Bitcoin Price Will Spike Over 65% After Winkelvoss ETF

Victorycoin

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Quote from: Slark on February 23, 2017, 12:37:39 AM

ETF will be a gate for institutional capital to invest in bitcoin. If we think, who is buying BTC now?
Most money managers can't invest in Bitcoin because it is not registered security and they can't touch it because of that.
With ETF in play it will be possible for institutional money to flow into bitcoin. People will realize that Bitcoin is now backed by legal financial institution.
So BTC will no longer be 'that thing used to buy illegal goods' but instead become something approved by SEC.
All that will make bitcoin price more stable, because volatility will vaporize, and effect on price will be significant.

I quite agree with your take that Bitcoin ETFs would attract more institutional investors to Bitcoin, but to have Bitcoin backed by legal works is going to be a tall order, because the authorities are mindful of the fact that Bitcoin stands to push especially the local currencies to the background if given legal backing and for that, it should be understandable why they would rather look the other way. Nevertheless, ETFs would provide an avenue for the authorities to influence the price of Bitcoin and I think they would be interested in that!

1Referee

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Quote from: MiladMax on February 23, 2017, 10:55:47 AM

And what if it disapproved?? How much dip would you expect?

It just depends on how far the current increase is based on what will be happening with the ETF on the 11 of March, next month. I think the uncertainty that governments cause within their economy is what is pushing people towards Bitcoin. They take positions into Bitcoin to store (secure) a part of their wealth outside the banking/governmental system. It creates great demand for Bitcoin which isn't likely to decrease any time soon. If the ETF doesn't happen to get approved and the price falls as result of that, then it will be nothing more than a short lasting dump. After that the price will continue it's way up.

log2exp

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Some of my friends want to get into bitcoin, and I told them to prepare to buy the dip after March 11. How far the knife is going to fall, it's hard to tell, but at least some are prepared to catch it.

Paashaas

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Quote from: MiladMax on February 23, 2017, 10:55:47 AM

And what if it disapproved?? How much dip would you expect?

Well, March 11th is on a Saturday..so you can chill behind youre screen and party on ore press SELL.

MiladMax

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And what if it disapproved?? How much dip would you expect?

aardvark15

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Could the increase due to the potential ETF already be built into the price? That's sort of what happened last year with the halving. I think the price increases for a few months prior to the halving so there wasn't much change after the halving.

lordquanta

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65% Price rise due to ETF approval will be nice example of play of FUD and nothing else. There are multiple reasons for price rise, most of them have been explained in this thread as well. Bitcoin supply has halved and there is increasing demand of bitcoins. Whether ETF approval do wonders for bitcoin price is still in uncertain. What if big corporations find bitcoin not scalable for them and causing abandoning it. This would be major dent for bitcoin world. We all know current load on the blockchain and what would happen if big corps enter and try to raise the transactions? Will current infrastructure take it? Thus don't ride high on approval of ETF, it may backfire.

BitDane

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I agree that with the approval of Winkelvoss ETF, this signals other investors to hop in to Bitcoin. Reason is that, the fears and doubt about bitcoin will be gone since it is clear that bitcoin is somehow recognized by legal entities. With this the price of Bitcoin will spike due to the fresh funds from these people.

Slark

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ETF will be a gate for institutional capital to invest in bitcoin. If we think, who is buying BTC now?
Most money managers can't invest in Bitcoin because it is not registered security and they can't touch it because of that.
With ETF in play it will be possible for institutional money to flow into bitcoin. People will realize that Bitcoin is now backed by legal financial institution.
So BTC will no longer be 'that thing used to buy illegal goods' but instead become something approved by SEC.
All that will make bitcoin price more stable, because volatility will vaporize, and effect on price will be significant.

IMZ

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Quote from: tiggytomb on February 16, 2017, 08:18:43 AM

Quote from: franky1 on February 16, 2017, 08:11:03 AM

to clarify and explain a few details:

the winkles already bought their bitcoin for their trust YEARS ago.

their ETF is not the actual bitcoin price. but a SHARE price of the COMPANY(trust) the winkles own.

do not confuse the ETF with bitcoin. they are 2 different things.

...
now with that said. when/IF the ETF is released people may convert their retirement portfolio's to include ETF shares. (not affecting the bitcoin price)
but may prompt people to SEPARATELY find out more about bitcoin and SEPARATELY try to buy real bitcoins (not ETF shares).

issues with buying real bitcoins though, is the headache of buying bitcoin, due to all the registration requirements and maximum spend limits of exchanges will limit large whales.

so the ETF can cause a chain reaction. but how soon and how much this chain reaction may cause.. is an unknown variable

This is a very clear overview of what the ETF is, I have only seen comments in other threads on the price of bitcoin sky rocketing as a direct result of the ETF, thanks for this explanation.

Yes. Ta.

thejaytiesto

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The COIN share will have a different price temporarily to the BTC price, but since this would be used to make arbitraging, it will quickly reach a similar price, so I don't expect to make any money from that. It's better to just keep buying BTC. COIN is mostly for old people and non-tech people that don't know shit about bitcoin.

Quickseller

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Quote from: franky1 on February 16, 2017, 08:11:03 AM

their ETF is not the actual bitcoin price. but a SHARE price of the COMPANY(trust) the winkles own.

do not confuse the ETF with bitcoin. they are 2 different things.

...
now with that said. when/IF the ETF is released people may convert their retirement portfolio's to include ETF shares. (not affecting the bitcoin price)

Most ETFs (it is my understanding that COIN will be no different), allow certain Authorized Participants ("AP") to exchange shares of the ETF for the equivalent assets that those shares represent, and vice versa.

So for example, if the price of COIN were to go above the price of the equivalent amount of BTC that each share of COIN represents, (and there is sufficient liquidity), then someone might buy 5,000BTC on an exchange, exchange those BTC for shares of COIN, and sell the shares of COIN on the open market, and pocket the difference.

This is not unlike how a order on the OkCoin futures platform affects the price on other exchanges, provided that it is large enough, and the various exchanges have sufficient liquidity.

Victorycoin

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Quote from: Kprawn on February 17, 2017, 06:08:26 PM

We know how these things works... the Bitcoin price goes up and people take notice and the masters of the fiat world react by doing something to push it down again... Just when we thought things were going well, the Chinese government dropped the PBOC on us. The ETF approval will push the price up, but something will push it down again. Angry

Since ETFs are created to track the price of an asset, they only have to create an arbitrage opportunity through some pricing mechanism that sells the shares at some prices lower than the market value of Bitcoin and the arbitrage situation that ensues will increase the demand for the ETF shares and the subsequent selling or redemption of the shares would then force the price down and close the arbitrage.

That goes to suggest that the government would rather be inclined to give approval for ETFs that tracks the price of Bitcoin, because it would then give them a tool to control the price of Bitcoin.

cpfreeplz

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Quote from: shannen87 on February 16, 2017, 08:12:51 AM

The chance of getting aproved is below >30%
In case they get the green light, BTC price will massively rise up to 1600$ for the first weeks.
If they get declined, the price might hit $700-$900.

I love how everyone and their dog tries to come up with a chance that this will happen. Why is it 1 in 4 ish? According to who? It was pulled out of someone's ass and that's all most people are going on.

The Sceptical Chymist

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Quote from: franky1 on February 16, 2017, 08:11:03 AM

to clarify and explain a few details:

the winkles already bought their bitcoin for their trust YEARS ago.

their ETF is not the actual bitcoin price. but a SHARE price of the COMPANY(trust) the winkles own.

do not confuse the ETF with bitcoin. they are 2 different things.

...
now with that said. when/IF the ETF is released people may convert their retirement portfolio's to include ETF shares. (not affecting the bitcoin price)
but may prompt people to SEPARATELY find out more about bitcoin and SEPARATELY try to buy real bitcoins (not ETF shares).

issues with buying real bitcoins though, is the headache of buying bitcoin, due to all the registration requirements and maximum spend limits of exchanges will limit large whales.

so the ETF can cause a chain reaction. but how soon and how much this chain reaction may cause.. is an unknown variable

I do understand this, but somehow I doubt that them creating an ETF based on bitcoin will have an appreciable effect on the price. That's just a hunch. I also doubt that it's going to stimulate interest in people who otherwise wouldn't have heard about it--unless some Wall Street firms decide to buy in or something like that. But the average Joe? Probably not.

babsalt1975

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Quote from: rickadone on February 16, 2017, 04:55:51 PM

Is there any explanation on why we can expect only 65% and why not 1000% because I am expecting a huge spike around the approval of bitcoin ETF.

I believe that it is not going to be just how much investments it is going to attract and direct proportional to bitcoin prices. It is all about hype which is possible due to the promotions bitcoin will get among any investors and tech people who understand the real benefits of bitcoin and its investment possibilities.

I think there will be a spike expected that might double the price due to the market reactions. The price will not stay at the peak for a long time and will later settle at around half of it and stabilize. That is why the prediction of 65% rise is given.

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Quote from: NUFCrichard on February 17, 2017, 06:37:11 PM

Quote from: rickadone on February 16, 2017, 04:55:51 PM

Is there any explanation on why we can expect only 65% and why not 1000% because I am expecting a huge spike around the approval of bitcoin ETF.

I believe that it is not going to be just how much investments it is going to attract and direct proportional to bitcoin prices. It is all about hype which is possible due to the promotions bitcoin will get among any investors and tech people who understand the real benefits of bitcoin and its investment possibilities.

Why would a new way to buy something that is already relatively easy to buy increase the market cap by $130billion (more than the value of Mastercard, nearly the value of coca cola)

I would expect a small boost in price, maybe 10%, then if the ETF starts to accumulate Bitcoins, the long term price pressure would be positive for the price.

SLV and GLD are generally considered to be very bad for the price of physical PMs, I am not sure that a Bitcoin ETF will be quite the windfall that people expect.

Bitcoin to many is easy to buy but i bet theres thousands of people that would be put off by all the horror stories of losing keys, hacked accounts and just general loss of coins. If buying through a ETF then you dont have to worry about any of these issues. The majority of wall street investors wouldnt bother with the hassle of buying and storing a bitcoin but i bet they would happily buy a ETF when they see how much potential it has.

If the ETF goes through your normal bitcoin guys will enter into a bull market while we have ETF guys double teaming from the other side. All outlooks look positive.

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Quote from: Victorycoin on February 17, 2017, 05:05:53 PM

ETFs are targeted at high networth investors that can comfortably upto 50000 blocks of shares from the fund company and not just for every trader out there unless a brokerage company comes in to play the middleman.

What a bizarre assertion. Any yahoo with a brokerage account can buy ETFs (picture the creepy e-trade baby). That is their raison d'etre.

hector3115

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Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on February 16, 2017, 08:03:25 AM

I think it's possible that if their ETF is approved the price will rise massively. The issue is getting it approved though, I think it's supposed to have a 25% chance of approval which isn't great.

Well Brexit supposedly had no chance, Trump had no chance, the Patriots had no chance, Bitcoin ETF has no chance...

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Quote from: rickadone on February 16, 2017, 04:55:51 PM

Is there any explanation on why we can expect only 65% and why not 1000% because I am expecting a huge spike around the approval of bitcoin ETF.

I believe that it is not going to be just how much investments it is going to attract and direct proportional to bitcoin prices. It is all about hype which is possible due to the promotions bitcoin will get among any investors and tech people who understand the real benefits of bitcoin and its investment possibilities.

Why would a new way to buy something that is already relatively easy to buy increase the market cap by $130billion (more than the value of Mastercard, nearly the value of coca cola)

I would expect a small boost in price, maybe 10%, then if the ETF starts to accumulate Bitcoins, the long term price pressure would be positive for the price.

SLV and GLD are generally considered to be very bad for the price of physical PMs, I am not sure that a Bitcoin ETF will be quite the windfall that people expect.

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