Bitcoin Speculation 2014 | Bitcointalksearch.org

kisa2005

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Quote from: TERA on February 11, 2014, 05:24:25 AM

The logarithmic chart is way overbought. We could use a healthy retracement, like this:

dare to lean out of the window and state that 50%+ of BTC owners are long-term holders who won't ever panic because they made BTC their life's project. So the price would never consistently go down more than 50% from the previous top (unless for illiquid blips where everyone jumps in to buy)... well, we had the "healthy retracement" during yesterday's 121 crash print I guess Wink

that's it people, now range-bound for a few months 2-3K towards year end.

and why do people call something a bubble at 11bn market cap? thats not the magnitude some globally famous bubble would have. 50x this would be bubbly, but then it would correspond to the new standard.... so, in summary, BTC is very dangerous in terms of shorting... could fall max 700 USD, but good chance of rise to 7000 USD in 1-2 years, exponential network effects - that's a very assymetric outcome. your choice how to position Wink

Cyberlight

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8k by dec minimal.

gollum

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In Hashrate We Trust!

Quote from: chessnut on February 11, 2014, 05:38:38 AM

Quote from: tk808 on February 11, 2014, 02:37:24 AM

Quote from: gollum on February 11, 2014, 01:28:58 AM

My speculation:

Based on Technical Analysis and market psychology I believe bitcoin will crash and stabilize around 100-200$.
I think levels at 100-200 could be good levels for a speculative Risk-Reward investment long term.
Maybe we get 5000-10,000 $ in a couple of years if bitcoin manages to compete against 1000 of altcoins.

This is why i hate technical analysis of markets, but it's a necessary evil in certain scenarios suchas when i traded on FOREX, real world markets. At this very moment, this type of analysis does not pertain to bitcoin or any digital currency.

You are forgetting the social aspect that are behind bitcoin now, and that's people. It's a whole different playing field then 1 year ago when it was a bandits currency.

In summary: you can't apply a technical analysis when something changes as drastic as bitcoin, the adoption is still growing and becoming more widely accepted worldwide. Bitcoin is still very unknown to the masses.

I agree with this,
you can always apply technical analysis, especially when the asset is up to its neck with speculators. it is a bubble, and so it is subject to technical analysis.
I dont mean ponzi scheme, just bubble.

Instead of TA lets call it statistics or econometrics, the more data you have the better chances you have of making a good prediction.
Because of the huge volatilty in bitcoin it is still very hard to make good predictions, but you can see patterns, and possible outcomes of those patterns.

We got for example an uptredning channel as you see in my simple chart where the price failed to go above the channel top, and is therfore falling back to the channel bottom (100-200). Another thing that support this prediction is double top in moving averages.

TERA

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Quote from: MANofthePEOPLE on February 11, 2014, 05:30:25 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

The days of $1000-1400 BTC are over. LTC will never see triple digits.

Just my guess, With such long transaction times for BTC why would the value go up when so many new coins with faster speeds and better technology are available?

BTC will sit around $800 for 2014.

What coins could take bitcoins place as #1?

Dogecoin

chessnut

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Quote from: tk808 on February 11, 2014, 02:37:24 AM

Quote from: gollum on February 11, 2014, 01:28:58 AM

My speculation:

Based on Technical Analysis and market psychology I believe bitcoin will crash and stabilize around 100-200$.
I think levels at 100-200 could be good levels for a speculative Risk-Reward investment long term.
Maybe we get 5000-10,000 $ in a couple of years if bitcoin manages to compete against 1000 of altcoins.

This is why i hate technical analysis of markets, but it's a necessary evil in certain scenarios suchas when i traded on FOREX, real world markets. At this very moment, this type of analysis does not pertain to bitcoin or any digital currency.

You are forgetting the social aspect that are behind bitcoin now, and that's people. It's a whole different playing field then 1 year ago when it was a bandits currency.

In summary: you can't apply a technical analysis when something changes as drastic as bitcoin, the adoption is still growing and becoming more widely accepted worldwide. Bitcoin is still very unknown to the masses.

I agree with this,
you can always apply technical analysis, especially when the asset is up to its neck with speculators. it is a bubble, and so it is subject to technical analysis.
I dont mean ponzi scheme, just bubble.

TERA

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Activity: 728

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Quote from: magicmexican on February 11, 2014, 05:26:53 AM

So when it drops to 16, will you buy this time or will be scared to death and miss the chance once again?

It depends. If it lasts longer than 10 seconds, I might have time to properly analyze the situation.

Hyena

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Quote from: magicmexican on February 11, 2014, 05:26:53 AM

So when it drops to 16, will you buy this time or will be scared to death and miss the chance once again?

+1

if it drops to 16 why would you buy? maybe it's heading for 0.16? you dumb bears only generate butthurt for yourself.

MANofthePEOPLE

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Quote from: ?? on ??

The days of $1000-1400 BTC are over. LTC will never see triple digits.

Just my guess, With such long transaction times for BTC why would the value go up when so many new coins with faster speeds and better technology are available?

BTC will sit around $800 for 2014.

What coins could take bitcoins place as #1?

magicmexican

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Activity: 812

Merit: 1000

So when it drops to 16, will you buy this time or will be scared to death and miss the chance once again?

TERA

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The logarithmic chart is way overbought. We could use a healthy retracement, like this:

OliverEngland

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At least double what it is now.

Lauda

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Terminated.

Quote from: rat on February 11, 2014, 03:23:38 AM

Quote

Technical Analysis is about FACTS (actual trades)
what we say about the future is always SPECULATIONS but I prefer to base my speculation on FACTS rather than OPINIONS and IDEALISM.

and what would your facts have predicted about Bitcoin in 2009?

go away.

Ignorant fools trying to look smart. Facts != trades. You're wrong and so are your speculations.
Looking at '09 and his way of thinking, btc would have died off back then.

rat

sr. member

Activity: 253

Merit: 250

Quote

Technical Analysis is about FACTS (actual trades)
what we say about the future is always SPECULATIONS but I prefer to base my speculation on FACTS rather than OPINIONS and IDEALISM.

and what would your facts have predicted about Bitcoin in 2009?

go away.

tk808

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Invest in your knowledge

Quote from: gollum on February 11, 2014, 03:06:27 AM

Quote from: tk808 on February 11, 2014, 02:37:24 AM

Quote from: gollum on February 11, 2014, 01:28:58 AM

My speculation:

Based on Technical Analysis and market psychology I believe bitcoin will crash and stabilize around 100-200$.
I think levels at 100-200 could be good levels for a speculative Risk-Reward investment long term.
Maybe we get 5000-10,000 $ in a couple of years if bitcoin manages to compete against 1000 of altcoins.

This is why i hate technical analysis of markets, but it's a necessary evil in certain scenarios suchas when i traded on FOREX, real world markets. At this very moment, this type of analysis does not pertain to bitcoin or any digital currency.

You are forgetting the social aspect that are behind bitcoin now, and that's people. It's a whole different playing field then 1 year ago when it was a bandits currency.

In summary: you can't apply a technical analysis when something changes as drastic as bitcoin, the adoption is still growing and becoming more widely accepted worldwide. Bitcoin is still very unknown to the masses.

Technical Analysis is about FACTS (actual trades)
what we say about the future is always SPECULATIONS but I prefer to base my speculation on FACTS rather than OPINIONS and IDEALISM.

Tech Analysis can't see the future, it only predicts based on past and the present outcomes. The most important variable is not factored into the equation, that is the social-world (every single tiny detail that has to do with human interaction).

To a degree a graph is telling us the social-world-history of bitcoin, but it's not telling us the seeds that have been planted and are growing as we speak.

I'm tired right now, maybe you can understand the reason in my logic when you apply something like this to bitcoin. I'm not knocking tech analysis or the facts it states, because i do believe in the concept... but, it does not pertain to this particular scenario. Bitcoin is still a baby and growing up, not a full matured stock the minute it was launched on an exchange.

gollum

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In Hashrate We Trust!

Quote from: tk808 on February 11, 2014, 02:37:24 AM

Quote from: gollum on February 11, 2014, 01:28:58 AM

My speculation:

Based on Technical Analysis and market psychology I believe bitcoin will crash and stabilize around 100-200$.
I think levels at 100-200 could be good levels for a speculative Risk-Reward investment long term.
Maybe we get 5000-10,000 $ in a couple of years if bitcoin manages to compete against 1000 of altcoins.

This is why i hate technical analysis of markets, but it's a necessary evil in certain scenarios suchas when i traded on FOREX, real world markets. At this very moment, this type of analysis does not pertain to bitcoin or any digital currency.

You are forgetting the social aspect that are behind bitcoin now, and that's people. It's a whole different playing field then 1 year ago when it was a bandits currency.

In summary: you can't apply a technical analysis when something changes as drastic as bitcoin, the adoption is still growing and becoming more widely accepted worldwide. Bitcoin is still very unknown to the masses.

Technical Analysis is about FACTS (actual trades)
what we say about the future is always SPECULATIONS but I prefer to base my speculation on FACTS rather than OPINIONS and IDEALISM.

Wekkel

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yes

Quote from: rat on February 11, 2014, 02:44:23 AM

Quote

In summary: you can't apply a technical analysis when something changes as drastic as bitcoin, the adoption is still growing and becoming more widely accepted worldwide. Bitcoin is still very unknown to the masses.

this.

This does not mean that Bitcoin will never have a slow period like 2011/2012 again.

miketonic

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I'm quite sure it will go up or down or stay the same Cool

Mythul

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$10.000 to the moon anybody ?

rat

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Quote

In summary: you can't apply a technical analysis when something changes as drastic as bitcoin, the adoption is still growing and becoming more widely accepted worldwide. Bitcoin is still very unknown to the masses.

this.

tk808

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Invest in your knowledge

Quote from: gollum on February 11, 2014, 01:28:58 AM

My speculation:

Based on Technical Analysis and market psychology I believe bitcoin will crash and stabilize around 100-200$.
I think levels at 100-200 could be good levels for a speculative Risk-Reward investment long term.
Maybe we get 5000-10,000 $ in a couple of years if bitcoin manages to compete against 1000 of altcoins.

This is why i hate technical analysis of markets, but it's a necessary evil in certain scenarios suchas when i traded on FOREX, real world markets. At this very moment, this type of analysis does not pertain to bitcoin or any digital currency.

You are forgetting the social aspect that are behind bitcoin now, and that's people. It's a whole different playing field then 1 year ago when it was a bandits currency.

In summary: you can't apply a technical analysis when something changes as drastic as bitcoin, the adoption is still growing and becoming more widely accepted worldwide. Bitcoin is still very unknown to the masses.

Topic: Bitcoin Speculation 2014 (Read 3587 times)