Topic: Bitcoin Technical Analysis - page 3. (Read 7431 times)

Confirmation today on MACD, Stochiastics about to cross over, and RSI is about the right place for a good rally. Bitcoin has conquered the 50 moving average! But this is only one day battle.

My only concern is that people may start to take profits here. Since I started the post at $358, one could have gain anywhere from 6% to 8%.

But Bitcoin is due for a rally. Specially with all the global uncertainty.

Looking really good here at $380...Half a day to go

i say down

Watching a pretty cool battle fought right now to conquer a position above the 100 moving day average!

This is No Man's Land right now

Go Bitcoin!

Wow you are really clueless...

But glad you are skeptical. We all need to be.

Good thing that I am trying to prove a point with actual data and charts... not just whatever comes out of my ass based on mood of the day like many other here.

Well, I do not buy that. Millions of people use the same tools, but other millions of people bet against. So yes, I am very sceptical here. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Farol_Bar_problem

And even if was true what you said about TA, which I doubt, it does not happen on nonliquid market like BTC, where just few bitcoins traded move the line significantly and TA gurus did not reach it (yet).

if technical analysis could tell us the future then everyone with a half brain would be rich.

In Bitcoin as in with Stocks and Market, TA helps us understand the trends based on actual historical data. Believe me, I make money on the stock market this way and so does a lot of people. So please don't discredit the work.

But you are absolutely right. Although what you call for are events that have nothing to do with the organic growth of Bitcoin.

Stocks have those too. Look at Sand Disk stock after Earning Report in July, Kors in July too... The stocks dropped like shit after earnings releases. Those are events that cannot be predicted (unless you are an insider or have gain to insider data.)

But every time TA tells you when to go in, and when o sell. Why? Because everyone uses about the same tools. So a lie multiplied by millions becomes the truth.

Thanks for the comments as it helps the discussion. I will be updating.

Thx for the effort for forum with all the pictures.

But I do not think this analysis will overweight fundamentals like flooding of market with seized of BTC's or Paypal going for BTC etc... One of those events can be a trigger for something crazy in both ways. Just my 2 cents.

An update:

The Key price to watch this week is $369. And a +/- 3% range from that price.

MACD weekly confirmed an up trend. Stochastic supports that movement and RSI is heading slowly into a more healthy area above over sold conditions.

With a decent volume Bitcoin can see a good rally here for investors. I would buy right here if you were planning on buying anyways. If you are in the need of cash and needs to sell, I would just give it a week for a good price point.

ON a long term view, Bitcoin can still rally if it stays above the lower blue line, and should rally if it goes above the green line.

There is a nice trend in the last few days that has cerated a line of support (RED line below).

This may signal the up trend that I described above. My guess is that the chances of heading to $440 are bigger than falling.

Again, we still need MACD confirmation on the weekly.

Thanks POSSUM577!

1) I personally think that is it both... A fiat type and a Gold type... Gold, Just because we assign value to bitcoin based on demand, rarity, difficulty to create or extract. And Fiat because it is a means of payment backed by the miners...

But Bitcoin is also a system: Bitcoin itself is the method of paying or sending money to someone, bitcoin is also the method of using that money sent to buy things... and Bitcoin stores value and one can say it is an investment.

One interesting note is that Bitcoin Peaked when it touched Gold price. 1oz of Gold was worth 1BTC.. A huge accomplishment by the Bitcoin community.... I think hat is when people thought Bitcoin is not worth more than an ounce of gold.. and they woke up from this frenzy and said, enough.. I'm selling.. And that created a snow ball effect.

2) For Bitcoin to be an investment... it needs to appreciate in value.. and we know Volume (coins purchased, traded, stored, etc.) is what will make that happen. In order to have volume, we need to solve the issues you described above. The need for this redundant steps to get Bitcoin.


I personally see it as an investment, I don't go out purchasing stuff with Bitcoin, I have had but not anymore. I am very long on Bitcoin. I will start using it to purchase when we touch $1000 again. But once we hit that target who knows... we may see higher prices.

Our generation is smart. Mobile payments are coming. They will be how we do business. Younger generations, the High school, elementary school and KG kids will grow knowing mobile payments. There will be no magical wave of a phone or scan of a QR code to get money. For them this would be just the norm. And Bitcoin will be one more way of paying or sending money. They will understand this no problem.

As Bitcoin grabs the attention of millions more.. then the coins will have to spread. Just four years ago you heard of guys mining 1000 Bitcoins in a week. And holding thousands of coins. Now it is rare when you find someone with 10 coins. Most will carry 1 or a faction. This ratio will keep going. People will only have 100 Satoshis or less. So us with full coins will be powerful.

Bitcoin can be divided 10^−8... and every little Satoshi is as important as the whole coin. Every little one can be used as a proof of something...We just need to give it the value to that proof.

Thanks for the offer. Let me think about it. I don't want to impose anything on you and wouldn't want to have you spend money on hosting and web design. I appreciate the offer. If you think there is something of value that we can do, then I am in.

This is the best BTC technical analysis I've seen on this forum site, well done!

A few questions:

1) Wouldn't it be best to compare BTC to fiat (rather than gold) due to it's use as currency in addition to an investment?

2) Do you think long term use of BTC will trend toward investment rather than medium of exchange given the barriers of entry for some new user of BTC? E.g., a new user has to exchange fiat for BTC and the use it for goods and services, which is a pain and convoluted especially when a new user may have trouble understanding the purpose or benefit of using BTC in the first place.

Perhaps BTC will become more of an investment, which would be quite cool.

If you need help publishing your analysis on a weekly basis I can help arrange the right web design and hosting, PM me.

technical analysis... Market would be too complicated.. The chart price, volume is form Bitstamp.



Good news is Bitcoin is still range bound. It will be a very interesting December.

0.764 holding it nice.

Bearish SAR points are been wasted here as the coin goes up in price. This may signal a bullish sentiment.

it's technical analysis or market analysis.?

Thanks cyberpinoy

I agree with pretty much everything you said about comparing crypto to fiat. There's really no country thats currently dependent on Bitcoin to survive, so there is no demand, and there is no need for it for economical growth for any country or entity. So to invest on it or trade it is pretty much up as a guess.

However I do think Bitcoin offers a solution to a world problem.

But let's set that aside.

The reason I am applying TA as would do a day trader or market investor is because Bitcoin has traded following these patterns. I agree Crypto markets re nothing like forex markets. But I know there are thousands of peoples trading bitcoin. Possibly ten's or hundreds who knows. And these are Traders, real ones. And these guys are not glued to theirs screens all the time. They trade with algorithms and software. And these follow market like patterns, sell alerts, buy alerts. And this is why I mentioned I think Bitcoin is and may get more predictable, until it is not of course.

A lie that everyone repeats and holds becomes the truth. A pattern that everyone uses becomes a trend, and viceversa.

Thanks again for your comments. And please feel free to add as I would really benefit from tips and help from a knowledgeable person like yourself.

BTW, Bitcoin price at time of posting was $380 with a top at $394 Bitstamp. I mentioned Bitcoin was heading towards $400, I was shy $6 USD. But the chart still shows and up trend so we may break that.

As a retired Forex trader who specialized in commodities you must first realize there is no possible technical or fundamental analysis that can be done in the crypto world right now. An analysis in Forex is completed by data that is represented by a factual demand re-occurring every year or month at the same time in addition to news events that trigger a rush of buys or sells in a specific market. Every year at the same time something happens in a fiat currency that moves its price, also every month at the same time something happens where a demand is created for a fiat currency by another country that enables the ability to create good standing analysis of a fiat currency. At the present moment there is no true demand for Bitcoin or any cryupto curtrency, there is no re-occurring events that would lead anyone to make a good analysis that would be a tool used in trading the currency. No one needs to trade their cash for Bitcoins because they have to buy something from someone or another country that would lead to the demand for the coins. Crypto markets are nothing like Forex markets. In Crypto its just a guessing game and a little luck to get in on a deal at the right time. Its nothing like the Forex market where an educated  and informed trade can be attempted from news and past history market movements.

However your setup was very professionally put together.

Interesting, do you have any links to look at these volumes?

These are the kind of news that can bring the coin lower.

BTW, BTC heading to $400 here in a day or two. Will update as needed.

current inventory of bitocin market is increasing due to the massive selloff in the Chinese nation, so the possibilities for bitcoin exchange prices in the world market will increasingly fluctuating, hopefully it is fleeting ... 

Tell that to all the traders.

In fact, I think that bitcoin can be more predictable than stocks.

TA simply doesn't work on bitcoin. Trend trading might work for a while.