Bitcoin of some sort is here to stay but in my opinion it will only get to the masses when masses will stop thinking about it. How much do you think about how a card works when you make a payment? You just accept it that it works that's it. So that what I believe we have in store to bitcoin. People are not interested call bitcoin or token or apple pay. They care if it solves a problem or makes their live easier or cheaper. In current form bitcoin does not do these these things to it's best. But I'm a big believer. It will change the way people do business but when they will stop noticing it.
That's right. But I think that it will be the blockchain that is massively adopted first, by massive institutions. Even banks that first try their own proprietary blockchains will discover that they might just as well use the bitcoin blockchain too, if only for
backup data-archiving purposes. In other words, institutions will drive adaptation for their own internal purposes, and only then begin offering bank accounts and debit- and credit-cards that use bitcoins in a way perfectly transparent to the their customers, who, as you say, will not care about the mechanics. They just want to slide their cards or wave their phones. And that preference will be served. I think this will happen even before online gambling moves decisively to the dark web. So legal-market adaptation would drive illegal-market adaptation. (After which online bitcoin gambling will be legalized.)
All of which means that institutional use of the blockchain for tamper-proof data storage may well be the upward driver of the price of bitcoins for the next several years.
Except for bad economic news of course. The Euro may be bitcoin's second killer app after the blockchain itself.
I could not agree with you more.
Before this happens people like you and me who are diehard converted would have to solve a couple problems to get institutions going.
1. SLAs - Blockchain has non. No serious business would adopt the tech without SLAs.
2. Regulators - that have to be convinced that blockchain is as good if not better in settlement compare to the existing highly regulated Central Counterparties.
To you point regarding side chains or managed coins, I'm not convinced. They will play with that but any form of managed blockchain takes away the censorship resilience that bitcoin naturally have. The tech needs to evolve.