Thank you all for the replies to my post. I am rather new here, so I probably have mis understood some things. I come from a background in finance, and so am probably lacking some of the technical knowledge of Bitcoin. But I have read a bit on the idea, and find it very interesting. I hope that I may be able to bring some perspective from that industry to the community.
OK - let me respond to your posts!
It will be in the economic interest for some banks to adopt bitcoin as just another currency they can act as an intermediary on (not enough people trust bitcoin to roll-their-own right now but if an early adopter trusted/regulated bank was offering bitcoin-based products they would be wildly successful for reasons too numerous to mention here) .... after the first one does it, it is all gravy from there on.
My thinking is that it will be in the collective interest of all banks not to support Bitcoin. Even if some perhaps smaller banks would gain more from FX, the big players will act politically to seal them off from the global banking system if they make serious moves to adopt Bitcoins as part of their business models.
And it doesn't really have to be an actual bank to start the trend. If Wal-mart starts accepting Bitcoins, even just for their site-to-store purchases, then every one of their compeitors is going to have to follow suit quickly. If Target does it first, Wal-mart might be able to resist for a while longer. But once any major retailer such as these try it, resistance from the banking industry would be counter productive for their continued existance.
Governments are very strict on regulation of the financial services industry. My thoughts are that they would have a problem with a retailer accepting bank deposits. Some key unanswered questions: Why would Walmart accept Bitcoins if none of their consumers use them? And why would consumers use them if they don't have a bank which they can use to obtain them? And how is Walmart going to convert the BTCs they receive into hard currency without mainstream banks?
This is a peer to peer currency, is it too disruptive to think of a world without banks ?
I am sure anything is possible. We only have to see what has happened in the last few years with the credit crunch, Lehman etc.
However, my thinking is that there has to be a logical route for it to happen.
Today nature of banks migrated more to a services model : payrroll accounts, atm's, electronic banking.
All of that can be covered easily with btc, peer to peer lending included.
This would rely on widespread adoption of Bitcoin
You'll just be able to go to the bitcoin ATM on the corner, put in cash, and get bitcoins. Or, meet your local dealer f2f and pay cash.
I am not saying that you will not be able to meet a local dealer and exchange. But for widespread adoption, you need a mainstream dealer.
Keep in mind that there is no lender of last resort for Bitcoins. If a Bitcoin bank practices fractional reserve banking, and there is a run on that bank, they will have to either borrow reserves from their peers, or go out of business. There can be no federal reserve to create more coins to cover their liabilities. I think any potential banks supporting Bitcoins will be acutely aware of this fact.
Bitcoin has some real advantages over existing currencies. I seems in essence to be a better business model for a currency. But there are many 'better business models' that never became reality because of politics.
Governments power to tax and control your lives rests upon their iron grip on money and banking. Their squeals about "criminals" using this system divert your attention from the fact that tax resisters are also "criminals" in their mind. Therefore this is a great idea.
Yes I can't help thinking this is true as well. Governments rely on control of the banking system for their income, which allows them to exercise control over society. Whilst governments would probably be able to tax in Bitcoin, I think that the negatives for government combined with pressure from the banking system would over-ride any positive arguements for Bitcoin's adoption.
Please let me know your thoughts on the above. It is probable that I am being too negative. I await your comments!