Essentially you're saying that micro transactions should be on the sidechain(s) only correct? If this is the case then I have to agree.
Correct.
However, I do not think that a 1MB limit will be enough even for only bigger transactions in the future. Although this really depends on the adoption of Bitcoin in the coming years.
20 MB blocks (4 or 8 is okay) are way too much,
This addresses the 'problem' in only a minor way. A small integer multiple. A system of sidechains holds the promise to address the bloat problem by orders of magnitude.
I'll agree that 1MB may eventually be to tight for even reasonable settlement activity in support of an efficient sidechains ecosystem, but that is a ways out. If/when this proves to be the case and it is VERY clear that native Bitcoin is unencumbered and unthreatened by attacks such as the blacklisting/fungibility attacks I mentioned, I'll be quite in favor of it. I suspect that many others will be as well and 'consensus' will not be all that difficult to achieve.
however it looks like XT will be rolling out in the coming week(s).
Looks to me like it will be rolling out into it's doom as it should. The main reason to roll it out would be to create a period of of instability and fear which would make people feel that Bitcoin is not a viable option for wealth protection. I'll expect it to be scheduled (or re-scheduled) for economic problems in fiat-land.
As I've mentioned in another post, increasing the block size for any other reason(s) than buying time for side chains or other technology would be a mistake. If Bitcoin was only processing the amount of transactions that Visa does during peak times (45 000 tps), we would need 400 Petabytes per year. In other words 400 million Gigabytes. The blockchain even needs to be pruned as it is now (~40GB) !
As long as a new REAL full node can be brought to life with a laptop HDD or thumb drive, and the data load of the Bitcoin network can be steganographically transmitted Bitcoin will be very difficult to kill (and thus the value within the Bitcoin blockchain will remain solid.) I believe that the most viable attacks will be on these two aspects. If I were charged with killing the system I would do so by bloating it to expose various weaknesses in it's shell.
I personally would expect and be comfortable with losing whatever value I entrusted to a sidechain under an attack scenario. That is why I am fairly ambivalent to risks on those.