I want to remind everyone posting here USD values, that it isn't sure if the USD is still around in 5 years. (same goes for the EUR, with a higher probablility). So, maybe some more general measurements are necessary … AU is an example.
I think most statements involving USD assume a constant USD value, even if that's not the reality. So what actually is meant is the value of today's USD. 
Topic: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013 - page 2. (Read 3598 times)
Another stab at it.
100 000 000 000 000 USD (one hundred trillion US dollars), give or take one-two zeroes, lol
P.S. BTW the guess in my post above still stands i.e. both 100 000 000 000 USD and 1 oz of gold could be possible at the same time.
100 000 000 000 000 USD (one hundred trillion US dollars), give or take one-two zeroes, lol
P.S. BTW the guess in my post above still stands i.e. both 100 000 000 000 USD and 1 oz of gold could be possible at the same time.
~$50
Now this is my kind of thread (as opposed to "Bitcoin price in 5 days"). LOL
Optimistically, parity with 1 oz of gold in 5 years. But it is possible that it will be much more than that.
Optimistically, parity with 1 oz of gold in 5 years. But it is possible that it will be much more than that.
I want to remind everyone posting here USD values, that it isn't sure if the USD is still around in 5 years. (same goes for the EUR, with a higher probablility). So, maybe some more general measurements are necessary … AU is an example.
I think it will defy any attempt to predict its true value.
I think we will be close to a 5 billion dollar market cap by 2018.
I say if people quote bitcoin prices they should denominate it in gold. USD won't exist for long.
Currently 1 BTC = 0.4 gram of gold
Thus BTC market cap is about 4 tons of gold. Assuming a max of 21 million coins and equal wealth distribution between bitcoin and gold, we're likely to see a BTC market cap of around 8,000 tons of gold (*/ 2), which would price a BTC at 400 gram of gold, or 21,200 USD by TODAYS gold price.
Currently 1 BTC = 0.4 gram of gold
Thus BTC market cap is about 4 tons of gold. Assuming a max of 21 million coins and equal wealth distribution between bitcoin and gold, we're likely to see a BTC market cap of around 8,000 tons of gold (*/ 2), which would price a BTC at 400 gram of gold, or 21,200 USD by TODAYS gold price.
75% probability of $0.
25% probability of $10,000+.
25% probability of $10,000+.
This is probably spot on.
That's basically suggesting all or nothing, which seems like the least likely scenario in a short 5 years.
Bitcoin has gone from essentially not a money to here in about 3 years. It's gunna be happening for real in 5 or never.
3 oz AU
5$ 
This. Or in the midst of a double digit bubble (like now)...boom and bust, just like the american economy.
I wish to get on a time machine in order to have a look at price of bitcoin in 2018.
75% probability of $0.
25% probability of $10,000+.
25% probability of $10,000+.
This is probably spot on.
That's basically suggesting all or nothing, which seems like the least likely scenario in a short 5 years.
Those odds are a delicious gamble though.
75% probability of $0.
25% probability of $10,000+.
25% probability of $10,000+.
This is probably spot on.
Over 10000 USD or possibly even over 100000 USD by 2018 are by far the most probable. If Bitcoin does not reach 1% market share by 2018 it is because it has failed drastically, so I will also give a small but finite probability of way under 0.01 USD.
As for the range of 0.01 USD to 10000 USD very unlikely.
As for the range of 0.01 USD to 10000 USD very unlikely.
I have to say, I kind of fall into this line of thinking.
75% probability of $0.
25% probability of $10,000+.
25% probability of $10,000+.
Over 10000 USD or possibly even over 100000 USD by 2018 are by far the most probable. If Bitcoin does not reach 1% market share by 2018 it is because it has failed drastically, so I will also give a small but finite probability of way under 0.01 USD.
As for the range of 0.01 USD to 10000 USD very unlikely.
As for the range of 0.01 USD to 10000 USD very unlikely.
2010 - $0.50
2011 - $5.00
2012 - $13.00
2013 - $50.00
2014 - $100.00
2015 - $200.00
2016 - $400.00
2017 - $800.00
2018 - $1600.00
So my guess is at least $1600 per btc
2011 - $5.00
2012 - $13.00
2013 - $50.00
2014 - $100.00
2015 - $200.00
2016 - $400.00
2017 - $800.00
2018 - $1600.00
So my guess is at least $1600 per btc
1000.32 I am six significant figures sure.
Between $200-$2000
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