Bitcoin Supercycle? - page 4. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Smartprofit

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Quote from: Comingdown on April 01, 2023, 02:11:44 PM

Is it possible to have a bull run for the next couple of years? I mean more people and companies start using bitcoin often and knowing there's a limited supply of it, the demand for the crypto will go up eventually. Do you think it's possible considering inflation and our global economy today? I know its a very volatile asset but what do you think?

In my opinion, it is necessary to take into account the fact that the dizzying rise in the price of bitcoin was accompanied by two important factors.

The first factor was that only a limited number of people knew about Bitcoin.

By now, most people on planet Earth are aware that Bitcoin is a deflationary financial asset that rises over time and makes its owners wealthy. In a situation where all people realize the value of the first cryptocurrency, it is difficult for Bitcoin to demonstrate an impressive increase in its price.

The second factor is that bank discount rates (refinancing rates) around the world were very low (near zero values).

The price of Bitcoin, denominated in the US dollar, was growing in a "weak US dollar" environment. However, now the situation has changed. The US Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, and even when this process stops, interest rates will not return to their previous zero values.

Therefore, based on this, in the next two years, the price of Bitcoin will not show dizzying growth.

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Quote from: ichsan ardi on April 02, 2023, 04:12:26 PM

Quote from: Comingdown on April 01, 2023, 02:11:44 PM

Is it possible to have a bull run for the next couple of years? I mean more people and companies start using bitcoin often and knowing there's a limited supply of it, the demand for the crypto will go up eventually. Do you think it's possible considering inflation and our global economy today? I know its a very volatile asset but what do you think?

I think in times of inflation people are turning to riskier assets like bitcoin because bitcoin is resistant to inflation but from my point of view bitcoin is going to be a very valuable asset in the future as it is in limited supply I'm sure many will do. switching to bitcoin for example companies in America on average have switched to bitcoin.

Been watching a finance guy on youtube for a very long time and he is big on gold and silver but after some time when CBDC was announced by the government, he seem to have sometimes segued to Bitcoin.

The bank crisis I think made him switch after seeing how it could domino affect his bank I guess he has shielded himself before it's too late. I think many will do the same as he did and probably this will widen the adoption and push the supercycle as more holders are coming and the halving will make it happen.

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Quote from: Comingdown on April 01, 2023, 02:11:44 PM

Is it possible to have a bull run for the next couple of years? I mean more people and companies start using bitcoin often and knowing there's a limited supply of it, the demand for the crypto will go up eventually. Do you think it's possible considering inflation and our global economy today? I know its a very volatile asset but what do you think?

I think in times of inflation people are turning to riskier assets like bitcoin because bitcoin is resistant to inflation but from my point of view bitcoin is going to be a very valuable asset in the future as it is in limited supply I'm sure many will do. switching to bitcoin for example companies in America on average have switched to bitcoin.

Supreemo

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there was this popular belief years ago that bitcoin will undergo some kind of reset after 3-5 years, just like what happened before. i don't know if it's true or not but coincedentally it happened again 3 times already. seems like it made another correction and calm the market down and will pump again to reach a new ATH. i am not too keen about predictions and beliefs such as that since there's no one who actually proved those things, and most of the times those who claimed to be that they predicted it right were just speculations or just analysis they did before.

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Quote from: Comingdown on April 01, 2023, 02:11:44 PM

Is it possible to have a bull run for the next couple of years? I mean more people and companies start using bitcoin often and knowing there's a limited supply of it, the demand for the crypto will go up eventually. Do you think it's possible considering inflation and our global economy today? I know its a very volatile asset but what do you think?

Possible.

I mean we've known Bitcoin as a very unpredictable cryptocurrency. I guess it all depends on your beliefs towards the price movement of Bitcoin. If you believe in the 4-year cycle of Bitcoin, then you don't expect for a Bitcoin supercycle anytime. Now if you think that Bitcoin will one time break that 4-year cycle in the future, then it's possible that a Bitcoin supercycle will happen.

Overall, it's hard to know when because Bitcoin is unpredictable. We might seen those 4-year cycles happening in the past, but there's always a 1% or more chance that it might break that cycle thus, we might see Bitcoin going down for more than a year and vice-versa. As for me, I don't think that this will happen after how I saw the price movement of Bitcoin in the past.

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Quote from: Comingdown on April 01, 2023, 02:11:44 PM

Is it possible to have a bull run for the next couple of years? I mean more people and companies start using bitcoin often and knowing there's a limited supply of it, the demand for the crypto will go up eventually. Do you think it's possible considering inflation and our global economy today? I know its a very volatile asset but what do you think?

Bitcoin has been a great asset for protecting people from hyperinflation. If hyperinflation occurs in larger countries, crypto could benefit from it. However, what we are currently hearing is just speculation. Bitcoin can still rise in value without that factor. By studying the trend, you can figure out when to buy and sell.

If you don't want to stress yourself out too much, you can buy now and hold for the long term. Set a high target for yourself, so you'll be more profitable when the time comes to sell your holdings.

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Quote from: Comingdown on April 01, 2023, 02:11:44 PM

Is it possible to have a bull run for the next couple of years? I mean more people and companies start using bitcoin often and knowing there's a limited supply of it, the demand for the crypto will go up eventually. Do you think it's possible considering inflation and our global economy today? I know its a very volatile asset but what do you think?

Possible but most unlikely.

You went into a coma in 2021 and have just woken up?

At the time there was a lot of talk about the supercycle, with Dan Held saying the price would be half a million by now, and look where we are. If it already seemed like an exaggerated prediction then, imagine how likely it seems to me now.

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I don't think anyone here has the crystal ball to accurately predict the entire behavior of Bitcoin. But, as mentioned above, according to historical behavior, the growth of Bitcoin after the halving is assumed. In addition, all the events taking place in the world are increasingly pushing people to insure their assets by investing in Bitcoin. Therefore, all moods suggest that bitcoin investments should be successful, and literate people, when making their calculations, prefer bitcoin. You can watch how Microstrategy believes in Bitcoin, having recently bought another 64,560 BTC for $150 million.

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Quote from: Comingdown on April 01, 2023, 02:11:44 PM

Is it possible to have a bull run for the next couple of years? I mean more people and companies start using bitcoin often and knowing there's a limited supply of it, the demand for the crypto will go up eventually. Do you think it's possible considering inflation and our global economy today? I know its a very volatile asset but what do you think?

Yes, it is possible. After the halving, as usual.

Just inflation and the problems of the global economy can push investors to invest in bitcoin.

This is a very volatile instrument, but it is neither bad nor good. It's just the way btc works today. Volatility only plays into the hands of traders and allows them to earn. Volatility doesn't scare long-term investors, because one way or another in years they will receive their profit. So it turns out that volatility only scares those who are not in contact with bitcoin. That is, those who still have not bought this.

hugeblack

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What you're trying to say is the normal definition of cycles, which are supposed to occur every four years, so an average of two to three years makes sense based on a lot of historical data.

In previous times, we used to break the previous ATH, but no one knows what will happen in the future.
It is not a Supercycle because "Supercycle" means that something unique happens which is not unique based on historical data.

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Quote from: Comingdown on April 01, 2023, 02:11:44 PM

Is it possible to have a bull run for the next couple of years? I mean more people and companies start using bitcoin often and knowing there's a limited supply of it, the demand for the crypto will go up eventually. Do you think it's possible considering inflation and our global economy today? I know its a very volatile asset but what do you think?

we often talk about this many time, that possible we can hear the same answer. but, I just want make it clear for you, if you still in doubt don't continue it, but if you believe you don't have to worry to invest all of your money. Bitcoin is very well tested a dozen years, I don't know What else makes people doubt about bitcoin, if bitcoin listed a couple year ago, of course we have to worry, but in fact bitcoin is listed a dozen year, when fiat is more powerful than now.

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Bitcoin doesn't remain bull all time from history we have known bitcoin as a volatile currency so they companies should be aware of it. The theory of bitcoin and any other coin out there is for up and down movement so it may not remain all bull for a years.

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: Comingdown on April 01, 2023, 02:11:44 PM

I mean more people and companies start using bitcoin often and knowing there's a limited supply of it, the demand for the crypto will go up eventually.

That was the narrative behind the 2021 bull run. Big companies like Tesla and Microstrategy announced that they are adopting Bitcoin, post-covid inflation was kicking in and Bitcoin was theorized to be a hedge against it. If any of that was true and Bitcoin was indeed getting adopted, it wouldn't have crashed so hard.

So, theoretically supercycle is possible, but on practice it's just public statements from companies that they will use Bitcoin, followed by no actual adoption. And Bitcoin owners aren't rushing to spend their coins when such option emerges either - they would rarther hodl Bitcoin and spend fiat instead.

Ryu_Ar1

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Actually, in this condition, the Halving is really a great hope to encourage most people to be here.
Looking at some of the previous conditions of the Halving although I am still not too familiar with it but it is indeed very possible for a big push to occur.
Expecting too much about this is certainly not very good, but the expectations are obviously very high if you look at the current conditions. Let's hope that hope comes true.

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Quote from: Comingdown on April 01, 2023, 02:11:44 PM

Is it possible to have a bull run for the next couple of years? I mean more people and companies start using bitcoin often and knowing there's a limited supply of it, the demand for the crypto will go up eventually. Do you think it's possible considering inflation and our global economy today? I know its a very volatile asset but what do you think?

If I'm not mistaken, there are new school of thoughts about bitcoin cycle, which what they call now super cycle. The reason behind this is that since bitcoin narrative have chance, we might see super cycle before the bull run, or at least the catalyst of it all, the block halving. Initially I just dismissed this theory, but it seems that this year, before the halving, we are somewhat in the bull run.

But for me, super cycles can only be achieved if we are going to reach a new all time high this year, so maybe $70k or higher. So that will be the first cycle, and then it will be culminated when we have our scheduled block halving pushing the price even higher and more than double the first cycle of $70k or up. So we shall see what scenario will work for this year as you have said there are a lot of factors, like the banking crisis or the inflation in our global economy. And if there is the right time to test this theory it will be this year and 2024-2025.

pixie85

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This is one of the possibilities for bitcoin in the next 10 years or so.
As you know we are going through a time of high inflation and some banks are among the companies that were "swimming naked". The governments and famous economists are trying to make us think high inflation is going away, but it's possible they broke the system by printing too much in 2020 and 21 and cutting rates won't save them this time.

In a scenario where biggest currencies like USD and EUR go into 20% inflation and big banks in regions that were seen as safe like Switzerland go bankrupt we could see bitcoin explode and keep going for years without a bear market.

I don't see it happening soon because the governments will try to slow it down as much as they can by dumping whatever digital assets they have on these low liquidity markets and trying to pass laws that prohibit mining.

Stalker22

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I cannot be sure, but I think it is possible. I mean, if more people start using it and the supply remains limited, then demand should go up, right? And let us not forget about the global economy and inflation rates. But, you know, if we could predict the future of bitcoin, we would all be millionaires by now, right?

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Quote from: Comingdown on April 01, 2023, 02:11:44 PM

Is it possible to have a bull run for the next couple of years? I mean more people and companies start using bitcoin often and knowing there's a limited supply of it, the demand for the crypto will go up eventually.

No brainer, yes.

Quote from: Comingdown on April 01, 2023, 02:11:44 PM

Do you think it's possible considering inflation and our global economy today? I know its a very volatile asset but what do you think?

Definitely.
Financial institutions, companies, and anything related to finance will find a way to hedge against inflation. And with bad stuff and news happening in the banking scene, that's gonna make them find another way to fight the inflation and potential collapse of these institutions. I think that these companies are done studying bitcoin and they do know the cycles are happening and with halvings, they do get what's in it for bitcoin and if they do understand it correctly. That means that they don't want to be left behind by potential profits that might get in their way. Yes, it's volatile but nothing is volatile that shall give them sweet profits even gold and stocks are also volatile.

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Quote from: Comingdown on April 01, 2023, 02:11:44 PM

Is it possible to have a bull run for the next couple of years? I mean more people and companies start using bitcoin often

As you just said, the more it is used the better. Just Bitcoin is far from being fast, It's just a perfect store of value for most.
Litecoin settles much faster and even under volatility you lose a few $ und Bitcoin till it settles a few 100 could be gone or added, either way someone will be angry.

lionheart78

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The next halving is always an indicator of a bullish market and a possible bull run that can break the present all-time high. More or less market may transition to a bull run even before the scheduled Bitcoin halving on 2024 due to the news and hype this Bitcoin halving brings. This kind of market activity had been observed in the past and may have a big chance of repeating itself since the Bitcoin market is cyclical and the halving event is the focal point.

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