Topic: Bitcoin recent boom tracing back to Mt Gox + FTX/celsius/terra (Read 164 times)

I never said certain events don't affect price, I saw the same with BSV fork and drop to $3.2K as well as Bakt launch at $14K, other key events also clearly affected price in the immediate term. Like Tesla buying Bitcoin at $30K causing the price to reach $65K. It definiately accelerated the bull market - but price reachsed that level again by the end of the year anyway, so that was always a target it seems.

However as I said, I only see it as affecting price short-term. It can accelerate price movements for example. Without hedge fund liquidations price may have held higher levels for longer, but reaching $15K imo was still likely going to happen by the end of the year even if price capitulated much later. Maybe without the FTX sell-off then price could have held $17.5K, but price had started to look bearish already so...

My response to pooya87 had little to do with your initial post tbh. I just pointed out how so far in 2022 bear market whereby price has dropped -77% Bitcoin has performed better under the conditions of inflation than previously in 2014 and 2018 when price dropped -83%. I really don't see how anyone can argue any differently at the moment. Whether a recession causes prices to go lower than usual is a different story.

EVERYTHING effects the markets. It only becomes obvious once you look back, but not during

You clearly did not look at the charts at all. No offense but your just full of it.

It's not that I don't understand the theory as to why Bitcoin would fall during a recession, it's that so far I see it as an unproven theory. Baring in mind there is a logical reason why markets fall during a recession, it's not just people liquidating assets to survive, it's that people are spending/buying less, there is no longer economic growth and therefore most markets won't grow either and neither will their share prices. With 50% of global wealth concentrated to 1-5% of the population who aren't seriously affected by recession (when it comes to cost of living etc), then half the sellers come from those minimising inevitable losses.

So in this sense, half will be selling due to cost of living crisis (inflation), the other half would be selling due to declining investment values (recession). But obviously this is dependant on those investments actually declining, otherwise there wouldn't be a reason to sell in order to preserve wealth. For example Gold rises during a recession, or at least has in the past, but I don't believe this comes from 95-99% of the population suffering from inflation, but the 1-5% who can afford to invest in Gold who are experiencing a lack of wealth increase due to recession, ie mainly institutions. The reality is Bitcoin isn't disconnected from these wealth distributions either, with around 2% owning around 93% of all coins, or 0.36% owning over 80% even (which is an enormous difference compared to 1% owning 50%), and this doesn't even factor in that many will own multiple accounts either, so the split is probably more likely around 1% of individuals owning 95% of the coins imo. At the moment, this wealth distribution probably has more upside than downside right now.

My rambling point is I don't believe that Bitcoin is dependant on economic growth for it's own increase in value, just like Gold. Because it's value is based on scarcity, not on economic growth. It's only fundamental weakness imo would be for example increased energy costs and seeing a 80-90% correction in hash rate, that would certainly have the affects of continued downside price action, with more miners selling and mining companies going bankrupt etc, creating too much supply and not enough demand. But for all we know while 93% of the population are somewhat forced into selling due to inflation, the other 7% could well be buying more than usual causing the price to increase, especially if it becomes "immune" from recession in other markets, ie de-correlates (again) and instead correlates with Gold, as a genuine inflation hedge.

Either way I think by the end of the year things will become clearer if recession is to take hold. This year (the year after a 1 year bear market) is supposed to be a recovery year, whether that be going back to the upside (like 2019) or consolidating sideways (like 2015). So either the 4-year cycle will remain in tact, or Bitcoin will be negatively affected by a recession and prices will continue to decline.

But for now, given Bitcoin has acted more or less "as expected" in 2022 irrespective of inflation, ie a 1 year bear market after it's bull market, call me naive, but I still think it's too early to tell.

Fair point. We should always see all the factors that can affect the market. The ones I listed are mostly in the same category affecting the economy but of course we should consider the bitcoin specific events like the 4-year cycles too.

My theory is that inflation is still good for bitcoin but there is a difference between inflation and recession and inflation with recession.
What we have is the last one meaning both inflation and recession at the same time.

• During inflation people still have their jobs even though price of every thing is going up so they still earn money as before and can can think about investing it and hedging against inflation.
• But during recession unemployment grows and people are earning less money so their main concern is their cost of living not investment which is why they liquidate their assets more during a recession, that is selling bitcoin among other things causing the dump.

What we have or are heading towards is inflation with recession specially when they keep increasing interest rates (that causes recession) to lower inflation that is already higher but it doesn't work well enough.

No offence, but it seems you are listing a lot of relatively isolated events to support the argument of Bitcoin's dumping -77.5% from it's highs in 2022. The irony being that in 2014 as well as 2018 Bitcoin dropped -83% from it's highs, so in reality Bitcoin has performed better (so far) within the 2022 bear market than in previous ones, given Bitcoin's bear markets remain part of a 4-year cycle. My point is if inflation had arrived in 2021 during Bitcoin's bull market, I'm sure most (including myself) would of wrongly claimed that inflation is good for Bitcoin, while now many still hold the belief that inflation is bad for Bitcoin, whereas as I stated Bitcoin has performed much better than previous bear markets without inflation and other factors - at least so far and based on the theory that the bottom is now in.

I think we will only know if all or any of these factors above are "bad" for Bitcoin will be price drops lower (in % terms) than usual, which would be <$12K, which remains to be seen. If the perma bears are correct and we will go into a global recession in 2023 and see Bitcoin make new lows beyond the "usual", then sure we can probably say that inflation/recession is bad for Bitcoin. It's not that I'm saying that certain events, whether it be hedge fund liquidations or other global economic factors doesn't have an affect on Bitcoin's price, but I only really see it accelerating in the short-term where Bitcoin price will end up eventually, ie where price was going to reach by the end of the bear market anyway. Without certain events price could have held $30K until November before dropping to $15K for example.

Are you saying that the alleged $5 billion that someone found (and that's an amount that's easily lost, isn't it?) caused positive changes in the price of BTC? This means that those who were damaged in the FTX collapse believe that one day they will get a part of what they lost and they are happy about it - and when you already refer to Mt.Gox, then you should know that their clients have been waiting since 2014.

Maybe it's not about that $5 billion, but about those other $5 billion that was allegedly also found, and as things stand, Bankman will one day wake up and find another $10 billion under the mattress of his villa in the Bahamas and it will be as if nothing happened

Everything effects the markets, so yes FTX has a huge MEASURABLE impact as you can clearly see on the charts.

If you aren't in the US you might not realize how big FTX influence on crypto right now is. As soon as over 5 billion in assets were found, markets reacted and thats what caused the boom. You can directly see that from the first mention of the find and check the charts.

Thats A LOT of happy people with hopes of getting funds back, which may end up just like Mt Gox.

Mt Gox people are very happy to be in the process finally to get funds back.

EVERYTHING effects the markets. It only becomes obvious once you look back, but not during.

Bitcoin is best for long-term holding and most importantly holding bitcoin in your private cold wallet off exchange,  the cryptocurrency market has suffered quite a lot in the past and the present crises can't hold Bitcoin down or make any impact on the value of Bitcoin.

But then one thing I will like to mention is the issue of FTX, LUna and the other crisis that happened recently,  it is important to note that these events are too insignificant to make any difference to the price of bitcoin.

So let's not pay attention to the wrong thing since it can amount to a total waste of time.

FTX is not important enough, Im sure I was supposed to be knowledgable about all their stuff but to me they were just another player.  Now they are gone I see no reason why it must alter everything for the rest of us, BTC isnt propped up like that reliant on a website or person for their personal integrity.  Predictably, the security of both was lacking and failed those who trusted in it.   When people point at FTX and say BTC must be blamed its nonsense, I'd say thats a reason to buy when labels are entirely incorrectly placed like that.
  Way back Mt.Gox did have an alarming dominance in BTC, very different and long beforehand people pointed out this towering wobbly leaning empire was about to fall and the negative it would be.   We also did have a number of incorrect factors at that time, I think one BTC mining pool was nearing 50% or maybe it was a bit lower but either way it was far too dominant to be called a safe scenario.   Hopefully BTC has progressed in good times and bad to be more distributed with many legs not just one to stand on for any number of vital trading flows every day.

Musk is a large buyer but also seller, maybe some trade that in order books but Musk isnt really important for change in this space that I ever heard.  Strong genuine buying across millions of people is what alters the price long term hopefully forever in a bullish way because people use that purchase where as Musk did little that I ever heard.

I guess $35k? It's not that BTC didn't have a new ATH but we are only following the last 8 years pattern. The bear market prolly took place and then that can be the cause of some crypto companies to collapse.

And why will they do that? Governments are in fact allergic to cryptos. A lot of them already banned it on their country and the recent move that they did was to create their own version of crypto called CBDC. There are still other factors on why the price of cryptos can collapse.

I think crypto and stock market have differences. Stock market is not a joke but I think they are more serious because they are mostly legit but here in crypto, anyone can create their own coin due to the decentralized nature and that is why there are lots of scammers here.

Comparing Mt.Gox with FTX is completely meaningless for the reasons that @pooya87 also mentioned, it was a completely different time, not only in terms of the general conditions that prevailed in the world at that time, but also due to the fact that, compared to today, at that time Bitcoin was only in the early stages of global expansion.

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I see you are under the great influence of a great leader and you still believe that joke currency can ever be anything other than joke, even when it is being manipulated by one of the greatest manipulators of our time. I hear that Mr. Mars will invent some new coin and call himself Satoshi of the new age, and when he builds a big enough spaceship, he will take everyone who has more than xxxxxxx coins in their wallet to Mars


Bitcoin will follow the Doge? I would ask you if it is a joke, but it seems to me that you are serious, which is already a serious problem, or as some would say in the language of space explorers, "Houston, we have a problem".

It wasn't so much how dangerous stablecoins were -- algo or not -- to me, rather than the fact that all that value was built up on imaginary funds, plus the practice of unlimited money generation from staking (vapour making vapour).

And behind all that lies the only utility: speculation. Which we should have learnt by now isn't sustainable.

Where ever Dogecoin goes Bitcoin will go.

Don't worry.

I think you are predicting the next 8 years from the FTX event.
Such a prediction with the data entered is only a small part of the events in 2022 then you equate it with the events of Mt, Gox with a distance of 8 years, after that you predict 8 years later the same events will occur is that so?
is that enough to prove that your prediction will be correct?
In my opinion, the crash of the exchange and the Alt project is not a repeating cycle, at any time it can crash when the management of the exchange is bad and just a bunch of scammers.


Wow that sentence tickles my stomach, you predict there will be more destruction and you joke this, I can't think.

Both mt.gox and FTX collapses helped to spot out the "real potential" of bitcoin at the bottom of bear market. If I remember correctly, mt.gox collapse led bitcoin to test ~$180 by January 2015 and in November 2022, around FTX collapse, we tested ~$16k levels. I call these price levels as real value of bitcoin as there were enough buyers around those levels for not letting down bitcoin falling further.

In next 8 years, we may see many exchanges come and go but when bitcoiners start believing into the concept of decentralization and ignoring centralized services then we can prevent another incident of influence of collapse of an exchange or any other similar centralized service provider.

All centralized services are prone to collapse as they are built and managed by few people and people are known for malfunctions for any reason. Until we let centralized service providers to grow giants, their collapse will influence bitcoin market for sure.

Diversify your centralized service needs to ensure less influence of them into bitcoin markets.

Attempting to predict the future price will be more difficult, given that we will not gain more demand that makes changes of 30% normal, and therefore the price will be limited to a range, for example, between 100K to 500k.

All the small events that pass in the middle will not affect the final result, and for those who may have catastrophic effects in the short term, and therefore focusing on them will not be important.

What you should focus on is that the longer the time, the stronger and more stable the bottom.

I remember that celsius collapse did not cause any chaos, but the panic that followed Luna's collapse caused it.

I didn't say these scams, hacks, etc. had no effects. I'm saying that these things are not the ONLY reason for dumps.
Even your zoom in this picture showing the dumps is isolated since the dumps started from November 2021 from $69k not 6 months later in May 2022 from $40k.

Some other events during the same period are:
- Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Increased inflation in US and Europe and pretty much everywhere else
- Euro/USD exchange rate dumping hard for the first time in years
- Increased interest rates
- Recession
- Food scarcity crisis when the export of grains halted globally for a while
- Energy crisis
- Other markets like stock crumbling down (eg. in first week of June which is Celsius on your chart, S&P500 dumped 11%)
- Introduction of a New World Order
- ...
a lot more that has been affecting the global economy in a negative way hence affecting bitcoin price also.

Analyzing the market in this isolated way means you make wrong assumptions, then in a different scenario like 2021 you see the same unrelated shitcoin scam like LUNA happen and it doesn't affect the bitcoin market at all and you'd be surprised why that happened while having made a wrong decision and having lost a lot of money due to bad speculation.

I was a bit sleepy ty I corrected it:)

You're wrong, FTX got hacked on last year or 2022, not 2023.

So it should be 2014 --> 2022 --> 2030

But in order to see a big exchange got hacked and collapse, it doesn't need to wait for 8 years, every year there's always exchange got hacked.

You don't have to invest in altcoins to know if altcoins are scam, holding your coins on exchanges are not 100% safe.

So, just avoid all of them and just hold your Bitcoin on hardware wallet.

The most dangerous thing you can do when analyzing something is to look at isolated events while ignoring everything else.

In this case (bitcoin price) you are isolating an exchange scam case and focusing too much on it without considering all the differences.
In 2013 when MtGox bubble formed which popped in November, this exchange controlled almost all the trading volume in bitcoin market (more than 85%) and other exchanges weren't really significant enough.
In 2022 something like FTX barely has any percentage in the much bigger bitcoin market that contains over a dozen big bitcoin exchanges with higher volumes. Same with centralized altcoins like stablecoins, they don't have any significant effect on bitcoin price anymore.
In 2013 not much else was going on in the world considering economy, in 2022 the world economy was (as it still is) in terrible shape with high inflation and recession in most countries that is significantly affecting bitcoin market.

They would just be creating yet another useless shitcoin that is completely centralized and will most probably die in a year or two when the major CBDCs are dominating the market. By then these exchanges that are creators of these centralized shitcoins and have full control over them would go down because their shitcoin gets dumped hard down to 0.

haha. Elon will only pump and dump this shitcoin as long as he can make money from it.