Just some few days many people have lost over 20% of their money. They're going to do so again. We hope the price of BTC stabilizes one day and then we may get a god representation out there.it is only the beginning of a larger correction and not the end.
we are still in a bearish market and the discount rate could very well rise again. As such we are approaching with caution.
Topic: BITCOIN UPDATE AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - page 2. (Read 259 times)
🔪💊If It Bleeds, We Can Kill It 🔪💊
The famous words of Arnie, applicable to Predator but not blockchain technology, although today could have us convinced otherwise. The markets took a dive, especially altcoins. Some of the heaviest affected were NEO, ETH, ADA, IOTA and TRX. The BTC market cap was stomped on too but less severely. There is a lack of faith in the current prospects of the altcoin market, money has moved into BTC and then some money has moved from BTC into fiat.
Typical behaviour of the cryptocurrency market, and as the days go by we seem to be mirroring the great crypto depression that began in 2014 and ended in 2017, you have to ask yourself, can you hang on that long? If you have answered yes, then good for you, if you have answered no, then good thing you are a CIM reader as our market shorts earn us returns during times like these.
So will this be the death of crypto? Hell no, the markets bleed but the decentralised nature of blockchain makes it immortal. This brings us onto an interesting topic that has garnered a lot of press time lately – centralised vs. decentralised exchanges.
All the pundits have come out of the wood work to give us their two cents about the direction of cryptocurrency exchanges.
Creator of Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin had this to say: “I definitely personally hope centralized exchanges burn in hell as much as possible. In practice, particularly on the fiat to crypto side, it is very difficult to decentralize because you ultimately are interfacing with the fiat world, and the fiat world is one that only has basically centralized gateways…There are valuable services being provided there that are very hard to decentralize.”
Other commentators such as John Mcafee have also predicted that decentralised exchanges will replace their centralised predecessors. The decentralised essence of DEX’s exchanges is what has immortalised blockchain technology, so it is safe to assume the new method of exchange will have longevity.
Founder of Binance, CZ has thrown his hat in the ring, announcing the launch of a Binance DEX earlier this year. A true crypto visionary, CZ has created the most seamless centralised trading experience in crypto markets today; he has now branched out, creating Binance Chain – the Binance DEX. When asked if he thinks the Binance Chain will replace Binance as we know it, he said that although he knows DEX’s will be the future of cryptocurrency exchanges, there will be a coexistence of Binance and Binance Chain for the medium-term foreseeable future.
Earlier this week CZ demoed the new Binance Chain DEX, 2 months ahead of schedule. DEX technology is in its infancy, plagued with scaling issues. Binance has the most efficient matching engine out of any cryptocurrency exchange out there and if this performance can be replicated on Binance Chain it will be an absolute game changer.
The advantages of a decentralised exchange experience are the advantages of blockchain technology at its core – faster, cheaper and safer than the centralised alternatives. The markets are bleeding now but the fundamentals are still progressing. We are in this game to make money so right now our strategy is to short any sign of strength and enter the occasional long when the conditions are right. However this does not detract from our long-term bullish expectations from these markets. We are disciplined patient traders out to capitalise on the poor decisions of those on the other sides of our trades.
The famous words of Arnie, applicable to Predator but not blockchain technology, although today could have us convinced otherwise. The markets took a dive, especially altcoins. Some of the heaviest affected were NEO, ETH, ADA, IOTA and TRX. The BTC market cap was stomped on too but less severely. There is a lack of faith in the current prospects of the altcoin market, money has moved into BTC and then some money has moved from BTC into fiat.
Typical behaviour of the cryptocurrency market, and as the days go by we seem to be mirroring the great crypto depression that began in 2014 and ended in 2017, you have to ask yourself, can you hang on that long? If you have answered yes, then good for you, if you have answered no, then good thing you are a CIM reader as our market shorts earn us returns during times like these.
So will this be the death of crypto? Hell no, the markets bleed but the decentralised nature of blockchain makes it immortal. This brings us onto an interesting topic that has garnered a lot of press time lately – centralised vs. decentralised exchanges.
All the pundits have come out of the wood work to give us their two cents about the direction of cryptocurrency exchanges.
Creator of Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin had this to say: “I definitely personally hope centralized exchanges burn in hell as much as possible. In practice, particularly on the fiat to crypto side, it is very difficult to decentralize because you ultimately are interfacing with the fiat world, and the fiat world is one that only has basically centralized gateways…There are valuable services being provided there that are very hard to decentralize.”
Other commentators such as John Mcafee have also predicted that decentralised exchanges will replace their centralised predecessors. The decentralised essence of DEX’s exchanges is what has immortalised blockchain technology, so it is safe to assume the new method of exchange will have longevity.
Founder of Binance, CZ has thrown his hat in the ring, announcing the launch of a Binance DEX earlier this year. A true crypto visionary, CZ has created the most seamless centralised trading experience in crypto markets today; he has now branched out, creating Binance Chain – the Binance DEX. When asked if he thinks the Binance Chain will replace Binance as we know it, he said that although he knows DEX’s will be the future of cryptocurrency exchanges, there will be a coexistence of Binance and Binance Chain for the medium-term foreseeable future.
Earlier this week CZ demoed the new Binance Chain DEX, 2 months ahead of schedule. DEX technology is in its infancy, plagued with scaling issues. Binance has the most efficient matching engine out of any cryptocurrency exchange out there and if this performance can be replicated on Binance Chain it will be an absolute game changer.
The advantages of a decentralised exchange experience are the advantages of blockchain technology at its core – faster, cheaper and safer than the centralised alternatives. The markets are bleeding now but the fundamentals are still progressing. We are in this game to make money so right now our strategy is to short any sign of strength and enter the occasional long when the conditions are right. However this does not detract from our long-term bullish expectations from these markets. We are disciplined patient traders out to capitalise on the poor decisions of those on the other sides of our trades.
It now seems evident that we are clearly in a wave 3 down which would mean the relief rally from 5800-8470 was a corrective ABC in nature, meaning that once this 5 wave down structure is complete, it is only the beginning of a larger correction and not the end.
We want to point out that We have no intention of buying the ensuing wave 4 but only looking to short any strength, preferably in the 6.6-6.7k region.
It is no secret we have been calling for an end of bear market target at 3.2k which has been brought up a few times before.
Whether this happens or not is trivial as we are active traders, and trade what we see, which in this current climate, there are not too many bull cases to be made.
As mentioned in our last TA update, BTC bounced just shy of the 23-fib level and will as expected, continue its downward trajectory further. We’ll be keeping our eyes set on a few key levels as we make our descent - we could be in for a bit of turbulence.
As price nears $6,265, this will be a region to watch since we have historically bounced twice from here before. We are expecting price to break through without too much of a fight however and the next stop will likely be close to $6,100 - $6,000.
There may indeed be a bounce at this level as well and we will be looking closely to see how the price action unfolds. There may be some short-term counter-trend trades which present themselves but we will also be looking for shorting entries as the prevailing bear trend ensues.
Buckle up ladies and gents. Also, Caveat!
As price nears $6,265, this will be a region to watch since we have historically bounced twice from here before. We are expecting price to break through without too much of a fight however and the next stop will likely be close to $6,100 - $6,000.
There may indeed be a bounce at this level as well and we will be looking closely to see how the price action unfolds. There may be some short-term counter-trend trades which present themselves but we will also be looking for shorting entries as the prevailing bear trend ensues.
Buckle up ladies and gents. Also, Caveat!
ETF Delay
By now I’m sure a lot of you would have felt the sting of the market’s overreaction to the SEC announcement of delaying the VanEck-SolidX Bitcoin ETF decision. The ETF is backed by the Chicago Board of Exchange BZX Equities Exchange (CBOE) and has been praised by the cryptocurrency community for its efforts in attracting institutional investment into the budding blockchain industry.
The Commission explained that the Securities Exchange Act provides that it can extend the 45 days period from publication if it finds it “appropriate to designate a longer period” so it has sufficient time to consider the proposed rule change.
“Accordingly, the Commission, pursuant to Section 19(b)(2) of the Act designates September 30, 2018, as the date by which the Commission shall either approve or disapprove, or institute proceedings to determine whether to disapprove, the proposed rule change.”
This move by the SEC is a positive sign in the opinion of the CIM team as it shows that the SEC is seriously considering the ETF application. The gears of bureaucracy are grinding away, they only way they know how – slowly. The SEC could have disregarded VanEck-SolidX BTC ETF application and focused their valuable time elsewhere, but instead they chose to allot more time to this matter. Think about that before you decide to panic sell.
Prominent CNBC crypto commentator Brian Kelly said “If you’re selling today after this decision, it’s the wrong way to do crypto investing. There is more to this story than just an ETF, A little spoiler alert: On September 30th, they will likely postpone it again because the market’s not ready for it and the SEC hasn’t had all the answers to their questions yet.” One of the more lucid comments to come out of the CNBC studio.
Other Numbers
We recently reported on the decline in cryptocurrency spending noting that it had dropped over 80% in the past year. Today the DEA came out and announced a 90% drop in the usage of cryptocurrencies in illicit black market trades. This may very well just be the DEA tooting their own proverbial horn but it would certainly explain some of the decrease in crytpocurrency spending. If the numbers are assumed to be correct then there has actually been an increase in the usage of BTC and other cryptocurrencies in e-commerce.
OTC brokerage firms have said that although volumes are down in cryptocurrency order books, the OTC market is still flourishing. Some OTC desks have estimated that OTC volume makes up at least 50% of the daily cryptocurrency volume traded daily. One of the reasons traders use OTC brokers is the expediency they offer to execute a trade, paid for in the form of a seller’s discount.
A reasonable barometer on the sentiment of sellers can be the amount of discount they offer on their trades. In March of this year sellers were offering discounts in the order of 7-8%, indicating the urgency with which they needed to get rid of their BTC. At the moment the discount rate is sitting at about 2%, a stark improvement from the situation in March.
The current situation seems to be better than March however, we are still in a bearish market and the discount rate could very well rise again. As such we are approaching with caution.
In the likely situation of another ETF delay the current bear trend could linger around for a while like a bad smell. As previously stated we will be shorting strength and diversifying risk out of our portfolio by going long on BNB too. BTC
By now I’m sure a lot of you would have felt the sting of the market’s overreaction to the SEC announcement of delaying the VanEck-SolidX Bitcoin ETF decision. The ETF is backed by the Chicago Board of Exchange BZX Equities Exchange (CBOE) and has been praised by the cryptocurrency community for its efforts in attracting institutional investment into the budding blockchain industry.
The Commission explained that the Securities Exchange Act provides that it can extend the 45 days period from publication if it finds it “appropriate to designate a longer period” so it has sufficient time to consider the proposed rule change.
“Accordingly, the Commission, pursuant to Section 19(b)(2) of the Act designates September 30, 2018, as the date by which the Commission shall either approve or disapprove, or institute proceedings to determine whether to disapprove, the proposed rule change.”
This move by the SEC is a positive sign in the opinion of the CIM team as it shows that the SEC is seriously considering the ETF application. The gears of bureaucracy are grinding away, they only way they know how – slowly. The SEC could have disregarded VanEck-SolidX BTC ETF application and focused their valuable time elsewhere, but instead they chose to allot more time to this matter. Think about that before you decide to panic sell.
Prominent CNBC crypto commentator Brian Kelly said “If you’re selling today after this decision, it’s the wrong way to do crypto investing. There is more to this story than just an ETF, A little spoiler alert: On September 30th, they will likely postpone it again because the market’s not ready for it and the SEC hasn’t had all the answers to their questions yet.” One of the more lucid comments to come out of the CNBC studio.
Other Numbers
We recently reported on the decline in cryptocurrency spending noting that it had dropped over 80% in the past year. Today the DEA came out and announced a 90% drop in the usage of cryptocurrencies in illicit black market trades. This may very well just be the DEA tooting their own proverbial horn but it would certainly explain some of the decrease in crytpocurrency spending. If the numbers are assumed to be correct then there has actually been an increase in the usage of BTC and other cryptocurrencies in e-commerce.
OTC brokerage firms have said that although volumes are down in cryptocurrency order books, the OTC market is still flourishing. Some OTC desks have estimated that OTC volume makes up at least 50% of the daily cryptocurrency volume traded daily. One of the reasons traders use OTC brokers is the expediency they offer to execute a trade, paid for in the form of a seller’s discount.
A reasonable barometer on the sentiment of sellers can be the amount of discount they offer on their trades. In March of this year sellers were offering discounts in the order of 7-8%, indicating the urgency with which they needed to get rid of their BTC. At the moment the discount rate is sitting at about 2%, a stark improvement from the situation in March.
The current situation seems to be better than March however, we are still in a bearish market and the discount rate could very well rise again. As such we are approaching with caution.
In the likely situation of another ETF delay the current bear trend could linger around for a while like a bad smell. As previously stated we will be shorting strength and diversifying risk out of our portfolio by going long on BNB too. BTC
It now seems evident that we are clearly in a wave 3 down which would mean the relief rally from 5800-8470 was a corrective ABC in nature, meaning that once this 5 wave down structure is complete, it is only the beginning of a larger correction and not the end.
We want to point out that We have no intention of buying the ensuing wave 4 but only looking to short any strength, preferably in the 6.6-6.7k region.
It is no secret we have been calling for an end of bear market target at 3.2k which has been brought up a few times before.
Whether this happens or not is trivial as we are active traders, and trade what we see, which in this current climate, there are not too many bull cases to be made.
I even think the SEC hearing is causing us more harm than good. What we're experiencing now will even make them further reject again. Last time they said they weren't sure about the price and market details of BTC, and now look!! Just some few days many people have lost over 20% of their money. They're going to do so again. We hope the price of BTC stabilizes one day and then we may get a god representation out there.
The SEC’s decision to delay their ruling on a Bitcoin ETF has understandably made news headlines as cryptocurrency traders and investors alike await the verdict in anticipation.
It has been stated that this recent drop in BTC price is attributed to this decision but it is our view that it was going to happen anyway.
Back in July the $8,400 could not hold and since then, we have been in a steady decline. This is what happens in markets of all types.
As stated in my previous post, $7,129 could not hold and we are still expecting price to go lower, possibly hitting the $6,770 level, although BTC is currently flirting with $6,840 and is meeting some resistance there. It was at this price point which triggered the recent BTC bounce.
It has been stated that this recent drop in BTC price is attributed to this decision but it is our view that it was going to happen anyway.
Back in July the $8,400 could not hold and since then, we have been in a steady decline. This is what happens in markets of all types.
As stated in my previous post, $7,129 could not hold and we are still expecting price to go lower, possibly hitting the $6,770 level, although BTC is currently flirting with $6,840 and is meeting some resistance there. It was at this price point which triggered the recent BTC bounce.
All the scenarios surrounding the recent bearish run of BITCOIN are all directly and indirectly affected by the decision of the US SEC and as such, it can be said with certainty that the delay of the VanEck Bitcoin ETF caused the price of BTC to fall.
However, as some analysts explained, if the rejection of a Bitcoin ETF can have such a large impact on the valuation of the crypto market, in contrast, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF can also have a massive positive effect on the mid-term price trend of major cryptocurrencies.
Right now Bitcoin is really gaining good demand in the current srengthening and trending time and i don't think there is any other tool other than technical analysis. The ETF's news has made some short term panic here but that doesn't mean that bitcoin is going to move down, no way i am pretty much sure that according to dow theory we will see a new higher high soon which will be a all time high of this 201 year, let see where does this price goes.
BTC
The bulls put in a solid effort but it was becoming increasingly obvious after the $7,129 resistance could not be breached that we would be resuming the downtrend and returning to lower levels.
We can’t lay claim to the fact that we saw it dropping all the way down to $6,377 in one aggressive move, but we did foresee a drop coming.
With our short position opened at $6,850 now closed off at around $6,621, we’re certainly not complaining! 👍
The bulls put in a solid effort but it was becoming increasingly obvious after the $7,129 resistance could not be breached that we would be resuming the downtrend and returning to lower levels.
We can’t lay claim to the fact that we saw it dropping all the way down to $6,377 in one aggressive move, but we did foresee a drop coming.
With our short position opened at $6,850 now closed off at around $6,621, we’re certainly not complaining! 👍
The SEC’s decision to delay their ruling on a Bitcoin ETF has understandably made news headlines as cryptocurrency traders and investors alike await the verdict in anticipation.
It has been stated that this recent drop in BTC price is attributed to this decision but it is our view that it was going to happen anyway.
Back in July the $8,400 could not hold and since then, we have been in a steady decline. This is what happens in markets of all types.
As stated in my previous post, $7,129 could not hold and we are still expecting price to go lower, possibly hitting the $6,770 level, although BTC is currently flirting with $6,840 and is meeting some resistance there. It was at this price point which triggered the recent BTC bounce.
It has been stated that this recent drop in BTC price is attributed to this decision but it is our view that it was going to happen anyway.
Back in July the $8,400 could not hold and since then, we have been in a steady decline. This is what happens in markets of all types.
As stated in my previous post, $7,129 could not hold and we are still expecting price to go lower, possibly hitting the $6,770 level, although BTC is currently flirting with $6,840 and is meeting some resistance there. It was at this price point which triggered the recent BTC bounce.
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