Topic: Bitcoin price downside may last 2 months — Analysis (Read 240 times)

Unless there is some macro event which happens sooner, like the Fed rate cuts in September. I dont see much activity with bitcoin until the election. Most markets are going to have tons of volatility leading up to the election. Especially Bitcoin since many know that Trump is pro bitcoin while Kamala definately isnt. If Trump loses Bitcoin might have a big red day and same with the stock market.

If he wins then the opposite will happen. Bitcoin might be able to finally test the $100K area, until Trump wins the election I dont see that happening. Many traders will most likely hedge going into the election because they know that Trumps defeat will be a huge blow to the crypto industry as a whole.

To be honest I do not see the price of bitcoin in this way that what will be the price after one month or after 2 months and the only reason for this is that no one knows exactly where will be bitcoin after a month or more than a month. I do believe that a bullrun begins somewhere at end of this year and it could be any time in the fourth quarter of 2024 or maybe in the first quarter of 2025 but again as I said we have no data to verify this except the historical bitcoin having cycle.

I feel like I am not ready for a full another month, I expect a big increase in September, not saying that it has to stand, it can go back down again after that, but first it needs to touch 70k. Of course I will not do anything if it doesn't, I am going to keep holding even if it doesn't touch those levels, I am going to keep on making the returns and just keep on accumulating, but I will be feeling a lot more at unease during that period.

My logic is that we should be going above 60k and stay there for the rest of this month hopefully, then reach to 70k, and I am not saying like 75k or break ATH or anything, 70k is enough, doesn't even have to be 71k, and then it can either drop or keep going up, there is nothing wrong with that. This is why I think it's quite important to remember that we are going to see a big increase, we need to end up with a good return whenever we can and this should be one of those periods. It has to be very careful period.

Yes, I agree that the market will definitely dump a bit before the Bitcoin bull run starts, but currently the dumping in the market may be one of the signs of the Bitcoin bull season. But bear in mind that the bull run in the market is sure to start and it will start in 2024. Everyone can invest following the current market dumping because now may be the right time to invest and later this opportunity may not be there. When the bull season starts in the Bitcoin market I think it will go above $100,000 if the market goes above $100,000 then you will surely start regretting. So those who haven't invested and are waiting to invest may take your investment but the market may not go down any further

I’m mentally prepared for another month, at most two months before we finally break out of this sideways range we’ve been in since late February this year.

If the past is anything to go by we break upwards in October and make new ATHs before the end of the year. The peak of this cycle will be next year though.

So unfortunately the price of Bitcoin is still struggling in the price region for the last weeks and up until now, this have shown us two data of analysis which are resistance and bul tendency because at some point with this week's Bitcoin have made several attempt to reach at least 62k or even more that is very important to take note of because at such Bitcoin is doing one positive sign, because the levels of price dump is not up to the gian that the market have made.

Although the month of August have been the most volitile month ever and at some point in shows that we should be prepared for whatever price direction that we may likely see in the market for the rest of the month.

I think you should still have good optimism for the price of bitcoin in 2024 and 2025. The market never goes up forever, so price corrections should be considered normal. It is true that there is panic among investors and traders involved in the market, but all that will end when the market starts to reverse direction. The wait may not be long, of course we have to enjoy the swing in peace.

Yoshie, are you a long-term investor?
If true, then be patient and wait for price recovery. $100k is not that far out of reach even though bitcoin is currently trading at $60k. I am optimistic about the potential for a good recovery in the remaining years to mid-2025, so I will remain calm about the current market conditions.

Yes, that's an interesting speculation, if you have to say two months of a bear market, will this ten year month have a bull market, I don't think so, We are currently seeing various issues regarding Bitcoin prices and market speculation for this year, especially 2024. I once read about Iran vs. Israel, if that happens the impact on the crypto market or Bitcoin could have negative things, for that reason if I speculate the bear market continues to the point of a long recovery, perhaps recovery again in 2027.

But whatever happens, hope all will be fine especially for crypto users in all sectors, my hope is to see Bitcoin price above $100k someday.

We can disregard the analysis because Bitcoin has already showed signs of recovery and it did it more fast than anyone expected. I initially saw sense in the analysis shared by the OP but with this recovery, it just shows we should not think that the market will always behave in a specific way. It might turn out that during the time that they predicted that the market will be bullish, we might get a small correction. This recovery should also tell us to not say we will wait before we buy Bitcoin, because the direction of the market can change anytime from dipping to rising. The courageous investors that bought the dip, are already in profits while those scared investors that sold, thinking the dipping will continue and stay below $50,000, will be regretting that they did not buy the dip but lets see what the market does next.

History is more than enough to have the courage that you have about the price to be fair, because if you know what you are doing then you are going to be doing fine, and many people are not aware of what they are doing and they make a mistake because of that.

I believe that we are going to cause a lot of trouble if we are not careful, and because of that the result should not be that easily understandable, it is going to be something that will take some time. I personally believe that when you check the past in crypto and see that it recovered each time, I find that to be a good enough data, I do not think that we need more data than that, it should be something that will not take too much time and it will recover quickly.

You need to know that the market always has new entrants every day and not everyone can buy bitcoin for less than 20k or less than 50k like us, there are many people buying bitcoin for 60k -70k. So it is understandable that they scream at what is happening because they are losing money and no one feels comfortable if their investments lose money.

Not to mention, there are also many predictions in the market that the bullish season has ended and we are entering the bearish season, making the market even more confusing, especially for newbies. People who do not have too much knowledge and have never experienced the rigors of the market.

Currently am seeing bitcoin market price pumping as it has already made it to $59,000 already and still raising strong resistance to go bearish until it achieved $60,000 and above, this also indicate that there are times in which the market price lasted than we expected on dip while in some other aspect, we realized a quick recovery over the market as we are having now, we shouldn't be surprised if we see bitcoin back on $70,000 before the weekends, even though many would have expected a prolonged bear due to the recent dip that sent the market back to $48,000, the recovery is getting more faster as expected.

I can’t agree less with you, many people keep screaming how we are going through a bearish period like they don’t expect it to happen. For over a year, the bitcoin price has been bullish and still remains bullish, we were at $16k at the start of 2023 and got it multiplied by more than 4 just a year later. The run had us got a new ATH right before the halving which shows that bitcoin was the stage of been over bought at that price, so a correction was definitely going to hit and That’s what we are facing currently. It is just a temporary correction but it will take time, before we start riding to the price of 6 figures again.

I agree that the $50k region or below will be tested again the way price is moving, if we study it well there is a price range between $54k and $58k, i believe the sellers are still in control and if the buyers do not have the volume to push this price above the current resistance at $58k and also $60k we might see a sharp drop from that price and test the $50k support again.

The BTC price action is only bearish in the near term.  Walk around navigating with a microscope and you are going to make many mistakes bumping into things while overly focusing on only the immediate foreground.

View BTC over a year or even just year to date and it remains quite bullish.  It is even healthy for the pullbacks to explore this whole price range running upto the old ATH.

I think we will revisit the 50k area and I will state this in the simpliest terms which is we lack volume in this current price action.  We have a serious of rising daily candles but its towards resistance and remains fragile.    I imagine the price action must be tested and proven strong a few more times; 2 months isnt a long time.

I doubt it, I understand that there are some mathematical equations going into this and indicators and charts, so saying that "I doubt it" doesn't really give that much trust compared to all of that analysis.

But the one thing I have on my side is history, we have seen in history SO MANY times that it crashed and bounced back, as recently as last month, we have bottomed at 53k last month, and then we jumped all the way to 66k on the same month, as you can see it's possible and happened within the same period. I am not saying that it's going to happen again, maybe I am wrong and maybe it will not happen again but I do trust that there is a possibility of that, and that is what I like about this situation, the possibility.

I believe that we are going to see something major changing and the price will recover. All of this period isn't really that complicated, we have seen this before, we have seen crashes, and this is just another one of those, nothing more than that. I believe that we are going to end up with some good return without a doubt, it's going to be something we can make it happen, so it shouldn't really be worried about it and could be something that could profit us.

Hard to see, but if we talk about the US elections, it's really up to who the US voters are going to put as their next President. We all know though that between the two, if we talk about being pro-Bitcoin or crypto in general it will be Donald Trump.

But again, there are a lot of time for Kamala Harris to make a comeback and make U-turn and cut the lead of Donald Trump. So it's going to be a big deal for crypto enthusiast as what will be the landscape of the politics in the US and it has a big effect on us in November as we will know who will be the next President. And then another bull in January next year as he or she will be officially sitting and take the oath of office, (not gonna lie though, I wanted Trump to win because of his pro-Bitcoin stance).

#$@& , its a crypto bloodbath we are experiencing right now  and am not looking at the charts for now either because it's that bad

Just the other day was reading some articles or is it a market analysis by Binance CEO and he didn't beat about the bush and said it as it that markets are still going to tank because it's not yet over ...and already over a billion dollars has been liquidated and not sure what to expect now because so many external factors are dictating what crypto does and this is one of the reasons I have never been a fan of institutional money as this comes with a lot of manipulation....

Otherwise 2months is a long time and I think we can rebound in this time frame and I won't remain bearish either...
For my market analysis, I see price playing around 55-60K  in the next few months because big boys will be shopping for the discounted coins!

I think the next important event that we are looking at is the election, nothing else is going to make the price of Bitcoin to be more bullish except during the election time and the election will be in November which is 2 months away therefore the analysis is not far from being accurate but I have done some research too and I notice Bitcoin does not wait untill a news happens before it starts rising but instead it will rise before the news and during the news we can expect some pull back. The market will not wait for 2 months before we can see some bulls. The market already started to climb back up but the analysis is not wrong if they intend to say we will see more bullish movement during the election time in November.

To answer that question we first have to try to find the reason why bitcoin dropped and is struggling to rise up. Then by knowing the reason we can answer it better.

I believe there are two main contributing reasons why bitcoin crashed like this: (1) recession (2) new global tensions (armed conflict)

So do you think any of these two are going to change in the next two months?
There are 3 directions to go: getting worse means more dump, getting better means big rises starting fast as money rushes back to the market and finally situation remaining the same means uncertainty which translates into sideways but with a small upward momentum.

(1) As far as recession goes, it has only been getting worse over the past 2 or 3 years. I've been talking about it and it has created the sell pressure that is preventing the rally to bring the price to $500k. As we saw a couple of days ago US didn't cut rates and keeping it worsened the US recession. Some other countries even increased their rates and the result was a lot of markets around the world got dumped. That included Bitcoin.
If they cut rates, we could see a rise. I won't hold my breath for that.

(2) As for the armed conflict, it is only going to get worse for the time being. The terrorist attack Israel committed inside Iran has only forced Iran to retaliate against Israel. There is no escaping that and it will be a massive strike. Until then the tensions will remain high and we should expect volatility in markets due to uncertainty. Hopefully that doesn't escalate and it ends after Iran punishes the Israeli terrorists so this contributing factor (sell pressure) can be lifted from the market. But if it does escalate, then we should expect all markets crash even harder than they did a couple of days ago. Even more so if it starts affecting the energy market (like oil price shooting to over $100 again). From there it depends on the nature of that escalation and its scale, it could be global...

No, I don't think we will remain bearish for up to 2 months and I also I'm not certain the bullrun starts after that period of time.

Historical pattern plays a part in future price actions, but that has changed significantly since after the halving of 2020. At this point in time, the last ATH should be from the last cycle, but it is just few months ago before the halving, so I wouldn't be surprised if this also changes.