Bitcoin price theory - page 2. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Baby Dragon

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Quote from: Nightwatchman on May 04, 2017, 11:30:40 PM

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

I think in the near future the price of bitcoin will increase and becomes more expensive. The price of bitcoin will depend in the market and to the people who use it. The supply and demand of bitcoin also affect the price to change.

Nightwatchman

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Quote from: Jherek on May 05, 2017, 02:42:02 AM

Your theory only works if there is a regular influx of users to bitcoin, which I think is very likely to happen in the future because how the bitcoin technology has progressed and more importantly how many merchants are starting to accept bitcoin.

This point makes complete sense, but my theory is a bit different and works on no great increase in demand; rather, it relies on a contraction of supply. My theory, put simply, is that as the Bitcoin price rises, holders begin to imagine its potential to continue this price growth (treating more as an investment than a day-to-day currency), and then become less likely to sell. Further, as time passes there is a greater belief in the technology, which means Bitcoin becomes less susceptible to news events. Any actual in demand further fuels this.

ArdiPrabowo

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bitcoin price analys without theory
bitcoin price only suply and demand, and then about bad news or good news, example bad new rejected SEC, bitfinex hack in 2016, pboc investesigation and audit china exchanger and more

Jherek

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Quote from: Nightwatchman on May 04, 2017, 11:30:40 PM

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

Your theory only works if there is a regular influx of users to bitcoin, which I think is very likely to happen in the future because how the bitcoin technology has progressed and more importantly how many merchants are starting to accept bitcoin.

If there is a regular influx of users, then demand goes up. The supply of bitcoin is essentially unchanged because right now already over 2/3 of the coins that will ever exist has already been issued. And block halving just happened.

If demand goes up, and supply stays virtually the same, then price goes up too.

btcney

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Quote from: Nightwatchman on May 04, 2017, 11:30:40 PM

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

This definitely makes sense and definitely works on bitcoin as well because bitcoin is a disinflationary currency that is designed to hold its value against inflation in the first place. The monetary base is growing, but at an ever slowing pace every halving.

I wouldn't say that currently we are "steadily" climbing, I would claim that a few days ago but right now the price has just shot up $200 in two days, the first signs of a bubble. It could burst, it could keep going, but in the end there will be adjustments.

But interesting proposition.

Kakmakr

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Quote from: Amph on May 05, 2017, 01:32:29 AM

i believe the trust from people only come because some government are accepting and regulating bitcoin, bitcoin is always seen as a tool for criminal and not trusted by the average joe

but if their government say, this is now a good thing, they will trust it blindly, when this happen other country will join the party slowly, and the confidence increase, thus making the value go up

No, people wants some kind of guarantee that the currency that they use are being supported by their government and that they are operating within the legal framework required by that government. There will be no use to build and invest in a company that are based on Bitcoin, if the government is going to shut you down for using a "illegal" payment network or "illegal tender"

Many people still believe a currency is this, " a generally accepted form of money, including coins and paper notes, which is issued by a government and circulated within an economy. "

Once a government gives it's support for Crypto currencies that economy will grow with the influx of new capital from countries where Bitcoin is banned. ^smile^

Amph

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i believe the trust from people only come because some government are accepting and regulating bitcoin, bitcoin is always seen as a tool for criminal and not trusted by the average joe

but if their government say, this is now a good thing, they will trust it blindly, when this happen other country will join the party slowly, and the confidence increase, thus making the value go up

Nightwatchman

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Quote from: RoommateAgreement on May 05, 2017, 12:11:16 AM

but bitcoin also has another aspect to it: beign a currency and a good one at that with the decentralization and all the privacy it gives customers. and that is a big factor that you shouldn't forget when you are thinking about adoption and the price going up.

Yes, I agree with that and in a way it underlines my main supposition: that the more legitimate it becomes as either/both a currency and an investment, the stronger the price base beneath it. I'm no economics scholar but given sentiment plays a role in the success or failure of any investment, legitimacy of the technology surely has an effect on its ongoing viability.

digaran

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🖤😏

In other words you just described what Bitcoin is and how people currently are interacting with it, of course they need to make sure the network is

stable and any of it's rules are extremely difficult to change, the fact that Bitcoin has enough support which made manufacturers and an entire industry

of miners to come out from the other side and when they see there are truly some serious people spending huge amounts of cash to get involved with mining it.

They're all the indications of a strong and solid network unlike other alternatives with basically a few medium miners deciding everything for the coin.

RoommateAgreement

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Bazinga!

that sounds plausible but only if you are thinking about bitcoin as something like Gold which people just invest in and hold so the price goes up and more investors come and buy and hold, .... and price goes up.
and that is true about bitcoin.

but bitcoin also has another aspect to it: beign a currency and a good one at that with the decentralization and all the privacy it gives customers. and that is a big factor that you shouldn't forget when you are thinking about adoption and the price going up.

crwth

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I think it's already been proven by its price now it really skyrocketed and it's awesome. We know that our generation is now in the technological stage and it will continue to improve and Bitcoin would improve more. It's one of the innovations that is worth investing on.

Nightwatchman

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Quote from: davis196 on May 04, 2017, 11:43:17 PM

I quess you are right,but what if all the holders start panic selling because of some event?
Most of the crypto users still think that bitcoin is a "stock" rather than real money.
This perception will change sooner or later.

It would be interesting to see if a panic event -- say, war -- had this effect or in fact further fortified Bitcoin as a safe haven for wealth. Perhaps Bitcoin is not yet that robust but I can see it being a wiser default option to fiat currencies than precious metals in the future.

davis196

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Quote from: Nightwatchman on May 04, 2017, 11:30:40 PM

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

I quess you are right,but what if all the holders start panic selling because of some event?
Most of the crypto users still think that bitcoin is a "stock" rather than real money.
This perception will change sooner or later.

Nightwatchman

newbie

Activity: 60

Merit: 0

I have no great basis for this thought beyond it being "gut feel".

My sense is that as Bitcoin becomes more expensive, its price base will become more insulated. That is, the massive valleys we've seen on the historical price charts will become less likely to occur.

My thinking is this: the longer the technology holds up, the greater people's faith in its ability to survive and thrive. In turn, this creates a seller's market, where holding for investment purposes becomes a more compelling proposition. That means more people will buy and hold their Bitcoin, banking on its potential to continue to appreciate. Rinse and repeat... the price continues northwards.

The ultimate result in this scenario will be less liquidity of larger transactions.

Of course, so many factors (macro, micro, technical, etc) combine to contribute to the price of Bitcoin, but this seems to me to explain, in part, why we are on a steady upward trajectory at the moment.

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