completely forgot about this thread, seems to be pretty accurate still.
let's see if it stays that way.
let's see if it stays that way.
Thanks zimmah, not accurate anymore though. Bull channel I was looking at has been invalidated, I wonder if eth effect has something to do with it. So I guess I need to re-evaluate my idea a little bit.
At the moment I've turned my attention to this wedge, and also exploring the idea of this bullish fork.
There are people forecasting that bitcoin halving will be a bearish event this time. My current opinion is still that bitcoin is currently one of the best investments there is. Although not playing out how I guessed at the start of the thread I still think the general idea of huge rise is still very possible. However I am prepared for a shakeout or bearish move before it really kicks off. That wedge could break downwards. No-one knows really but time will tell.
IMO, it's not that it's a bearish event, it's more that it's not as much of a guaranteed mega bullish event that many think. I think there is still a good chance of a decent rally, but it may or may not all be done before the halving similar to what LTC did. It is also arguable that the last halving had less bearing on the 2013 rally's than it's given credit for. Above all, because halvings have less effect on the new supply with every subsequent event, and front running the expectation of a rally, each one should have a dampened effect compared to the last. When we halve from 3.25BTC to 1.625 BTC, the supply shock will be much less noticeable.
I know everyone has seen my chart from a few days ago... In my chart, we are still in a bear market. A counter trend rally (wave-B) of a bear market. In bear markets, good news/events are perceived as "meh, at least it's not bad news" and cause things like small rally's or slowing the descent. It's akin to how bad news is perceived in a bull market, just slows the boil a little bit.
These are my thought's not yours, on the morning X
