I'm not saying there's no chance for it, of course there is but just like others speculation, it's not guaranteed that it could happen. That is just a theory formed based on their observation, analysis, etc. Anyone can do it and have their own theory. Even I, thought the price are also heading it's way to less than $6k since the $7k resistance has been broke and goes down but the price recovered and back at $7k again. That says it all, no one can predict accurately because of market volatility. It's up to you if you are going to believe other words or believe yourself first.
You're completely right, and Tone is also saying it's not guaranteed and that of course $6,500 could be the low. You'll hear him say "It's possible" repeatedly in his videos, just like when we were at $7,800. In the video, and many at least others, he's speculating that the highest probability scenario is for the price to go to the $5K area. I have theories ranging from
anywhere between $2,500 and $6,500, but most longer-term signs for me point to $4K-$5K. Which I find it hard to believe personally, but that's at least what analysis as shown me.
That aside, I'm more interested in time based analysis surrounding the halving, than price based right now. I think it will become increasingly relevant in the coming months.
so can you share your analysis in terms of halving?
I don't have any specific analysis for the halving, price wise at least*. Predominantly because the event only happened twice, and personally I wait for a third confirmation for a pattern as I follow my own strict statistical theory of: 1 is an anomaly, 2 is coincidence and 3 is a pattern. Especially since the 12 months leading upto the third halving has been very different price action than what we saw the first and second time. Hence I don't have specific analysis
published re halving, even if I do have related
bull(ish) theories of accumulation leading upto the event. That said, I'm also a hypocrite and believe the long-term accumulation zone is
between the 2 & 4 Year MAs, although this has only happened twice, so go figure
Halving analysis aside, nearly all of my long-term analysis points to the low arriving before May 2020, between $2,500 and $6,500. I think the best way to analysis the halving is how a bottom could be formed around it, leading up to it, or because of it - with time-based analysis - as opposed to price-based. This I haven't done yet but intend to.
*On a personal note, my havling strategy is dollar cost averaging 6-month leading into the halving (Nov 14th 2019 - May 14th 2020), with the intent of continuing for 6-month following the halving (May 14th - Nov 14th 2020), as long as the price isn't capitulating, otherwise I'd be expecting $2,500 (that I give a 2% chance of happening for reference sake). This is in addition (and separate) to my price-based averaging between $4,500 and $6,500, meaning that I'm aggressively accumulating right now, as both time and price targets have been met.