Bitcoin on track to 100k according to stock to flow model - page 2.

7788bitcoin

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Quote from: Poker Player on August 04, 2020, 01:11:05 AM

The author of the stock to flow ratio says it's going to 100K.
In april he declared that this halving would show if his model was correct and seems to think so nowadays.
The model predicts bitcoin price according to the relation between the supply and the bitcoins being created.

Do we really need these flow models to understand that the price would rise after halving, all these models can only predict a small data that is presented and you cannot accurately say anything. The market is looking good and if this continues we might see a huge rally by the end of this year and next year.

Quote from: Poker Player on August 04, 2020, 01:11:05 AM

I don't know what to believe, with so many predictions, but this system has a clear logic behind it. I hope he is right, actually.

If you invested in bitcoin at the right time when the market went down, then you could make a good profit without much tension about the market going down.

jackg

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Quote from: royalfestus on August 04, 2020, 09:20:28 AM

With any prediction whatsoever, I like to know when we could start taking profit irrespective of the height of price we think the it could reach?

Probably anywhere between November and June, we should do a slow sideways up move to start and then we'll get a run off like we normally do.
Last time I traded based on a bounce of the first drop at $10k dunno what I'll do this time - thought I'd see how things go...

Spaffin

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Quote from: aioc on August 04, 2020, 09:24:11 AM

If they are so sure of their prediction why not put their dick at stake like what McAfee has done with his 1 million dollar prediction, for me it's not a prediction anymore Bitcoin will eventually land in that level but the biggest question is when and that what is why McAfee failed miserably he had it to soon.

It is possible that in a certain future we will still see the bitcoin price of about a million dollars, but since today Bitcoin is becoming an increasingly attractive investment for a wider range of investors, including the emergence of institutional capital on the cryptocurrency market, this is indicates an increased demand for Bitcoin and a corresponding price that will only rise. Therefore, it is completely possible that the next historical maximum will be in the range from 50k to 100,000 dollars.

BrewMaster

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i'd say that $100k is a good estimate for the minimum value for the next ATH in the current ongoing bull run that will probably end in mid 2021. but it is still the minimum not the best price that could be reached. if the past is any indication we should see at least $200k and if the exact repetition of previous couple of cycles happens then price should reach somewhere between $400k and $500k.

Harlot

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For all we know this might just be coincidental and all and Bitcoin was really headed up in the first place but with the prices the volume not rising the same way as the price right now I don't think we can call this a real break out. I'm impress with how PlanB explained his S2F model but even if he explained it well and he made a convincing price prediction about Bitcoin the model itself has flaws in which is really hard for you to put your whole fortune on. The S2F simply doesn't put into consideration the external factors that could greatly affect Bitcoin's price from laws even the pandemic can affect it as well as the pending recession the whole world will have so really banking in a model where it doesn't include external factors is a hard thing to do.

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Quote from: exstasie on August 04, 2020, 04:39:51 AM

What is this, the 5,000th time someone has predicted $100K? Anyone else getting tired of hearing about stock-to-flow? Roll Eyes

I'm one of them... Cry

I'm just amazed at how these people keep thinking that way and being bullish when seeing the market having an uptrend motion. It is likely they are living such unrealistic imagination which we know that it is really impossible. From $10k going straight to $100k...I can't sleep that if the market will surge that high.

Anyway, I was not disclosing for Bullrun to come but we should also be realistic here. And I don't think we need to be more speculative but rather to understand the market position and sees the nearest possible scenario to happen.

aioc

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If they are so sure of their prediction why not put their dick at stake like what McAfee has done with his 1 million dollar prediction, for me it's not a prediction anymore Bitcoin will eventually land in that level but the biggest question is when and that what is why McAfee failed miserably he had it to soon.

royalfestus

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Quote from: jackg on August 04, 2020, 01:18:11 AM

I've seen reasonable predictions of $60k-500k and to be honest, my own since about a year ago was at $300k...

Now I think we could definitely flash up to $120k at least, especially given how much the dollar has weakened in the past 6 months (against the euro) even with speculation debt in Europe will just be absorbed by the Northern eurozone countries to help the South - which has been rejected but may not be for long if it looks more attractive...

With any prediction whatsoever, I like to know when we could start taking profit irrespective of the height of price we think the it could reach?

GreatArkansas

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Quote from: casperBGD on August 04, 2020, 08:33:22 AM

agree, $100k is a long way from this point, if ever to be reached
first point on the road to $100k is to pass ATH, and that is a reasonable view from this point, could not tell the time-frame, but expect to happen in this halving cycle, probably with top in 2022

Nothing will be impossible especially on Bitcoin, we even drop for almost 50% in just a span of 24-48 hours.
These kind of thoughts are also the same like what happened when Bitcoin is around 1$, 100$ and when it's already made it's current all-time-high which is around $19,000.

LUCKMCFLY

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The model is very accepted and in fact I follow it, it is the only prediction model that I follow quite often because it is not an indicator, it is a model that has expiration, everything related to S2F is of great interest due to its fundamental level and technical. It is very likely that it will be fulfilled, not to say that it will already reach $ 100k, but in this market anything can happen and the good times should be taken advantage of, especially when you have those types of models to follow to improve the particular analysis .

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Quote from: bitbunnny on August 04, 2020, 08:00:41 AM

This is just a model that can't be taken for granted. To my opinion it might pass a very long time until Bitcoin reaches that level, if ever this will happen at all. So, these are more nice issues than reallity that actually might happen. It's better to put expectations to more realistic framework.

agree, $100k is a long way from this point, if ever to be reached
first point on the road to $100k is to pass ATH, and that is a reasonable view from this point, could not tell the time-frame, but expect to happen in this halving cycle, probably with top in 2022

bitbunnny

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This is just a model that can't be taken for granted. To my opinion it might pass a very long time until Bitcoin reaches that level, if ever this will happen at all. So, these are more nice issues than reallity that actually might happen. It's better to put expectations to more realistic framework.

Botnake

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More bullish prediction makes this market bullish, so I am not against with that prediction although it's quite high.
With the market getting bullish, expect more prediction like this, maybe $100k is my maximum price prediction for short term, beyond that price, it's looks unrealistic anymore, but that's just me though, and I could be wrong, you know, bitcoin moves in a mysterious way, lol.

If we get $100k this year, crypto market will be all over the news again, after the last bull run and dump afterwards, lots of anti bitcoin experts criticize us and bitcoin itself, but they'll prove themselves wrong when bitcoin break a new ATH, especially when it pump to $100k.

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Quote from: jossiel on August 04, 2020, 03:21:24 AM

It's a prediction so it can happen or it can't.

It is right. People can say anything about bitcoin price, and I will say that bitcoin will touch $100k-$200k, and we are free to tell our prediction to other people. The problem here is many people don't analyze or trying to get more information about what is going on with the market, and they just believe what other people say. If the prediction does not happen, people will blame that person, but actually, that will be on people's mistakes.

Right or wrong, we will see what will happen at the end of this year and next year, but before that happens, we need to prepare by saving more bitcoin, so when that happens, we are ready to sell bitcoin at the highest price. I am sure that bitcoin will increase so high and break the last ATH and make a new ATH. But we don't know what will happen in the future.

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Quote from: jossiel on August 04, 2020, 03:21:24 AM

Quote from: Poker Player on August 04, 2020, 01:11:05 AM

I don't know what to believe, with so many predictions, but this system has a clear logic behind it. I hope he is right, actually.

It's a prediction so it can happen or it can't.

You've got to play your own target price and don't rely much with predictions because they are guesses. You can ride if it hits $100k but it's your decision to have the right path.

But like others, I'm also waiting for bitcoin to hit $100k but it doesn't disable us to sell at the other range lower than that.

That is my personal perspective also since we don't accurately know if those figures will come up and there's a little fear for me when bear market strike in year 2017 since I lost a huge amount for that events. That's why I always prefer to set a target on when to secure the profit since I always assure by now to gain and not to believe on any hypes brought.

If the price would really come to that prediction then it's really good for us since might we will go to another level of acceptance and bitcoin will gain a massive attention.

But since it didn't surpass the old ATH yet maybe those figures will remains as predictions that we never know on when it will came.

exstasie

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What is this, the 5,000th time someone has predicted $100K? Anyone else getting tired of hearing about stock-to-flow? Roll Eyes

Quote from: thecodebear on August 04, 2020, 03:39:21 AM

Well I do think $100k is the big target for this market cycle.

Sort of like $10K was in 2017? The market ripped right through it on the way to $20K.

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Quote from: jossiel on August 04, 2020, 03:21:24 AM

Quote from: Poker Player on August 04, 2020, 01:11:05 AM

I don't know what to believe, with so many predictions, but this system has a clear logic behind it. I hope he is right, actually.

It's a prediction so it can happen or it can't.

You've got to play your own target price and don't rely much with predictions because they are guesses. You can ride if it hits $100k but it's your decision to have the right path.

But like others, I'm also waiting for bitcoin to hit $100k but it doesn't disable us to sell at the other range lower than that.

Expert, self-proclaimed ones, known authors or whoever he was, at the end of the day, it is just prediction. As you said, it may or may not happen at all. It is good to see high numbers but you need to be realistic with numbers when it is time for you to seriously invest. Because the truth is, you are on your own. So you need to think of the possible outcomes of your decision so you will not regret those consequences.

Natalim

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Good for us if this model will happen.
However, I think the market until now is still hard to predict but I always believe that $100k is not impossible to achieve in a short period of time.

As what we are all seeing now, the market is still bullish, anytime, another big push might result to a bitcoin price rally again, and honestly, I feel that this year the market would be bullish, and if we ever see a bull run, it would be very better compared to the last time.

thecodebear

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Well I do think $100k is the big target for this market cycle. I feel like that has been clear for the past couple of years. That doesn't mean it is gonna reach $100k, it could stall out early if big whales start jumping ship early from being nervous, or if transaction fees get insane once it hits $50k or something. But generally I expect it to be $100k peak this market cycle, give or take $20k or $30k or so. I think it is unlikely to be much out of that range, like say peak at $40k or peak at $160k, those just seem way too small and way too big for the next cycle.

I think stock to flow model generally holds up, but just as a very vague predictor.

Basically a reasonable prediction is that in 2021 or 2022 Bitcoin will hit another peak likely mid-to-high 5 digits or very low 6 digits.

jossiel

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Quote from: Poker Player on August 04, 2020, 01:11:05 AM

I don't know what to believe, with so many predictions, but this system has a clear logic behind it. I hope he is right, actually.

It's a prediction so it can happen or it can't.

You've got to play your own target price and don't rely much with predictions because they are guesses. You can ride if it hits $100k but it's your decision to have the right path.

But like others, I'm also waiting for bitcoin to hit $100k but it doesn't disable us to sell at the other range lower than that.

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