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Topic: Bitcoin Value At The End Of 2011? - page 3. (Read 7574 times)

legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1010
July 08, 2011, 11:28:42 PM
#24
I just had a vision, clear as day.  Here's what's going to happen.  As the police state in the U.S. consolidates its control over every aspect of daily life, very soon they will impose capital controls in order to prevent people from moving money offshore. At this point, the black market for bitcoin will go thru the roof. Sites like ubitex will be discovered, ads will appear on craigslist, rendezvous points will be agreed upon and bitcoin will be one of the ways that people protect their money from confiscatory inflation.

This will be a tough, dangerous environment in which to sell, but those with smarts and courage will be rewarded.  In this scenario, bitcoin price will be high.

You talk about this as if the government crackdown on capital movement is in the future. It's already going on.

True, but not very many people need to move large amounts of value across borders.  And if bitcoin is flowing out of the country to facilitate capital flight, then goods would need to be moving out as well, in order to get bitcoins to flow back in.  Otherwise the bitcoins within the country become scarce.  Keep in mind that currencies are just placeholders for goods, somehow those goods still have to move.
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
July 08, 2011, 10:31:55 PM
#23
I just had a vision, clear as day.  Here's what's going to happen.  As the police state in the U.S. consolidates its control over every aspect of daily life, very soon they will impose capital controls in order to prevent people from moving money offshore. At this point, the black market for bitcoin will go thru the roof. Sites like ubitex will be discovered, ads will appear on craigslist, rendezvous points will be agreed upon and bitcoin will be one of the ways that people protect their money from confiscatory inflation.

This will be a tough, dangerous environment in which to sell, but those with smarts and courage will be rewarded.  In this scenario, bitcoin price will be high.

You talk about this as if the government crackdown on capital movement is in the future. It's already going on.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
July 08, 2011, 08:30:38 PM
#22
I just had a vision, clear as day.  Here's what's going to happen.  As the police state in the U.S. consolidates its control over every aspect of daily life, very soon they will impose capital controls in order to prevent people from moving money offshore. At this point, the black market for bitcoin will go thru the roof. Sites like ubitex will be discovered, ads will appear on craigslist, rendezvous points will be agreed upon and bitcoin will be one of the ways that people protect their money from confiscatory inflation.

This will be a tough, dangerous environment in which to sell, but those with smarts and courage will be rewarded.  In this scenario, bitcoin price will be high.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
July 08, 2011, 07:46:48 PM
#21
Oh my, this little project is SO vulnerable.  Bitcoin offers something really, really useful to the poor little people of the world who need to "send some money home", sort of like hawala.  (Exchangers need to be found on both ends.)  But this faction alone could greatly increase bitcoin's spread; it could take it worldwide and ubiquitous.  This kind of honest use takes bitcoin higher.

Another group is organized crime, but now we're talking a lot of money at one time.  How would these guys buy enough bitcoin and sell enough bitcoin on the other end to quickly fit within their paradigm?  I don't think bitcoin is ready for big transactions in and out of fiat currencies.  Unfortunately, organized crime may see the bitcoin community as a bunch of chumps to be taken advantage of.  They could set up an online exchange or an online wallet company (think MyBitcoin.com), earn people's trust, and then pull the plug and disappear.  In fact, patience would be rewarded such that it would pay off to stay in business, grow the business until the community trusts you, and THEN pull the plug.  This kind of crime takes bitcoin down and quickly.

Bitcoin's price is very vulnerable to crime.  Look what happened when Mt Gox got hacked.
sr. member
Activity: 454
Merit: 250
July 08, 2011, 06:50:34 PM
#20
roughly counting about 85ish % think it will be higher than it is now- that's kind of reassuring.
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
July 08, 2011, 06:39:12 PM
#19
It's clear the majority of people participating in the poll are quite bullish.

I personally voted for over $100. I would not be surprised to be slightly wrong; perhaps it will only be around $90.
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
July 08, 2011, 05:35:26 PM
#18
$20+ by the end of July. $30-$35 at end of year. With higher spikes to $45-$50 in between.


hope you're right.  wouldn't bet on it though.   i'm seeing $20  maybe september or october.  (if we're lucky )

You're a lot more optimistic than me.
hero member
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
Seal Cub Clubbing Club
July 08, 2011, 05:02:18 PM
#17
hope you're right.  wouldn't bet on it though.   i'm seeing $20  maybe september or october.  (if we're lucky )

On the bright side, that means a fairly flat difficulty rise due to natural growth, which means you'll get more mileage out of your mining hardware!
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1008
July 08, 2011, 04:14:04 PM
#16
$20+ by the end of July. $30-$35 at end of year. With higher spikes to $45-$50 in between.


hope you're right.  wouldn't bet on it though.   i'm seeing $20  maybe september or october.  (if we're lucky )
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
Side-stepping the matrix | Bit by bit
July 08, 2011, 04:07:20 PM
#15
And by the end of 2012...?

By then the Euro, if it's still in existence, will probably be in even more dire straits than it is now (never mind Greece, Portugal and Italy will be seeking bailouts and Ireland will probably have withdrawn from the Euro altogether), the US will most likely have defaulted and/or will have come up with more QE, making the $ even weaker and prices will be through the roof... unless you use bitcoin, which will probably be more on par with precious metals, which will be worth tens of thousands/oz by then (and that could just be silver).

People will be using paper money to make fires to keep warm and old men will be offering BJs on street corners for a satoshi to get a bite to eat.

 Shocked
legendary
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1006
July 08, 2011, 04:01:59 PM
#14
$20+ by the end of July. $30-$35 at end of year. With higher spikes to $45-$50 in between.
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
July 08, 2011, 03:49:52 PM
#13
I voted 16-20.  It's gonna be looooong time before we're over 20 again, I think.
legendary
Activity: 910
Merit: 1001
Revolutionizing Brokerage of Personal Data
July 08, 2011, 03:43:10 PM
#12
one bitcoin
Grin exactly!

I'm sure we'll see the day where it is no longer necessary to always think of the exchange rates because the Bitcoin economy has grown large enough so that there's hardly ever the need to exchange them for fiat currencies.

It sure won't be end of 2011 though - so my bet for this one is 36-45: two more rallies and a correction afterwards.
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1010
July 08, 2011, 03:42:24 PM
#11
Price changes are not significantly influenced by difficulty changes. However, difficulty changes are significantly influenced by price changes.

If price followed difficulty, then we could all make ourselves rich merely by agreeing to increase difficulty tomorrow by 10,000,000x. Think what the price would be!!!

Except that difficulty isn't determined by agreement.

Given the popular idea that difficulty follows price, I think that in order to estimate the BTC value at the end of the year, we must first extrapolate the difficulty at the end of the year and determine what price a Bitcoin would have to be to support it.

By definition, it's impossible to predict the effect and use that to calculate a prediction of the cause.
full member
Activity: 228
Merit: 100
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
July 08, 2011, 03:35:51 PM
#9
Real speculators arent saying shit lol.


Nope, shh we're speculating! Wink
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
July 08, 2011, 03:35:10 PM
#8
Real speculators arent saying shit lol.
legendary
Activity: 1137
Merit: 1001
July 08, 2011, 03:33:54 PM
#7
one bitcoin
hero member
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
Seal Cub Clubbing Club
July 08, 2011, 03:11:32 PM
#6
Price changes are not significantly influenced by difficulty changes. However, difficulty changes are significantly influenced by price changes.

If price followed difficulty, then we could all make ourselves rich merely by agreeing to increase difficulty tomorrow by 10,000,000x. Think what the price would be!!!

Except that difficulty isn't determined by agreement.

Given the popular idea that difficulty follows price, I think that in order to estimate the BTC value at the end of the year, we must first extrapolate the difficulty at the end of the year and determine what price a Bitcoin would have to be to support it.
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
July 08, 2011, 03:10:52 PM
#5
lows $17

highs $28
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