This may seem like a very high price for some but when I see all the improvements that the developers are implementing and that we are going to get a halving in 2020 it seems impossible to me that we are not going to surpass the previous all time high.
Why would the 2021 peak be only 2x the previous 4 year cycle peak? That seems to me a crazy low expectation, and will be a total 4 year cycle fail if it happens. $200k+ is the expectation looking at the past, if all it can muster is $40k I think it will crash and burn to the ground. On the way up, I expect $40k to be a fomo point, not a peak.
I wasn't going to acknowledge the poster saying $2k the year of halving, but I've got to ask why the hell the price would crash the same year the supply of new coins will be cut in half? what economic theory or price chart analysis supports that, barring some catastrophic event?
I agree with you that $40k is super low expectation. But I also believe that we will not see a $200k+ Bitcoin before 2026 either. Simply because influence of emission inflation decreases with each halving. Now inflation is 3.7% and in a year will go under 1.8%. And at 2025 halving to 0.83%. You notice how it decrease? This decrease also reduce the pressure on Bitcoins price increase. My prediction for next cycle ATH is somewhere between $100-150k