Topic: Bitcoin price will be deflated!!! by block halving!!!!! - page 2. (Read 2709 times)

Unlike you, I can't possibly ascribe the price increase that happened through 2013 to the halving in 2012, if that was your point, by any means...

There is nothing that could convince me otherwise

I still don't see logic in your reasoning. You seem to be confusing cause and effect, which is crucial here (as elsewhere). It is not the production that goes down in the first place, but the revenue flow that drops first (twice as much, wtf)...

Look, the blockchain reward is bitcoin production/distribution. There are new bitcoin coming into the miner's hands every single time they solve a block. Like with anything else (oil, coffee beans, gold, etc), when the production goes down and production prices remain, the price tends to go up. If we use a farmer as an example, say there's a drought... he sells less product, but he still has to make a living; sure, he may have to sell some of his grain stored up in a silo, but (assuming a purely local market) that's not going to affect the price all that much as it continues.
Let's assume the miners are going to have to sell their stashes... are their stashes 25BTC per block mined? Think about it, that is a huge number, and quite ludicrous. How long would their stashes hold the price down?
Look, here's a little timeline of what happened last time the halving took place. Jan-June 2012, prices were bouncing around $7 and $3 (mostly around $5-$6). Aug 2012, price goes up to $16, drops to $7 and bitcoin trades for a price under $9 one last time. Halving day 2012, price doesn't really move from $11-$13, the regular price. March 2013, bitcoin is sold for under $43 one last time.
I'm confident that whatever price bitcoin is at on Jan 2016, we're going to be trading it at double that price (at least) in march 2017. But only time will tell.

Okay, let it be half as much, but I still don't understand what you mean by halving the production (not reward), and how their earnings won't be two times less (shame on you!)...

Twice as less?... Don't you mean... half? Anyways, their production will be half, not their earnings. The bitcoin price isn't going to remain the same before, during, nor after the halving. Imagine there is a shortage of oil, and some of the oil producing giants have a stash of oil for themselves, what's more likely to happen, that they sell at  higher price (bringing the price up somewhat proportionately to how much the production reduced) or that they sell everything they have at pre-shortage price? You're talking nonsense if you think the miners are going to sell at about this price after the halving. You're talking nonsense if you think they're going to sell at below $500 (about a year) after the halving.
Time will tell. I would make a bet of some sort, but that proves meaningless in these anonymous forums.

As long as the demand does not increase I don't think halving will have a big effect on the price.

Especially considering most miners are not even selling that much of their coins, the supply won't also magically be cut in half.

Market sees the future... And it sees nothing in it

It doesn't matter if it there is a logical argument for or against a price devaluation, at this point the halving is on everyone's mind and make no mistake, there will be movement upwards with the price. Market = psychology game.

While there are few possible scenarios with accompanying facts to support each of it pointing to either a price increase or price decrease which we can't possibily predict for sure...one thing that will be good for bitcoin would be that volatility will start to tone down. With less supply getting generated for every block solved, whether the miner decides to hold on to it longer or dump it immediately to the open market, at least after the halving, the guy now has less amount of coins on hand to influence that.

Reading the article i don't find any word about the deflating. So i don't understand the title of article. His article end with this phrase which is and the conclusion of it:

"What we can tell from this purely theoretical analysis, though, is that aside from speculative price fluctuations, Bitcoin’s approaching halving will likely be anti-climactic at best, and very troubling at worst."

So nothing new under the sky. I think that the article is a good analyse but without end. Must annalists can enumerate the facts which he wrote in its article. The problem is that are few or no one which at the end write if the price will be deflated or not. This is important for the people and above all for us bitcoiners. Maybe the price will go high because will be produced less coins but this can be discussed. People can lose its interest for bitcoin exactly for this fact. So this fact can go dawn the price. In few words: the author of the article has right in one thing. We might wait trouble.

Nice post. +1
But electricity prices will never go down just merely for Bitcoin miners. And miners closing their mining rigs and giving up Bitcoin mining is also close to truth possibility.

Yes we do. Or price will raise or half miners will close their farms. Or electricity price will halve. Or, ...

Or a bit of everything listed above.

If it had to do something with trading then it would have been in the trading section. Don't you have that info?

It may turn out that many peeps will be quite happy just to jump the ship in time. But you can always try to short if you are that type of a person. But beware, in the case of total collapse exchanges may start to fall like dominoes...

In all honesty, nobody knows what a hell will happen! Maybe a halving price increase is already calculated in today's price, we don't know this. Also, maybe it will come to a price decrease as it won't be as profitable for miners to mine as before halving.

Look at the Litecoin halving this year, nothing happened. We will find out this in June-July of the next year will the same thing happen to Bitcoin.

OK. Now, how can you make a profitable trade having that info?

imo the price will increase becuase less coins will get produced and have high demand for btc in the future
maybe it will increase but not skyrocket that fast

Further, you don't take into account that halving means that the miners' revenue will also be halved. But revenue is not profit, so, after the halving, they may actually begin suffering losses...

What will they do, and what will they do even before what you think they will do?

They can't be selling everything, you don't need insider information to understand this. Miners are not aliens, they are just like you and me. Do you have some bitcoins in your wallet? If you don't, then I do...

One of the assumptions of the view that price will double after the block halving is miners are currently selling ALL of their mined coins. If they do sell all of their coins now, they will have less coins to sell. Hence selling pressure will ease and price could go up if demand remains the same.

What if miners aren't selling all their mined coins now? If they are only converting just enough coins to cover their fiat running costs, then they will convert exactly the same amount of coins to fiat because running costs will not suddenly jump after halving. So, neutral effect on price.

Who has inside information on what miners are doing now? Are they selling everything?