Bitcoin price bouncing from 200 Week MA - page 2.

Yatsan

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Quote from: dragonvslinux on June 05, 2023, 09:44:11 AM

As an update, price bounced found support from the 200 WMA for the fourth week in a row, but unable to sustain prices higher than $28K as price continues to consolidate:

To me it still looks like $27K to $30K is continuing to act as a distribution zone, with the next accumulation zone around $23K. Worst case there is Ichimoku cloud support around $20K.

Really hard to make a position at this moment. Price move sideways as usual but I guess a more volatile one. Price would reach $28k then fall $27-26.6k. Also with speculations of market price reaching $20k to fill the CME gap. Gigen that there are many speculations which revolves around this industry, I think it would be much better to wait until a more visible trend line appears before maaking a long position. But since the price is on sideways, it is quite good for scalp trades; jist manage the risk of how prices move at this moment. One thing I have observed as well are altcoins reaching their highest price since March and April on the current year. But I doubt things would be consistent; it is more of a bull trap.

dragonvslinux

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As an update, price bounced found support from the 200 WMA for the fourth week in a row, but unable to sustain prices higher than $28K as price continues to consolidate:

To me it still looks like $27K to $30K is continuing to act as a distribution zone, with the next accumulation zone around $23K. Worst case there is Ichimoku cloud support around $20K.

redwine49

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Quote from: hugeblack on May 31, 2023, 06:13:40 AM

Stability above 30k as it was a support level for a long time is the problem, so I think we have reached the breakeven point where the price cannot exceed the range of 26.3k as a bottom and 32k as a top, even the news coming from the Federal Reserve no longer moves the markets significantly, so without any news I don't expect anything to happen, at least for the next three months.

we will see what happen next. no, i think this is the support level 27k if we fall below 21k it will be disasster. as long as bitcoin can't break 36k i remain bearish.
the USD inflation rate is 5% per month. this is not good for crypto too and tether is rock and roll starting from january this year, while the other stablecoin reduce their number of tokens

hugeblack

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Stability above 30k as it was a support level for a long time is the problem, so I think we have reached the breakeven point where the price cannot exceed the range of 26.3k as a bottom and 32k as a top, even the news coming from the Federal Reserve no longer moves the markets significantly, so without any news I don't expect anything to happen, at least for the next three months.

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: redwine49 on May 30, 2023, 01:11:33 PM

Quote from: adaseb on May 30, 2023, 12:25:20 AM

I think the 200WMA lost its importance when it failed to hold last year. I got lucky with the 200 WMA during COVID crash and got a good average. Bought again last year when it touched and it was definitely not even close to support. Completely broke thru it.

So right now, especially being So flat, I don’t think it’s of any importance.

yes, i think the cross between 50 MA and 200 MA is importain because it's gonna tell us where bitcoin will go. but the question is when and where.

That is a very long-way away. Even if price were to go to $50K this year, it'd still take until the end of the year for these moving averages to cross-over. If I had to guess it would therefore be towards the end of the year if price continues to the upside, otherwise sometime next year if there is more consolidation this year. Given the 50 WMA has never crossed the 200 WMA in Bitcoin history, the only comparison would be something like the 50 & 100 WMAs crossovers. Notably in 2019 it took until the end of the year until these crossed back over, but that time price had already corrected by 50%.

In summary it will be important for the long-term start of a new bull market, but as for whether price continues to the upside or not this year it's more or less irrelevant.

redwine49

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Quote from: adaseb on May 30, 2023, 12:25:20 AM

I think the 200WMA lost its importance when it failed to hold last year. I got lucky with the 200 WMA during COVID crash and got a good average. Bought again last year when it touched and it was definitely not even close to support. Completely broke thru it.

So right now, especially being So flat, I don’t think it’s of any importance.

yes, i think the cross between 50 MA and 200 MA is importain because it's gonna tell us where bitcoin will go. but the question is when and where.
the US inflation rate isn't good but the good news it's going down now

dragonvslinux

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Quote from: adaseb on May 30, 2023, 12:25:20 AM

I think the 200WMA lost its importance when it failed to hold last year. I got lucky with the 200 WMA during COVID crash and got a good average. Bought again last year when it touched and it was definitely not even close to support. Completely broke thru it.

I generally agree and have been saying this since it broke as support last year, as overall it failed to act as support nor resistance. Arguably it didn't act as resistance this year either (as referenced in OP), and it could be said that the 20 Week MA was what recently supported price from around $25.8K as opposed to the 200 WMA. It's only real significance is that it's close to an average 4-year price, so a good DCA price.

Quote from: adaseb on May 30, 2023, 12:25:20 AM

So right now, especially being So flat, I don’t think it’s of any importance.

As for the claim that it's flat, it's still rising, even if not as aggressively as in previous years. For example by the end of the year it will be priced around $30K, which would be +20% within about 6 months, which is quite a reasonable increase. As long as price remains above $10K it will also continue to rise, as currently is replacing candles from Summer 2019 with current Weekly candles for reference sake.

gunhell16

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If I look at the movement of the value of bitcoin today on the chart, bitcoin can increase by 29k$ to 30k$, we will know that tomorrow. Because of the graph, only two things can happen, either the value decreases or increases.

In the image of the graph, traders seem to be able to see if Bitcoin's price value is going up. But when there is a recession in the US because of inflation, that's where a recession can actually occur. If that's the case, you can drop 23-25l$ to be fully priced.

adaseb

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I think the 200WMA lost its importance when it failed to hold last year. I got lucky with the 200 WMA during COVID crash and got a good average. Bought again last year when it touched and it was definitely not even close to support. Completely broke thru it.

So right now, especially being So flat, I don’t think it’s of any importance.

dragonvslinux

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Also worth noting that yesterday there were $44m short liquidations when price reached $28K, which was the biggest short squeeze in over a month. While this highlights that there were a lot of bears trying to short the price of Bitcoin, likely with relatively high leverage, this does arguably open the door for more shorts to enter the market, now they have been wiped out.

For now however, the Long/Short Ratio remains relatively balanced at 0.98, even slightly favouring the bulls.

dragonvslinux

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As can be seen from the chart below, Bitcoin bounced last week from the 200 Week MA (blue line) currently at $26.3K. This is now the third week price has tested this level as new support, but do you think it will hold?

Earlier in the month I didn't think it would act as much support, as only recently in February did it act as resistance for a couple of weeks, however this was arguably came from the 50 Week MA - purple line - that was trending downwards in bearish formation. Now the 50 WMA is trending back to the upside for the first time since 2021 with the 20 Week MA due to cross the 200 WMA in the coming weeks.

So far price has corrected around -16% from the yearly highs of $31K which is considerably less than the 20%+ correction from $25K to $20K earlier in the year. I still think a 20%-25% correction remains possible, which would be relatively normal after a 100% increase in recent months, taking price to around $23K to $25K, but so far on the Weekly time-frame price is looking optimistic for now.

What are your thoughts? Do you think the local low is in after the recent bounce from $26K to $28K, or does Bitcoin have further to correct before continuing to the upside?

Topic: Bitcoin price bouncing from 200 Week MA - page 2. (Read 228 times)