Bitcoin Touched the Bottom RSI three times

tbct_mt2

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Quote from: GreatArkansas on January 23, 2022, 07:23:03 PM

The difficult part is here, in March 2020. Look what happened, Bitcoin broke down below on that trendline, it could happen again? We will not know.
But if we will use this basis, it is more positive to happen, only 2/3 happened since 2018, because last March 2020, it broke down, the other 2 bounced back. So, another good basis for buying this dip.

Funding rate supports to buy the dip too. See some charts from Clemente.

Even if Bitcoin break down that is bad but if history repeats, it will recover and move up above the trend line later. Buying dip means taking a good opportunity with risk acceptance as well. If you accept risk in a dip, you can buy it. Especially, if you see risk is smaller than opportunity.

rijaljun

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This is true and I think it's really a good opportunity to buy Bitcoins but I believe that not all the times it happens so it is better to consider other data or signals such as the strong support and see if it would break or not I was planning to wait for a confirmation first rather than jumping it too quickly because it happen before it's alright with me if I bought late rather than jumping on the market without any confirmation.

Mpamaegbu

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Quote from: GreatArkansas on January 23, 2022, 07:23:03 PM

The difficult part is here, in March 2020. Look what happened, Bitcoin broke down below on that trendline, it could happen again? We will not know.
But if we will use this basis, it is more positive to happen, only 2/3 happened since 2018, because last March 2020, it broke down, the other 2 bounced back. So, another good basis for buying this dip.

We should all factor in two things here. The first one being that nothing is certain in a speculative market and that uncertainty provides us with two choices of either up or down, of either profit or loss, of either bear or bull. The second being that the chart OP presented was based on a lagging indicator on a weekly TF. It's possible for price to dip further and not reverse immediately once RSI touched bottom. We've seen that happen countless times but that doesn't mean it won't reverse. In trading, only the patient and disciplined succeed more. We've to be patient, going by that graph, to wait the weekly TF out (which could still be selling on the 4hrs & Daily TFs). Bitcoin dipped to $32,917 yesterday, although from what I'm looking at, there's a strong Support at $30,700. I can't say if it will get down there to garner strength for upward movement or not. If it does, that will look like the observation you made with the March 2020 date.

palle11

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Quote from: adaseb on January 25, 2022, 12:15:46 AM

This week has a lot of news like FOMC and major stock earnings which are all supposed to be a miss like Netflix last week. So if Microsoft has horrible earnings and tanks like 10% then Bitcoin will most likely follow.

IMO I think there won't be a relationship between Microsoft or its share and the price of bitcoin. Bitcoin price will trade independent of whatever other assets because they are not contributing to either blockchain or whether they are digital currency. There may appear a rise in price like yesterday bitcoin got some gains and that independent of Microsoft. The demand and supply are the more active factor interacting with the price.

adaseb

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I zoomed in and it doesn’t look like it touched. It’ll touch maybe if the sell off keeps going on this week and we head into the $25-30K then I see a potential bottom somewhere there however at $34k I think we are just getting a dead cat bounce and nothing more.

This week has a lot of news like FOMC and major stock earnings which are all supposed to be a miss like Netflix last week. So if Microsoft has horrible earnings and tanks like 10% then Bitcoin will most likely follow.

kawetsriyanto

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Quote from: crzy on January 23, 2022, 05:56:09 PM

That means we already hit the bottom for this bear market?.

No one knows. Even we don't know if we are already in the bear market or not. Many people think that what's happening in crypto market is a normal correction. So, a real bear market may not start to happen now, but it must come someday in the future. Personally, I assume we are not in the real bear market yet.

Quote from: crzy on January 23, 2022, 05:56:09 PM

Looks like the price will start to recover again if the chart is correct again this time

It is only a chart history prediction. Doesn't guarantee to happen as the prediction. You must know that bad/good news can ruin the prediction easily. Honestly, I only consider it as a motivation and a possibility of another bullish trend.

Quote from: crzy on January 23, 2022, 05:56:09 PM

Though there are still possible that we go below that RSI level or even below $30k

Indeed. Always believe in your own prediction. That chart is only a prediction, can't determine where Bitcoin price to go whether to rise up or go down.

GreatArkansas

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Quote from: BTC_Mouse on January 23, 2022, 01:06:17 AM

In the past 3+ years bitcoin touched the bottom RSI three times (and these were the BEST buying opportunities in history)
https://i.imgur.com/MuRufQZ.jpg

The difficult part is here, in March 2020. Look what happened, Bitcoin broke down below on that trendline, it could happen again? We will not know.
But if we will use this basis, it is more positive to happen, only 2/3 happened since 2018, because last March 2020, it broke down, the other 2 bounced back. So, another good basis for buying this dip.

crzy

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That means we already hit the bottom for this bear market? Looks like the price will start to recover again if the chart is correct again this time. Maybe this is the reason why we saw a pump today and hoping that it will continue to rise again slowly but surely. Though there are still possible that we go below that RSI level or even below $30k, let’s not just overthink for that scenario.

Sterbens

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A very helpful display, so I don't think the current spread of fear is too threatening if it's already touched the RSI for the third time and posted an entry isn't a bad decision either. In terms of movement, Bitcoin is still above $30K. I am very optimistic that this will be our momentum to take it with a big discount. Instead of turning it into a creeping fear just because of the crazy emotions of mainstream news.

crwth

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It's a great comparison for sure because of the recent events from BTC it does make sense to buy more. I mean if that's the pattern that we are having, then it's great to really follow through with it. Did you buy BTC recently, OP?

el kaka22

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It is not a shock that after a huge increase we end up with a huge crash which in return results with a huge increase. It is just a cycle, markets always do this, it is not like we are going to just keep crashing, is there anyone who thinks we will have another 50%+ drop? I mean we are not going to end up with like 15k or something, we are going to end up with 70k+, that is too obvious.

The only problem right now is how long it will take and not whether it will happen or not. I am going to just keep on buying more and more each month and I know that it will end up with absolutely no problem at all. It is going to just be something quite easy, just hold a few months and I will 2x easily.

teosanru

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Quote from: BTC_Mouse on January 23, 2022, 01:06:17 AM

In the past 3+ years bitcoin touched the bottom RSI three times (and these were the BEST buying opportunities in history)

Excellent analysis, but my question is whether RSI supports are good enough pivots to take entries? Because as far as I feel it's pretty easy for a RSI support to break immediately the price drops even a little bit here and there. Obviously buying btc in oversold region is always an intelligent choice but I would still recommend just a dollar cost averaging at this point. Because last 3 Years have been more like an accumulation phase for btc. In the bearish phase btc has gone even lower after breaking RSI.

Oilacris

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Quote from: bittraffic on January 23, 2022, 12:01:50 PM

It doesn't look like the default RSI and you are using the Bitmex too in the 1week time frame. Its look is very different when you use the default RSI and binance chart because it certainly has not touched which the last time it did was in Dec 2018.

I can see though that we are very close to reaching the bottom, I think we are going to have to see the low volatility yet with very short candles swinging sideways before going up and until we don't see this on the chart, it's likely to keep going down and then we'll have to look at the monthly chart bottoms.

Depending on the timeframe and thats why its really hard to find up some biases when you are just sticking out on one timeframe specially in op been showing 1W.When it comes to trend switching or

make out some u-turns then i would prefer on not to use 1W TF. but well we do have our own indicators and RSI would be the most common.If you do base up into those buying opportunities
then it couldnt really be denied that those times are the best since you could have made out some profits if you do sell into those green candles.

Thats why i dont trust up much when it comes to indicators because it could really fucked you up.

bittraffic

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It doesn't look like the default RSI and you are using the Bitmex too in the 1week time frame. Its look is very different when you use the default RSI and binance chart because it certainly has not touched which the last time it did was in Dec 2018.

I can see though that we are very close to reaching the bottom, I think we are going to have to see the low volatility yet with very short candles swinging sideways before going up and until we don't see this on the chart, it's likely to keep going down and then we'll have to look at the monthly chart bottoms.

Tytanowy Janusz

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Quote from: BTC_Mouse on January 23, 2022, 01:06:17 AM

In the past 3+ years bitcoin touched the bottom RSI three times (and these were the BEST buying opportunities in history)

Two times to be exact (now its third time, but not yet achived based on your chart). So we are talking about N=1 (N-number of pattern repetitions) which is not that much to be honest.

But I agree that price is very oversold. Panic and blood is all around the place. The only think that boders me is the weakness we saw in the last week in global markets and how bad Friday was looking caused mostly by
the tightening of the monetary policy of central banks. I think we will not see any even smallest bullish action on BTC before US500 showing that its not so bad (monday market performance)

palle11

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The challenge for me is that of the indicator . To believe that RSI is reliable is the doubt. RSI is an indicator that goes after the market incident has happened and so making chart or graph based on only that is really not what I can believe. I do know that even if we still seeing more lows, we are not going further far down on it. The price is around $34k and that is a huge bear already from $64k. We can expect a change though.

tbct_mt2

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It is good signal but it does not indicate that Bitcoin has already touched its bottom. Bottom can be a little bit deeper but we are coming closely to bottom range which is good to enter.

We never can predict or identify bottom price 100% correctly. So let's feel happy if we have money and have chance to enter around bottom range. It is better to buy Bitcoin around $35k than around $50k or $60k, isn't it? Furthermore, if you have done research about Bitcoin, its total supply, circulation supply and future supply, you will see $35k is very cheap price in next 10 or 20 years.

If you believe in and have plans to invest in Bitcoin in more than 10 or 20 years, $35k is perfect price to join. Price can fall more but why do you have to worry about that if you invest with your money and will maintain your investment in 1 or 2 decades?

so98nn

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Love to see these graphs. Makes me think we have complete blue print of bitcoin and it’s behaviour for the years to come. The only thing that pulls me back from buying more is my confidence, fear, and low on cash status. Roll Eyes

I’m definitely jumping into bitcoin this time or at least gonna take advantage of other coins which are at bumper offers right now.

Also worth noting that we are moving towards “next” halving in 2024 and thus it’s gonna be crucial decision today to buy and hodl. With this rate I believe that it’s win win situation to grab profits.

ethereumhunter

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The question is, do you use that moment to buy many bitcoin? If yes, I guess you are making a profit in the last ATH and now you can buy bitcoin at the dip. But if you do not buy bitcoin, you should buy it for some and wait for the next dips if that will happen. Otherwise, you can just draw and see where the market will move. From that image, I think the price can reach lower than that as the price experienced reaching $34k before. But we will see if the price will bounce to the high price or it will still go down in the next week.

Ararbermas

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So below moving average is the buy opportunity? I think its good to see where to buy using small time frame as well because its quite skeptical to rely especially with that big red candle that appears wherein seems a continuations of the down trend. And you're using week time frame. Perhaps it will become a massive loss if however your prediction will not happen.. Just saying.

Topic: Bitcoin Touched the Bottom RSI three times (Read 145 times)