Topic: Bitcoin price predictions based on actual data / mathematics - page 2. (Read 244 times)

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Quote from: thestupidfool on March 28, 2021, 09:46:40 PM

Now in 2020 we know btc can never have all the worlds finance on it because it can only do 7 tx per second or some other very low amount (visa alone does 1700 tx per second)

You need to learn some actual data about Bitcoin, before you start these types of discussions.  The Bitcoin blockchain only supports a low rate of transactions; but Bitcoin, the currency, can support a practically unbounded transaction rate on L2, L3, and otherwise off-chain (using the blockchain as an occasional settlement layer).

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Quote from: thestupidfool on March 28, 2021, 09:46:40 PM

https://sourceforge.net/p/bitcoin/mailman/bitcoin-list/?viewmonth=200901

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and
becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world.  Then the
total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all
the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household
wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With
20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

Eh, can’t resist...

If we were to make some similarities with bitcoin and stocks, not every predictions are based on nothingness, there is some math and data analytics behind some of them and saying that 99.9% of people making predictions is a farcical claim. Although I am saying that there is a math behind this I am not saying that it is easy to do that, they do complex calculations for that as far as I know.

For as long as there is fiat, a portion of it will always go to Bitcoin. And 1% is a little too low an estimation.

BTC will never be a world currency? Will? Never? It already is. Slow time? Try fiat, the clearing alone takes days. High cost? Try sending billions in BTC, your fee won't even reach a hundred dollars.

We'll see if buyers will drain out in the future. For me, it won't. For as long as power over money is monopolized by the few people inside central banks and governments, there will be buyers. For as long as money is controlled by human beings, there will be abuse, and there will be reasons to therefore buy Bitcoin.

Retail investors tend to reduce their capital flows into market. If taking the Google Trend chart as a visual indicator for retail investment, it has been in stagnant phase. Per chart rule, will it has a dump before getting a new all time high?

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=bitcoin

Since 2020, with institutional investment hype, most of monthly mined bitcoins were bought by institutes. GrayScale bought a lot of bitcoin every month since 2020.

Everything you wanted to know about Grayscale BTC Trust but were afraid to ask!
Grayscale is buying BTC 54% faster than it is mined so far in 2021
https://twitter.com/n3ocortex/status/1354908960025927682

Ok thanks both for the responses.

So there is still room for growth in retail investors https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/how-many-bitcoin-users/ but there is still a max limit there

Modern websites say "In 2019, total world wealth grew by $9.1 trillion to $360.6 trillion"

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-88-trillion-world-economy-in-one-chart/

So if 1% of all that went into btc that would be $3.6 trillion which makes btc go about 4 fold

and retail vs institutional investors looks around even https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-retail-flows-jpmorgan

btc will never be a world currency because of the slow tx time, high cost, and low tx per second (all modern cryptos are better than it) so its only function now for big businesses like tesla (yes they sell cars for btc but waiting 1 hour and paying 20 usd on a 100k transaction is not a big problem) and investment banks etc is the hope it goes up in the future.

So eventually buyers have to run out and it may be a lot sooner than 2140 when the last coin is mined.

The food's not so tasty.

But let me remind you that 99.9% of people making predictions are basing their predictions on nothing but wishes and daydreams. There is no math in there.

Let me ask you a few questions, though. Why would the people in the future stop buying BTC if the currency is BTC itself? If the safest, cheapest, fastest, most private way to move money from one continent to another is through BTC, why would the future run out of people buying BTC? If the world is already filled with piles of cash and yet the governments are still continuously printing unlimited money, why would the people suddenly stop wanting to have BTC?

This is difficult since it is still difficult the inflows of money to Bitcoin, like where it came from.
But I believe if you combined retail investors, they are huge.

Very large numbers speaking with the institution. Institutional investors are the biggest player for Bitcoin, they will be the one will drive the price of Bitcoin crazy on my own.

Yes, because for sure some miners are using their profits to pay their expenses on mining, (hardware, electricity, etc expenses). But this time, there are still a lot of willing to buy Bitcoins, so for me, miners selling their coins is okay at the moment.

Hi all
I own no btc but mainly XRP and a few other cryptos, and these represent, last time I checked about 3% of my investment money (most in index stocks/bonds with some gold)

I was reading the old bitcoin mailing list archives and saw this from 2009

https://sourceforge.net/p/bitcoin/mailman/bitcoin-list/?viewmonth=200901

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and
becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world.  Then the
total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all
the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household
wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With
20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

So the possibility of generating coins today with a few cents of compute
time may be quite a good bet, with a payoff of something like 100 million
to 1! Even if the odds of Bitcoin succeeding to this degree are slim,
are they really 100 million to one against? Something to think about...



Now in 2020 we know btc can never have all the worlds finance on it because it can only do 7 tx per second or some other very low amount (visa alone does 1700 tx per second) so we can assume the $10 mil per coin price prediction is wrong (apparently the worlds economy is now over 1 quadrillion  (1000 trillion) but lets just stick with that 100-300 range that got the above poster the 10 mil answer).

So the question is realistically how high can bitcoin go?
How much money do retail investors have left to put into it?
How much money are institutional investors likely to put into it in the future?
I read bitcoin miners sell almost 100% of their coins so there has to be an influx of new money from somewhere.

For the price of btc to double (55k usd to 110k usd) it has to go from its current market cap of USD 1 trillion to USD 2 trillion. Then to double again (110k usd to 220k usd)  it needs a 4 trillion market cap. Where is all this money coming from?

The people in 2021 saying btc will go to 10 mil or 100 mil etc what mathematics are they basing their predictions on? Or are they just making numbers up?

I don't know the answers to these questions but it seems one day at least the buyers will have to run out and btc drops massively maybe to 0.

Food for thought.