Truth is, Bitcoin has way higher chance to fail than succeed.
i see it as the opposite actually, the chance to succeed are far greater than the one to fall, this is due to the progress that bitcoin has done in all this years
I would say the chances of success, in the sense that the world uses it like a currency (like usd or rmb or yen right now in their respective countries) is close to 0%. By close, I don't mean 1% or 2%. I mean 0. something.
The chances of success, in the sense that bitcoin or some blockchain survives is probably at least 50%, maybe even 60-70%.
The chances of bitcoin's price going waaaaay up in the case that bitcoin survives, is probably something like 60-70%*.
So I would say the chances of bitcoin succeeding (i.e giving us a return, screw those libertarian ideals) is 60-70% * 60-70% = 36-49%.
*It seems possible for bitcoin's price to remain relatively low (2 or low 3-digits) and only used by a niche group of companies/people for whatever reason say remittances or whatever, and said bitcoin companies are still profitable (for a VC). I am pretty sure VCs aren't betting that bitcoin will be used as a global currency in the future. They must've taken into consideration the outcome that bitcoin survives and brings a certain amount of economic activity without going completely mainstream, and I bet to them this scenario is likely.
