Bitcoin Streaks (Rise/ Fall) - 2013 to 2020

tranthidung

legendary

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

Hey I am back.

Bitcoin is in a Fall streak!

I hope you guys are doing well during the last week. If you can not enjoy the highly volatile market for trading, I hope you are fine with your positions and don't get liquidations with Margin calls.

Some small updates (please see following charts and quoted tweets).

With the Mayer Multiple Bands, Bitcoin is on the verge of bull and bear market. I think this bull run of Bitcoin has gone half of it and the yellow arrow has yet appeared. See how Bitcoin was corrected in 2017 bull run, it retested the bearish line one, almost two and blasted off to the Moon.

This 2021 bull run, it retested that bullish line one time, bearish time one time (last week) and what do you think? Has it topped up yet?

Connect with other tweets.

Quote from: WillyWoo link=topic=https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1395691954575339526

A history of dips below NVT Price. Cheap coins.

Quote from: glassnode link=topic=https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/1395178671221219336

This #Bitcoin sell-off is historic in magnitude of losses realised by short term holders.

STH-SOPR has only dipped this low on three occasions since 2015:
- Feb 2018 start of bear market
- Nov 2018 bear capitulation
- Mar 2020 COVID sell-off

Quote from: WillyWoo link=topic=https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1394211689260675072

A short 8 year history of dips below NVT Price.

NVT Price estimates an organic valuation supported by long term investors (by using on-chain volume moving between them).

Lastly, please connect big events for Bitcoin.

In 2017: Segwit
In 2021: Taproot

Better things have yet come because Taproot is yet coming (just on-going).

Quote

How BIP9 and the Block Signalling works
BIP9 and Speedy Trial is a softfork deployment method where the miners and mining pools help to coordinate the deployment of a softfork. They do so by signalling for deployment of the softfork in their mined blocks. To lock in the softfork for activation, 90% of the blocks have to signal.

The signalling method works in periods of 2016 blocks, meaning that within a 2016 block period, 90%, or 1815 of the 2016 blocks have to signal for readiness.

Do note that it's not necessarily over if one period does not succeed to reach 90%, it just means that we will have to wait until the next period. The Speedy Trial ends in August, after this no Speedy Trial deployments are possible anymore and new softfork deployment method has to be developed.

If 1815 (90%) of the blocks signal for readiness within a period, then full nodes that have upgraded to Bitcoin Core or any other compatible implementation will consider the signalling a success and activate the Taproot softfork in November.

Please connect dots and stop panic. In worst case, see the MMB, Bitcoin will retest $20k or $21k. Is it serious guys, honestly? If you have been waiting for years to see Bitcoin claims the $20k again, how serious it would be if it retest it again this year?

Potential Death Cross, check it on chart if you are curious.

[Tutorial] Golden cross VS death cross

If you sell off your Bitcoin, and it blast off to the Moon. Hey, you miss the very last chances to buy Bitcoin below $100k.

tranthidung

legendary

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

Quote from: Febo on April 26, 2021, 09:42:43 AM

Just copy and paste. All 3 cycles are almost a copy paste. They are ridiculously alike. Like Bitcon would not be a money but some art or I dont know what. Maybe reason is that people follow last cycle and they have so much wealth so they make a trend. LOL, only reasonable explanation.

And I hope you can get liquidated. So it will look a bit more real. So far it looked like you cant be. You sold BTC at end of 2017 and bought at beginning of 2019. Same you could do a cycle before. Sold at end of 2013 and bought at beginning of 2015. If this "art" continue, what I so surrealistic believe it will you could sell at end of this year and buy back at beginning of 2023. It is just copy paste. Hopefully it will be different this time.

Patterns, fractals can be reused but the periodicity can be different. With the growth of Bitcoin adoption and more participation of institutes, corporations, I expect shorter periodicity of Bitcoin. Rather than 4 year cycle, it can be shortened to 2 year cycle but every 4 year, the Bitcoin market will have a big cyclical bull run. Bull and bear is within 2 years but each 4 years, a big bull market appears and repeats.

I would like to classify them as: seasonal cycle (2 years) and halving cycle (4 years).

Febo

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Quote from: tranthidung on April 26, 2021, 03:33:16 AM

Copy and paste, do you mean about fractals? There are fractals and they are activated after all preparations for TAs are finished, on time, and whales accumulations are done.

Just copy and paste. All 3 cycles are almost a copy paste. They are ridiculously alike. Like Bitcon would not be a money but some art or I dont know what. Maybe reason is that people follow last cycle and they have so much wealth so they make a trend. LOL, only reasonable explanation.

And I hope you can get liquidated. So it will look a bit more real. So far it looked like you cant be. You sold BTC at end of 2017 and bought at beginning of 2019. Same you could do a cycle before. Sold at end of 2013 and bought at beginning of 2015. If this "art" continue, what I so surrealistic believe it will you could sell at end of this year and buy back at beginning of 2023. It is just copy paste. Hopefully it will be different this time.

tranthidung

legendary

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

Quote from: Febo on April 25, 2021, 11:31:03 AM

It is sort of ridiculous how similar are different Bitcoin cycles. Like someone would manipulatively copy pasted them. We are half year from the crash. If that happens then it will be another confirmation of this ridiculous copy/paste theory.

History can be repeated but if you blindly believe in history and future repeats, and gamble with leverage you will be liquidated.

Bitcoin will have rises and falls but the general trend over years are uptrend. Addtionally, if you take a historic price of yearly lowest price, you will see the general uptrend (yearly) more clearly.

Copy and paste, do you mean about fractals? There are fractals and they are activated after all preparations for TAs are finished, on time, and whales accumulations are done.

Febo

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It is sort of ridiculous how similar are different Bitcoin cycles. Like someone would manipulatively copy pasted them. We are half year from the crash. If that happens then it will be another confirmation of this ridiculous copy/paste theory.

tranthidung

legendary

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

The correction give us time to cool down, stay quiet and spend a few time to think of the market. If one can use his/her time wisely, it is time to look back the history. Obviously, checking the price history retrospectively should be done weeks ago, not now. Fortunately, if you are still here, and has yet suicide, your orders have yet been liquidated, ok later is still better then never.

In the bull run from 2016 to 2017
- Bitcoin has a few times to test MA18 line for 1W candle.
- After a few tests like that, Bitcoin tops up around $20,000.
In the bull run from 2020 to 2021
- Bitcoin has only on test for the line.
- The current correction can be the second test for that line.
- The first test is in September 2020

tranthidung

legendary

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

Peter Brandt tweeted about the past corrections of BTC. The image is taken from his report in Factor LLC.

8 corrections since 2015 to 2017 with 30⁺% corrections.
It is worth to note for you: 5 of the 8 occur in 2017.
The average period of 5 corrections in 2017 is 6.4 weeks.
In 2021: there are only 2 big corrections. It is too soon to conclude the the period of corrections will be reduced in 2021 (but it might because of the hype from institutes and the crowd). The level of corrections are still somewhere around 30%.

My thoughts have yet changed and I expect to see the last call around $40,000. Bitcoin has gone through a one year of bull run since the massive weak down in March 2020.
I don't compare the period from March 2020 to March 2021 to what happened since 2016 -2017 (1 year period too) but there are ugly hands behind the scene might to repeat history. Who knows? Make your plans (A and B).

Quote from: ?? on ??

It is on the verge of bounce back or fall deeper (look at BTC.D chart - 1week)
Bitcoin price chart (not dominance): bigger probability for deeper falls (deeper than BTC.D).
It is not a must but I will be very happy if Bitcoin has a last call about $40,000 before shooting off to the Moon.

tranthidung

legendary

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

Quote from: el kaka22 on February 19, 2021, 12:48:18 PM

How come there is no "rise or fall streaks" in bitcoin in January and February of 2021 but the price has managed to go up 78% in the same period? There must have been some increasing streaks during that period, or dropping.

Streaks here (in this topic) are identified with my quoted definition. In order to emphasize that bitcoin has some good in-a-row rises or falls so far in 2021, I presented it in my above post.

Quote from: tranthidung on December 20, 2020, 07:57:24 AM

Definitions

Generally, streaks here are 5⁺-days streaks (positive or negative).

Quote from: ?? on ??

To be safe, exit your positions before the end of third week in January

In coming four weeks, bitcoin might be pulled back and altcoin dominance will rise up more. In my forecasts, bitcoin dominance has not bottomed and altcoin dominance has not topped up yet. Changes of dominances for bitcoin, and altcoins are depended on prices of BTC, altcoins and the new altcoin projects. Old altcoins might rally and contirbute to altcoin dominance but new altcoin projects have big biassed contributions as well. You can not exclude the bias factor from new altcoins have sprung up everyday in the bull market.

el kaka22

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www.Crypto.Games: Multiple coins, multiple games

How come there is no "rise or fall streaks" in bitcoin in January and February of 2021 but the price has managed to go up 78% in the same period? There must have been some increasing streaks during that period, or dropping.

Like when it reached from 28k to 38k+ price, wasn't that a streak of few days when it happened? Or I remember price reaching from 38k levels to 28k as well, that was a few days of dropping as well.

Those four days in a row should be considered streaks if you ask me, because bitcoin moving to one direction non-stop for 4 days means a lot, considering we are in a very volatile market having 4 days of one direction means that we could be changing a whole lot in that 4 days and not just small numbers neither.

In any case, I feel like the bear is getting closer and closer, doesn't mean that we will have a loss streak tomorrow, but its closer than it ever was.

tranthidung

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

In 2021, so far

There is neither rise nor fall streak.
Bitcoin has been trading up and down in a few days but the general trend is upward. It is understandable as bitcoin is in its parabolic ride.
The longest rises or falls last four days in a row, in maximum
Bitcoin has a 78.24% of rise from 1 Jan 2021 (open price at $28,994) to 18 Feb 2021 (close price at $51,680)

tranthidung

legendary

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

So far, in this year 2021, Bitcoin does not have a single streak. The last streak is spanning from late of 2020 to 3 Jan 2021. The table shows that the longest rise or fall lasts for only 4 days in-a-row.

You can also check it with a different method by using the Heikin Ashi candle on Trading View.

From another perspective for the Dominance of bitcoin: 1D chart sheds a light that bitcoin can bounce back a little bit but 1W chart reflects that there is chance for bitcoin to fall lower.

However, the dominance of bitcoin is not only decided by the price of bitcoin but also by the total marketcap of altcoins. When altcoins are in their season and on a hype phase, altcoin dominance will increase a lot by their 'fake' marketcap. By that I mean it is not a mandatory condition that bitcoin price has to fall down as a prerequisite for a lower bitcoin dominance.

Additionally, it seems altcoins have been warmed up enough to trigger their season. Check the bitcoin/ altcoin season

To recap, I believe that bitcoin is in its correction that would be long enough. This condition is enough for altcoins to set up their altcoin season. Bitcoin might have deeper price or a stable price with not significant fluctuations in coming days.

lifeforcepools

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Does this mean that we should not expect a significant price increase in 2021? Although it seems to me that it is not necessary to somehow link the year and the growth trend.

jademaxxiss012

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Merit: 15

I just checked the bitcoin market and for me it is very shocking to get bitcoin in that current market price. I think this new bitcoin streaks of market increase is a record breaking though OP had made a good representation of the data for bitcoin market sadly I am not good in interpreting the analysis of the data. What I understand is that bitcoin really had some balls when you think of it as money maker, investment and the likes.

tranthidung

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

Quote from: pawanjain on January 05, 2021, 10:30:14 AM

As per the above data it seems that 2014 was the worst year for bitcoin. It had the lowest number of positive streaks and highest number of negative streaks in 2014.

You can see the difference in total rise / fall streaks in bearish or bullish year. In bullish year, rise streaks dominate the data, and longevity of streaks look longer as well as percent of gain in every streak tends to be higher and vice versa for bearish year.

Quote

Bitcoin gains were moderate as of 2020 but if it keeps growing on this rate then 2021 might be a very good year for bitcoin. Chances are there we might break the positive streak record of 2017.

Records (for Rise) are 2 parts:

Total streaks within a specific year
Max value of % gain among all streaks in a specific year. It makes sense to take profit
Unfortunately, it is purely data, and does not give you safe heaven to end with profit. Entry and exit points with correlated period are key to finish your trades/ investments.

Quote

If you don't mind which tool do you use to get the bitcoin price for each year/month ? Is there any API or something ?

I maybe forgot to mention data source in OP (that I usually do), it is taken from coinmarketcap.com.

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/

pawanjain

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Nothing lasts forever

Wow, that's some really nice info. As per the above data it seems that 2014 was the worst year for bitcoin. It had the lowest number of positive streaks and highest number of negative streaks in 2014.
Bitcoin gains were moderate as of 2020 but if it keeps growing on this rate then 2021 might be a very good year for bitcoin. Chances are there we might break the positive streak record of 2017.

@tranthidung If you don't mind which tool do you use to get the bitcoin price for each year/month ? Is there any API or something ?

tranthidung

legendary

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

The year 2020 ends with the last rising streak from 29 December 2020 to 2 Jan 2021. It is also a 55^th Rise streak and 75^th streak (for both Rise and Fall streaks) in history of bitcoin.

The close price on 2 Jan 2021 is $32,127 so if today the close price is higher than that, the 75^th will keep going. Let's see.

When I have spare time in coming days, I will make the analysis for Weekly streaks that will be an upgraded from Daily streaks. Stay tuned!

scottsanderman12

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Thank you for a deep analytics!

tranthidung

legendary

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

Eventually, the crazy rise streak from 12 Dec 2020 ended yesterday on 20 Dec 2020. It makes the last rise streak in 2020 has its duration is 8 days, from 12 Dec 2020 to 19 Dec 2020.

In the streak, the price moves from $18051.32 to $23869.83 with the percent of increase is at 32.23%. It is not a highest rise streak in history of bitcoin but still amazing. I hope you enjoyed the streak in the last 2 weeks.

Bitcoin price history -- most profitable and bloodiest months, days. Check the thread to see how volatile the December is for bitcoin (in most profitable and bloodiest days).

The box plot shows December is not the most volatile month (because the outliers - Red circes are for August and November) but still is one of the most volatile (because its box that represents the interquartile range = p75 - p25 is one of the most widest months). Details are there

Update
I update the sheet with a chronological table for all streaks (rise and fall)

With total 75 streaks and 74 timegap values, the median of time gap is 26 days and the interquartile range is 10 days to 46 days. It means 50% of 2 consecutive streaks occur around 26 days. How wide or narrow around the median? 50% of 74 streaks have timegaps fluctuate around 10 days to 46 days.

How about longevity of streaks?

50% of 75 streaks have the longevity range from 5 to 6 days (same values for Rise streaks and Fall streaks)
The longest rise streak lasts for 13 days and the longest fall streak lasts for 12 days.

Code:

    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     timegap |      74.0      32.0      28.2      26.0      10.0      46.0       1.0     125.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Three months with highest streak counts are October (11 streaks), November (9 streaks) and March (7 streaks). The sample size is small for each calendar month so values for following parameters are only for future reference (iqr, p25, p75, median, min and max of timegap).

Code:

     +------------------------------------------------------------+
     | month   streakcount   iqr   p25   p75   min   max   median |
     |------------------------------------------------------------|
  1. |     1             6     6    26    32    14    39       28 |
  2. |     4             5    17    34    51    10    55       45 |
  3. |    11             9    18    16    34     2    99       25 |
  4. |    12             5    20     9    29     8    38       21 |
  5. |     7             6    26    20    46    11   125       36 |
  6. |     5             5    28    12    40     3    67       24 |
  7. |     9             3    29     5    34     5    34       30 |
  8. |     3             7    38     8    46     1    54       15 |
  9. |     2             6    47    10    57     2   107       22 |
 10. |     6             6    51     4    55     2    62       16 |
 11. |     8             6    54    12    66     3    91     26.5 |
 12. |    10            11    66     5    71     2   102       12 |
     +------------------------------------------------------------+

tranthidung

legendary

Activity: 2310

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Farewell o_e_l_e_o

Before jump into the content, I hope you are doing well and enjoying the crazy bull run of bitcoin.

Bitcoin is volatile and it rises or falls in small or big changes over time. This thread is published to give information about Bitcoin streaks. The term of streak is familiar with gamblers but for non-gamblers and non-native English speakers, you might confuse about it. Let's me explain a bit.

Streak means something happen in-a-row, continuously. It can be win / loss, rise/ fall. The alternative term can be spell. It is a language term and you can choose one that fits you, just understand the meaning of streak I use here.

Definitions

Rise streaks: a streak when % change between close price and open price is Positive (>0) for at least 5 days in-a-row.
Fall streaks: a streak when % change between close price and open price is Negative (<0) for at least 5 days in-a-row.
Generally, streaks here are 5⁺-days streaks (positive or negative).

We are enjoying the crazy bull run so let's get started with Rise streaks.
Rise Streaks
Color codes

Summary
Bitcoin broke the record in 2017 and increased a lot after that but in some indicators (below), the current bull run and this year are not the longest and biggest run of bitcoin. It is true in indicators for total rise streaks, total days of all streaks within a year, maximum of longevity of streaks within a year, average value of % changes of price for all streaks within a year.

Details
2017 is the year is highest total rise streaks (10), second is 2019 (9), 2013 ( 8 ).

Code:

    +----------------------------+
     | rank   year   YearlyStreak |
     |----------------------------|
  1. |    1   2017             10 |
  2. |    2   2019              9 |
  3. |    3   2013              8 |
  4. |    4   2016              7 |
  5. |    5   2020              7 |
  6. |    6   2015              6 |
  7. |    7   2018              4 |
  8. |    8   2014              3 |
     +----------------------------+

Top 3 years in mean of poc_s of all streaks in each year are: 2013 (31.47%), 2017 (28.51%), 2014 (22.52%)

Code:

     +------------------------+
     | rank   year      poc_s |
     |------------------------|
  1. |    1   2013   31.46625 |
  2. |    2   2017     28.507 |
  3. |    3   2014      22.52 |
  4. |    4   2018    21.8975 |
  5. |    5   2020   18.19571 |
  6. |    6   2019   18.19333 |
  7. |    7   2015   14.46667 |
  8. |    8   2016   11.60429 |
     +------------------------+

Ranks for all Rise streaks according to poc_s values

Code:

     +------------------------------+
     | rank   year   _spell   poc_s |
     |------------------------------|
  1. |    1   2017       34   80.68 |
  2. |    2   2013        7    69.7 |
  3. |    3   2013        6      50 |
  4. |    4   2013        8   46.11 |
  5. |    5   2019       45   43.37 |
  6. |    6   2013        1   43.26 |
  7. |    7   2017       29   40.27 |
  8. |    8   2017       31   37.87 |
  9. |    9   2020       54   32.23 |
 10. |   10   2017       30   29.42 |
 11. |   11   2017       32   28.73 |
 12. |   12   2018       35   28.64 |
 13. |   13   2020       50   27.93 |
 14. |   14   2018       38   27.75 |
 15. |   15   2014        9   26.27 |
 16. |   16   2019       42    25.4 |
 17. |   17   2017       33   24.58 |
 18. |   18   2019       46   23.98 |
 19. |   19   2014       11   23.79 |
 20. |   20   2015       16   23.08 |
 21. |   21   2016       19   20.64 |
 22. |   22   2016       24   20.21 |
 23. |   23   2018       37   19.76 |
 24. |   24   2015       12   19.14 |
 25. |   25   2015       17   17.89 |
 26. |   26   2019       44    17.6 |
 27. |   27   2014       10    17.5 |
 28. |   28   2020       48   16.88 |
 29. |   29   2020       53   16.84 |
 30. |   30   2016       23    16.6 |
 31. |   31   2019       43    14.7 |
 32. |   32   2020       52   14.52 |
 33. |   33   2017       25   13.34 |
 34. |   34   2013        3   13.13 |
 35. |   35   2017       28   11.94 |
 36. |   36   2017       27   11.92 |
 37. |   37   2019       47   11.65 |
 38. |   38   2018       36   11.44 |
 39. |   39   2019       41   11.12 |
 40. |   40   2013        5   11.08 |
 41. |   41   2019       39   10.57 |
 42. |   42   2015       15   10.38 |
 43. |   43   2016       20   10.25 |
 44. |   44   2020       49   10.16 |
 45. |   45   2015       13    9.64 |
 46. |   46   2013        2    9.49 |
 47. |   47   2016       21    9.25 |
 48. |   48   2013        4    8.96 |
 49. |   49   2020       51    8.81 |
 50. |   50   2015       14    6.67 |
 51. |   51   2017       26    6.32 |
 52. |   52   2019       40    5.35 |
 53. |   53   2016       18    2.18 |
 54. |   54   2016       22     2.1 |
     +------------------------------+

Fall Streaks

2014 is the most terrible years according to total fall streaks (9). For rest years, there is no significant difference when the values range from 3 to 1. If you notice, total fall streaks each year (in bull or bear market, tend to be less than total Rise streaks). Amazing right?

Code:

     +----------------------------+
     | rank   year   YearlyStreak |
     |----------------------------|
  1. |    1   2014              9 |
  2. |    2   2018              3 |
  3. |    3   2016              3 |
  4. |    4   2020              2 |
  5. |    5   2019              2 |
  6. |    6   2013              1 |
  7. |    7   2015              1 |
     +----------------------------+

2018 is the year with most terrible mean of poc_s value for all streak in that year (-16.92%), next years are 2014 (-12.07%), 2016 (-11.03%).

Code:

     +-------------------------+
     | rank   year       poc_s |
     |-------------------------|
  1. |    1   2018   -16.92333 |
  2. |    2   2014   -12.07111 |
  3. |    3   2016   -11.03333 |
  4. |    4   2019     -10.745 |
  5. |    5   2020      -9.955 |
  6. |    6   2015       -9.45 |
  7. |    7   2013       -8.71 |
     +-------------------------+

Ranks for all Fall streaks according to poc_s values

Code:

     +-------------------------------+
     | rank   year   _spell    poc_s |
     |-------------------------------|
  1. |    1   2018       15   -22.91 |
  2. |    2   2016       12   -20.37 |
  3. |    3   2014        8    -17.6 |
  4. |    4   2014       10   -17.27 |
  5. |    5   2014        7   -15.94 |
  6. |    6   2019       18    -14.9 |
  7. |    7   2018       16   -14.46 |
  8. |    8   2014        9   -13.83 |
  9. |    9   2020       20    -13.7 |
 10. |   10   2018       17    -13.4 |
 11. |   11   2014        4   -11.82 |
 12. |   12   2014        6    -9.84 |
 13. |   13   2015       11    -9.45 |
 14. |   14   2013        1    -8.71 |
 15. |   15   2014        2    -8.53 |
 16. |   16   2016       13    -8.53 |
 17. |   17   2014        3     -7.6 |
 18. |   18   2019       19    -6.59 |
 19. |   19   2020       21    -6.21 |
 20. |   20   2014        5    -6.21 |
 21. |   21   2016       14     -4.2 |
     +-------------------------------+

My life is not done yet. I will write an abstract soon!

Anyway, enjoy for now Wink

Topic: Bitcoin Streaks (Rise/ Fall) - 2013 to 2020 (Read 502 times)