Bitcoin scraped pool luck data/graphics

Geremia

sr. member

Activity: 506

Merit: 253

Quote from: topheroly on July 31, 2011, 09:18:31 PM

For the inclined:
I wrote this completely in R http://www.r-project.org/ and rastered the graphics using the package ggplot2 http://had.co.nz/ggplot2/. The formula used to calculate luck is

z <- (x/y)
if z < 1
luck <- (1 - z)*(-1)
if z > 1
luck <- (z - 1)

x == Actual Blocks found within Time Frame
y == Estimated Blocks found within Time Frame

To calculate estimated blocks, use the formula (difficulty * 2^32)/hashrate. These numbers are also grabbed from each site when the script is run.

You like my histograms of hashes and nonces posted on this BitcoinTalk thread.

ahitman

sr. member

Activity: 302

Merit: 250

What happened to the charts? Any plans on putting them back up? Are you still collecting the data the charts use?

Meatpile

sr. member

Activity: 277

Merit: 250

That is good quality work sir.

topheroly

newbie

Activity: 21

Merit: 0

Added a spiffy break-even calculator to find out what cost it starts becoming unprofitable.

topheroly

newbie

Activity: 21

Merit: 0

Added another geom_line to the plots, it helps demonstrate how much everything changes. The "Actual Luck" line is in red and is drawn through the 24hr points. I also changed the smoother formula so it only uses 12/24 scrapes because of how much the smaller pools vary.

topheroly

newbie

Activity: 21

Merit: 0

It's to give an idea of the magnitude of the variance that pools have.

sharky112065

sr. member

Activity: 383

Merit: 250

Since it is only updated daily at 5 pm now, what is the point of having 6 and 12 hour results on the charts?

topheroly

newbie

Activity: 21

Merit: 0

Added an about page and a contact form. Probably going to add something for people who are interested in the code as well. I'm still debating that.

LightRider

legendary

Activity: 1500

Merit: 1022

I advocate the Zeitgeist Movement & Venus Project.

Good site, great graphs and useful information. Thanks!

hugolp

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1001

Radix-The Decentralized Finance Protocol

Quote from: enquirer on August 13, 2011, 10:04:00 PM

Very nice graphs! And they clearly show that ALL pools on average are unlucky!

It doesnt show that.

enquirer

sr. member

Activity: 306

Merit: 257

Very nice graphs! And they clearly show that ALL pools on average are unlucky!
Either pool owners or block hiders screw the small miner.

topheroly

newbie

Activity: 21

Merit: 0

I included histograms for people to look at to actually see what effect a larger pool has on the variance of luck. As we can see, deebit has the sharpest peak around 0 implying they are running a very steady ship for payouts. When looking at the smaller pools however, you can see that there is a MUCH larger variance for their ability to find a block. Interesting to see anyway.

The stats page also includes the mean/sd/quantiles for those that want to look at the descriptive statistics.

dacoinminster

legendary

Activity: 1260

Merit: 1031

Rational Exuberance

My personal theory is that slush has the best pool for people who aren't pool-hopping. My guess is that the uneven luck distribution for other pools is a result of pool-hoppers making more on short blocks at the expense of non-pool hoppers.

slush has an algorithm that weights recent work higher than older work, which means that pool hopping doesn't get you anything. Other pools don't do this, to my knowledge.

fitty

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 501

CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!

Cool project.

Beyond pretty graphs, what have you learned? Are some pools luckier? Do some pools out perform the average?

Before everyone starts lecturing me about statistics and probabilities, all pools are not created equal. Bitcoins.lc runs very very low invalids. I've seen other polls run as high as 3%. They're running different backends. The code that manages the workers I'm sure varies and has an effect on how effective the pool is.

Maybe there's not enough data to draw any conclusions, blocks don't happen very often. But if anyone has any theories on this data do share. Tongue

dacoinminster

legendary

Activity: 1260

Merit: 1031

Rational Exuberance

Nice work. I salute you sir!

I note that slush's pool has been lucky lately, which I was just noticing yesterday in my own spreadsheets. It's nice to have that independently confirmed. I also note that slush's pool always has a nice bell-curve look to it. It's not clear to me why everyone else has their peak on the unlucky side with a bump way up on the lucky side. I wonder if it has to do with slush's algorithm to make pool hopping unprofitable on his server . . .

Anyone who finds these graphs useful should also check out:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
http://bitcoinx.com/charts/

sje397

newbie

Activity: 23

Merit: 0

It might provide circumstantial evidence in case of DDOS - i.e. which pool the attacker is using (since that one will likely not be affected).

Obsi

newbie

Activity: 30

Merit: 0

This is very cool, thanks for putting the time into this.

topheroly

newbie

Activity: 21

Merit: 0

Added Trade data bubble plots/loess lines to graphs available.

topheroly

newbie

Activity: 21

Merit: 0

Added pool growth hash rate graphs to information provided. Might include some sort of calculator next or trade data.

topheroly

newbie

Activity: 21

Merit: 0

Added bitcoins.lc and changed the layout so is now more visually appealing.

Topic: Bitcoin scraped pool luck data/graphics (Read 8737 times)