Topic: Bitcoin supply shock will come, price will make new ATH (Read 269 times)

Whatever be the case, the Op already specified, which you are also in agreement with, that DCA is the way to go and that is absolutely correct. If we hit another supply zone that lead to massive retracements, it is still opportunity to buy more and never a time to panic. Anyone optimistic that Bitcoin is not going into any bear run soon, which I think is the position of majority of Bitcoiners, then there will be no better time to accumulate more Bitcoin than now that price is relatively low. The combined effect of the halving and the ETF approval will surely take Bitcoin price higher than it is now, at least above $100k before the end of this market cycle.

Why do you think the ETH ETF approval is a sad thing for bitcoin? We should be happy about that, why should we be sad? To me, more coins approved for ETFs is a good thing for the crypto industry and the market, no reason to be sad here. I believe that even if we did not have ETH ETFs, institutions and investors would never put their eggs in one basket because that is the golden rule of investing and everyone knows it. We should have a broader vision that crypto assets will compete with traditional assets, and to create fair competition, we need to legalize more crypto assets.
I think the approval of ETH ETF will help the cryptocurrency industry become more popular and from there bitcoin will benefit more.

That's absolutely correct that Bitcoin we soon make an ATH in the cryptocurrency market industries. Base on the historical growth of Bitcoin price that normally occurs after four years of Bitcoin halving has been take place, next is Bull Run market that we soon take place. Because of reduction of supplies and Bitcoin always been on high demand assets.

Unfortunately you've made your post in the morning(UTC/forum time) but in the evening of the same day SEC approved Ethereum ETF spot, so I don't think this analysis and its conclusions are still relevant unfortunately. We should expect a reallocation of institutional investments towards Ethereum and Eth ETFs especially. It's sad for Bitcoin, but I don't think institutional investors will put all their eggs in one basket, while they can secure their investment by diversifying it onto 2 different cryptocurrencies using 2 different technologies for validating their respective blockchain datas. Not talking about their different use cases, one being more used for payments and for storing value, the other one for smart contracts.

It's because one of Bitcoin characteristics is Fungible.

The bullish case for Bitcoin is a very educational insightful article/ book for learning about Bitcoin basics. Available on Amazon.

DCA with small capital like $10 a week or $40 month can give an investor with DCA strategy, last 4 years good profit.
https://dcabtc.com?sd=2021-05-26&sda=3_years&f=weekly&d=4_years&ac=1000&c=false

Another site to calculate DCA investment result.
https://costavg.com/

This is big flag for people who always want to use all capital to do just one thing. Because life is not always rosy as dream, sometimes the investment stuck with temporarily bad results, and if we don't have other source of money, we have to cash it out, with loss.

It makes life easier, less stress and can help to gain better ROI for investment too.

We await to see that time coming whereby bitcoin will make a new all time high, we already know this is coming but we don't have an idea of how sooner or when will it be coming closer, many have already speculated and predicted as well that bitcoin will reach its all time high of $150,000 by next year and we are already seeing the signs for that with the way of recent market sentiments for each months.

There is no fixed amount to be invested in Bitcoin therefore an Investor can invest any amount according to his financial gain. One who puts their whole fund into Bitcoin usually regrets because they cannot sell it during bear season and cannot continue it because they need some money for another job.

Bitcoin investors should keep some extra amount so when Bitcoin decreases then there will be another sum with them to be used for necessary things. Bitcoin investment requires lots of years and if you have no patience, no control over your emotions and cannot predict the market then you should not invest in Bitcoin because as the profit is higher with Bitcoin so the risk is also very high with it.

Don't believe in technical analysis because technical parameters can be manipulated by market makers. They see what we see and they with their big capital, more experience, better discipline and patience, can do their game setup during many months.

Don't believe in sayings like "Sell in May and go away" because historic price table, monthly ROIs of Bitcoin shows that its price performances in past May months are not too bad.

Is "Sell in May" really a good idea (in the case of Bitcoin)?
https://cryptorank.io/price/bitcoin

It’s just May and there’s still plenty of time for ath to be reached. People are even speculating about a possible price of 100k usd by the end of the year. Of course like you said the chances of it happening would depend a lot on different factors. If a positive event happens by the end of the year, a 100k usd price is not impossible just like what happened last year before new year’s.

I am curious though If you do not believe in technical analysis, what do you usually use to make estimates of market movements?

DCA is a good investment strategy and with solid adoption and growth of Bitcoin, it will continue to be a good strategy in future.

Stagnation is very bad scenario to come and we won't know will global economy have a soft landing or hard landing. Technical recession or recession, governments and central banks only want to reduce severity of what are happening in many countries and the globe.

Whatever scenario with economy, I believe Bitcoin will be one of best investment for us.

I can not disagree, pooya87. People who are late comers in Bitcoin market will say common about early Bitcoin adopters, miners, investors, that these early birds are very lucky to become millionaires, billionaires by knowing about Bitcoin too early. They did not see that there are many challenges for early birds. Uncertainty about future of Bitcoin, when it will die, when it price will fall to 0.

Who actually became millionaires or billionaries had to go through many challenges to get what they have now. It's not lucky.

People must invest money they can afford to lose, it's popular advice.

They must reserve some money, big enough, for things in life and avoid to sell their bitcoins when they don't want to sell, even in profit or worse in loss.

It's not easy to do and if they can do it, get profit with Bitcoin investment, it's not lucky.

I do believe that we'll see another price spike by the end of this year, but there's plenty of time left for stagnation or even a brief bear market. I don't believe in technical analysis, so I'm not sure that we'll see positive change in the near future. It's not so simple, and a lot of events can change the price dynamics. In the meantime, there's no harm in doing DCA, of course.

Any investor who claims to have never sold a part of his investment no matter how little an amount  the sale may be, he is probably lying. Both the big and small investors at some point do sell out some coins to later continue with restocking. We can't control how things should happen to us and that's why there are time critical emergencies could happen to us and we might have no other choice than being pressured to sell a little. And with how good and comforting the economy of every country is today, one should be glad they have an asset to partly sell to get rid of their problems unprepared for.

Yes true, when FOMO starts there will be a lot of people who will end up with something that will take us to a good place, and that should not be a big problem, I feel like we are going to end up with a good result one way or another and we should probably consider how we could get better at it as well.

It does not mean that we are going to get something good out of this, but I am saying that we are going to do fine eventually, that is not really the problem because seeing drops time to time means that we are just drawing back, so that we can go further at another try. Getting rid of the longs/shorts and getting rid of stop loss, and getting rid of some orders, all of that equals to having just buyers left in the market which helps.

Bitcoin will surely reach a new ATH this year which will break its current ATH, and there's chance that Bitcoin may break that new ATH once again when buying pressure gets intense. If we check the history then we can understand that we are still away from the months where Bitcoin performed its best in previous bull runs.

I firmly believe that within 1 and half years we may see Bitcoin reaching way higher values than most speculations and if that happens then the ones who bought it when it was still below $60k would surely have some good profits, and the ones who accumulated Bitcoin with DCA+DIP buying strategy should have much higher profits within those 1 and half years.

It is easier said than done. Everyone including the hardcore investors would sell their coins at some point. It is not going to be "dump all the stash" but it is a sale nonetheless.

And here is another problem, as the economy in a lot of countries is getting worse and worse every day, more people go under "financial pressure" which means more bitcoin investors have been considering selling some coins. This means a constant sell pressure is present due to the worsening economy. Something I don't see speculators consider in their speculations these days.

We can experience both the situations of fall and rise because the crypto market cannot remain longer in a similar pattern like two days ago there was 71k$ of worth but now it is 69k$ so we have experienced fall in value which is not a new thing in the market.

Whales are trading on huge scale so therefore the market fluctuates a lot but as the supply of Bitcoin is the same and Bitcoin cannot increase in its number therefore when the buying rate increases then price also increases so we trust that very soon we will see another ATH. Apply the DCA and take the benefit from every situation without getting into a worried situation about what will happen.

I don't disagree with the conclusion drawn in the OP. I would also recommend to continue a DCA-based strategy now, as I see us firmly in a bull market, even if there may more dips to follow.

However, I want to point out that the exchange holding graphs of Cryptoquant, Glassnode etc. look much more dramatic than they really are.

For example, between January 2023 and today according to Cryptoquant the exchange holdings went down from 2.2 million to 1.9 million Bitcoins. 300000 BTC less, that is a respectable number, you'll say It's the equivalent of 20.4 billion USD (at a price of 68000$ per BTC).

But this equation is wrong, because the BTC price in January 2023 (Edit: lol, I wrote 2020 first) was at about $20000.

So if you take the dollar value, the USD value of BTC exchange holdings went actually up, and by a lot - from 44 billion USD to 129 billion! This means exactly what it means: that you need almost three times the dollars to buy all Bitcoins on exchanges than in January 2023!

Now some will be scared a bit perhaps But that wasn't actually my intention. This is something that happens in all bull markets. But it is also one of the reasons why the volatility at the end of the bull markets is so high. For a supercycle or so, we'll need much more dramatic decreases of the exchange supply.

Basically, economics greatly influences price changes that occur. Here our task is to find the right time to buy or sell it. It seems easy, but it has classic challenges, where greed and panic are a threat that must be overcome within us, which of course we must have knowledge so that we can analyze and draw the work area, so that there is a target that can be taken advantage of.

“Continue your DCA” This is my favorite tip, yes this is the best strategy to follow at the moment and the best investment advice.

Real long-term investors know well the value of this advice and they do not care about all these temporary rises and falls, unlike speculators who burn their nerves in front of screens watching the decline and rise of indicators.

I am confident that the big rise is coming and I am completely reassured that we will achieve an unprecedented historical ATH, so I will not waste my time monitoring indicators.

I'm still accumulating and I think the price will go up for the rest of the year, but that's just looking at the Bitcoin available on the exchanges.... I remember the previous cycle the same thing happened, everyone expecting a higher price rise because of the supposed shock and the price started to go down and we entered a bear market. So I don't trust that metric very much.