Bitcoin Price After 3rd Halving My Prediction

exstasie

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Quote from: U_Trune on May 03, 2020, 06:27:01 PM

*** First Halving ***
1Y before $2.50
Halving $12 (~5X)
Peak $1200 (~100X)

*** Second Halving ***
1Y before $280
Halving $650 (~2.5X)
Peak $19300 (~29X)

*** Third Halving ***
1Y before ~$6500?
Halving ~$8,125 (~1.25X)
Peak ~$68,000 (~8.4X) near Dec 2021 ?

This is so arbitrary.

The halving is an arbitrary date so it isn't a useful factor for extrapolation. Compare 2013 and 2017 vs stock-to-flow:

We can see in 2013, the market front ran the increased stock-to-flow from the 2012 halving. In 2017, the exact opposite happened, with the market slowly lagging behind stock-to-flow at halving and going parabolic a year later.

Measuring from the halving date doesn't account for these differences. It's an attempt to take the "4-year cycle" completely literally, which I don't expect to work out.

7788bitcoin

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Quote from: Febo on May 04, 2020, 11:22:46 AM

If next ATH will be only $68 I will be very disappointed. That means that a 80% drop will bring price to sub $20k. Yes the 80% drop can last only few days but still. It is very low. Anything under $100k will be bad.

I was thinking whether it was parody when you said seeing anything below $100k is bad, is it necessary to go down 80%, if it is not a bubble then it will not fall that far, it is a new market and the adoption rate is not yet in full affect as we only have around three hundred thousand transactions per day. To speculate about a huge rally like we had in the past we need to have a sound economic situation and there are major changes in that aspect.

sunsilk

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Quote from: Barbut on May 05, 2020, 08:06:25 AM

Quote from: sunsilk on May 04, 2020, 02:00:44 PM

$68,000 as the peak for 2021 eoy seems reasonable. I have heard about $100,000 to $250,000 as per Tim Draper but I don't want to go that much with those predictions because it's giving too much excitement and emotion unless it actually happens. I'm bullish with realistic price but if those high prices came into reality, well, that's good for all of us.

The analysis that you have used looks good with the cut to the percentage increase for the all halving that we went through.

It's a reasonable prediction, with this prediction I can agree! We will have time to earn more coins or to invest in Bitcoin until huge rise comes! Tim Draper is optimistic, we don't know what future holds, anything is possible with Bitcoin, and anyone can be optimistic about it! I am optimistic too, I believe that we will have new ATH in upcoming years, and like you said that will be good for all of us!

It's still the accumulation period. People that do think that bitcoin is expensive now might see a more expensive price of bitcoin after a year. They always complain like that but, never look to the positive impact that allows them to purchase at lower price during this situation.

Tim is one of the whales, AFAIK, he's holding around 20k-30k bitcoin and bought it around $600. The total value of his bitcoin holdings is already multiplied yet, he's still there. With all of those predictions, one message they are conveying and that is to keep holding and accumulating.

Barbut

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Quote from: sunsilk on May 04, 2020, 02:00:44 PM

$68,000 as the peak for 2021 eoy seems reasonable. I have heard about $100,000 to $250,000 as per Tim Draper but I don't want to go that much with those predictions because it's giving too much excitement and emotion unless it actually happens. I'm bullish with realistic price but if those high prices came into reality, well, that's good for all of us.

The analysis that you have used looks good with the cut to the percentage increase for the all halving that we went through.

It's a reasonable prediction, with this prediction I can agree! We will have time to earn more coins or to invest in Bitcoin until huge rise comes! Tim Draper is optimistic, we don't know what future holds, anything is possible with Bitcoin, and anyone can be optimistic about it! I am optimistic too, I believe that we will have new ATH in upcoming years, and like you said that will be good for all of us!

sunsilk

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$68,000 as the peak for 2021 eoy seems reasonable. I have heard about $100,000 to $250,000 as per Tim Draper but I don't want to go that much with those predictions because it's giving too much excitement and emotion unless it actually happens. I'm bullish with realistic price but if those high prices came into reality, well, that's good for all of us.

The analysis that you have used looks good with the cut to the percentage increase for the all halving that we went through.

beerlover

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This is probably the best guess I have ever seen on bitcointalk. I mean when we are talking about predictions, I have never seen one that is so close to resembling something realistic. I am not saying this will definitely happen or this is the one, I am not an expert neither so maybe I am totally wrong, maybe this prediction is very bad, how would I know, I am not warren buffet to talk about gains and losses.

However this is just my opinion that by far this is just the best out there, everyone talks about 100k+, even 400k+ and some crazy people talk about 1 million dollars per bitcoin. This right here is realistic while optimist at the same time, shows how quickly we can go up and shows the long term benefits of halving as well with the 68k too so it is great.

Febo

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Quote from: U_Trune on May 03, 2020, 06:27:01 PM

*** First Halving ***
1Y before $2.50
Halving $12 (~5X)
Peak $1200 (~100X)

*** Second Halving ***
1Y before $280
Halving $650 (~2.5X)
Peak $19300 (~29X)

*** Third Halving ***
1Y before ~$6500?
Halving ~$8,125 (~1.25X)
Peak ~$68,000 (~8.4X) near Dec 2021 ?

If next ATH will be only $68 I will be very disappointed. That means that a 80% drop will bring price to sub $20k. Yes the 80% drop can last only few days but still. It is very low. Anything under $100k will be bad.

ethereumhunter

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If the peak is about $68,000 then maybe that will be reasonable, but I don't know how higher bitcoin price can increase. We could only make a prediction about how higher bitcoin will be without we know the truth, but that can give hope for people to hold on tight their bitcoin. As long as we can have much bitcoin from now on, I guess that we don't have a worry with the high price of bitcoin because we can sell one by one of bitcoin, and I guess that will be enough for us to make a living from 1 bitcoin Grin

Wexnident

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Isn't a year and a half too long to see the peak? I expect it to either be around the start of 2021 or the middle of it. As for the max, I think it would range closely around $100k. Probably -+$50k of that amount. Still, I'm pretty sure the development of the market still relies on what the community is at now as well as any impacts the world has on the market. Currently, though, we could assume that the corona impact panic has already subsided seeing the recovery, but you never know about any possible 2nd wave of the said panic. It might not even be the same reason but rather one caused by a third party. Not saying that the impact would be negative as well, but if we ever see any big events, then the market may see a huge wave in it.

slaman29

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Was hoping to see mindblowing predictions but when you've already lived through 1 million dollar predictions nothing bites you anymore I guess.

So 68k only in 2021? Are we all suddenly so "rational" these days or are the charts just not showing us what we were hoping for?

niocexchange

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I think the peak will be max $15,000.

raidarksword

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I have read some articles that this halving will give the price of bitcoin on the rise and of course everyone are excited about it. So, this is going to be a good way and positive outcome for bitcoin to hit another ATH for this year despite the virus scare we experiencing right now. For sure this will halving will also drag altcoins on the rise and will bring crypto in another heights of success this year.

LbtalkL

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That was a good prediction, if you look into it, on the past halving about 120-150 days after, the bitcoin price was starting to goes up like crazy. I hope it will really happen again all we can do is speculate, if this happens this time for sure in the next halving it will happen too. It is like an event for bitcoin and crypto community. I have my own prediction I am gonna put it to $25k to $35K. Grin

ACCOUNTSTRADER

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In my opinion BTC will go up these days. Not only for Halving. The € and $ bill print machines are working like never.... And Nobody can print more BTC.
its my opinion, but trust me...

Wenbing

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There is gold in volatility..

Quote from: U_Trune on May 03, 2020, 06:27:01 PM

*** First Halving ***
1Y before $2.50
Halving $12 (~5X)
Peak $1200 (~100X)

*** Second Halving ***
1Y before $280
Halving $650 (~2.5X)
Peak $19300 (~29X)

*** Third Halving ***
1Y before ~$6500?
Halving ~$8,125 (~1.25X)
Peak ~$68,000 (~8.4X) near Dec 2021 ?

Great anaky analysis and forecast.
What I'm not really sure is if the 2020 Halving will lead to a high surge in price because the economic condition is dynamic.

Considering the fact that there was no Coronavirus in the past two Halvings

Paycoinzzz

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Quote from: U_Trune on May 03, 2020, 06:27:01 PM

*** First Halving ***
1Y before $2.50
Halving $12 (~5X)
Peak $1200 (~100X)

*** Second Halving ***
1Y before $280
Halving $650 (~2.5X)
Peak $19300 (~29X)

1Y before ~$6500?
Halving ~$8,125 (~1.25X)
Peak ~$68,000 (~8.4X) near Dec 2021 ?

It's easy to draw and look back on the past to believe in this dramatic growth. But the game will not be so easy, if it grows so strong, are we all rich?
getting rich so quickly is not easy. And I realize the rule of this market is, the market only pump strong when people are no longer feeling hopeless in this market. and the market only dumped strongly when people fomo about the price of bitcoin will increase sharply in the future. This is actually a big game for margin and futures traders, whales mainly manipulate bitcoin to make a profit from such trades.
So I'm feeling that Bitcoin will not be able to raise more than $ 15k this year, it will collapse when people are fomo it, for example right now. be careful.

davis196

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Merit: 913

This is the same old mistake.Predicting the price based on past price patterns...
So many people have to done it and yet there's no evidence that it will work exactly as predicted.
The Bitcoin price won't skyrocket because of the BTC halving.It will skyrocket because of mass adoption across the internet and mass adoption across the financial markets.Do you think the BTC halving has something to do with any of these?
This thread belongs to the Speculations forum.

pooya87

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Merit: 10611

it all seems too random to me. you are basically saying that the next rally and the final bubble is going to decrease in size drastically by about 70% without providing any reasons and i don't see any reason why the size of future rises should decrease by that much.

also considering the fact that each halving cycle is becoming A LOT bigger than previous ones your conclusion makes even less sense. the first halving cycle was a 9,591% rise whereas the second one was a 13,010% rise which is a 35% increase. so if anything we should see another 13000% rise or with the same increase it should be a 17,563% rise which is going from $3122 to $551,438

Free1bitco.in

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if your prediction is correct, then the end of this year the price of bitcoin can reach more than $ 20k. however, the highest point for halving this year is quite large, which is $ 68k. however, when you look at the data you provided, it makes sense. it's just that there are some conditions that halving doesn't have this year, namely the popularity of cryptocurrency. Well, I'm very sure that the popularity of cryptocurrency in 2017 has skyrocketed bitcoin prices. Well, I expected as you predicted, but I didn't really hope. even for the price of $ 20k, it is already very good.

jackg

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https://bit.ly/387FXHi lightning theory

I think the peak could be near either march or october personally (if there's a lot of excitement it'll be soon, if there isn't very much the bears can hold us back until march - when people think we're at the peak)...

If enough of retail get into this I could imagine 2 fairly sizeable crashes or (more likely) a delayed crash with a peak that starts to stabalise (depending on how many people try to move assets to crypto). I don't think we're currently looking very bright though in the short term so it might be interesting to watch (I imagine a fall in everything over the next few months isn't unlikely).

Estimates from the peak are anywhere around 60-300k also atm (that seems to be a range of the "reasonable" estimates if bitcoin does peak).

Topic: Bitcoin Price After 3rd Halving My Prediction (Read 223 times)