Bitcoin volatility - page 2. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Sayeds56

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Quote from: Symmetrick on October 04, 2023, 08:38:15 AM

Volatility in the Bitcoin market shows the lowest result in the last 10 years:

2023 turned out to be a relatively calm year; over the past 9 months there have been no strong dumps or major pumps. In general, this may indicate that Bitcoin is increasingly perceived as an asset for long-term holding, and not just another speculation for trading on the exchange. This is also evidenced by data that the number of bitcoins in illiquid wallets continues to increase. At the moment it is more than 14,500,000 BTC:

Your observation and insightful analysis of Bitcoin's historical data and in particular its decreasing volatility in past nine months, is a very interesting and positive development, that could contribute to greater Bitcoin adoption and acceptance as method of payment. This reduced volatility is a significant factor that has often hindered its acceptance as widely used payment method.

Moreover, it is worth noting that volatility in Bitcoin is an opportunity for professional traders to generate profit by skillfully mitigating risk associated with trading of this digital asset.

Aikidoka

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The volatility of Bitcoin's price this year isn't as high as in past years as the OP mentioned, and I think it will remain this way until the end of the year. I'm not sure if this is a good or bad thing for Bitcoin, but I do like this stability and I'm looking forward to the next bull market in a few years. I believe it will happen somehow after the halving in 2024.

The reason why Bitcoin isn't as volatile this year is probably due to many people engaging in long-term investments and we haven't seen as many transactions recently compared to the past years.

Yatsan

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Quote from: shivansps on October 04, 2023, 12:04:41 PM

Now from every source of information you can hear that Bitcoin will reach its maximum values in the near future in a year or two. Therefore, those people who have money can safely invest in Bitcoin for a long time and not have headaches every day in trading
People understand very well that Bitcoin will not go below 16k and therefore invest with ease

Everyone in this industry is hoping for such thing to happen on its market price however those are just assumptions and speculation and no one guarantees for such thing. Not because you have money to invest, it would already give you the idea to just invest into it. Well, having assets is a good thing to acquire but let us emphasize the idea of risk management and to simply put only an amount inside our loss tolerance to avoid frustrations and related actions. Bitcoin has a huge potential especially with price increase but things won’just happen according to our expectations of it. Holding won’t be simple as well ‘coz nothing’s assured and no one knows when will the market price be able to cross its previous ATH.

Sophokles

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Quote from: The Cryptovator on October 04, 2023, 11:35:09 AM

In my experience, it seems that Bitcoin is less volatile this year. I have been involved with Bitcoin for a couple of years. The price seems quite stable, and very rarely are we seeing high volatility. It's most probably because holders don't want to sell and there are fewer new buyers as well. That means buyers and sellers are almost the same; when there is a difference, we see a little volatility. But that isn't countable or volatile compared to other years. I will say it's not bad at all; it's more of a natural growth than a pump dump. People should realise holding Bitcoin is worthy now, and it's just not a pump-and-dump game.

The way the bitcoin market handled fud for FTX and Binance, it was a signal that the sentiment for bitcoin as a long term holding asset is strong. There was a heavy accumulation of bitcoin despite this bad news and the market quickly recovered after every major correction. I am not sure if it was the retail investor or the institutional investor who ate all of those sales walls. Some exchange like binance and coinbase increased their BTC stack in these major correction. A few days ago, there was news about a bitcoin wallet that holds around the same amount of bitcoin in satoshi's wallet. Later they found that it belongs to coinbase.

shivansps

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Now from every source of information you can hear that Bitcoin will reach its maximum values in the near future in a year or two. Therefore, those people who have money can safely invest in Bitcoin for a long time and not have headaches every day in trading
People understand very well that Bitcoin will not go below 16k and therefore invest with ease

uneng

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Quote from: Symmetrick on October 04, 2023, 08:38:15 AM

2023 turned out to be a relatively calm year; over the past 9 months there have been no strong dumps or major pumps. In general, this may indicate that Bitcoin is increasingly perceived as an asset for long-term holding, and not just another speculation for trading on the exchange. This is also evidenced by data that the number of bitcoins in illiquid wallets continues to increase.

The tendency is that Bitcoin's volatility decreases along the years, as more adopters join the market and more coins are splitted among different hands, decreasing the manipulation power whales have to drive prices in large scale upside and down. That is why it's important always the price crashes at once, new investors and minor investors acquire more coins immediately, so whales don't have the opportunity to accumulate every cheap coins on their holdings.

Z-tight

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Quote from: Venik on October 04, 2023, 10:07:48 AM

Well, more people realized that. But definitely not all of them. There are still a lot of people who want to enter the crypto world to become rich quickly, fail to do that, and abandon it forever or for a long time.

Yeah surely there are still a lot of weak hands who only want to get rich quick through buying BTC, you cannot get rid of such people in a free market like the BTC network. But if the weaker hands are fewer in number than people who actually believe in BTC and will hold it for a very long time, then volatility would surely be reduced and we'll get a certain level of stability in the price of BTC.

Quote from: Poker Player on October 04, 2023, 09:33:37 AM

I've been thinking the same thing since we didn't go over $69K in this cycle, and I don't believe any of the predictions that give outlandish results for the next cycle.

You may be right, even though i do not have a strong opinion on this yet. I think many of these predictions are 'hanging' on the approval of BTC spot etf's in the U.S., so many believe that if there is an approval, the price would skyrocket. I don't know what is going to happen, neither am i so interested in BTC spot etf's because i believe in not your keys, not your coins, but very soon i think the sec would budge and approve at least one BTC spot etf application, it could very well be that of Blackrock, then we'll see what it does to the price.

The Cryptovator

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In my experience, it seems that Bitcoin is less volatile this year. I have been involved with Bitcoin for a couple of years. The price seems quite stable, and very rarely are we seeing high volatility. It's most probably because holders don't want to sell and there are fewer new buyers as well. That means buyers and sellers are almost the same; when there is a difference, we see a little volatility. But that isn't countable or volatile compared to other years. I will say it's not bad at all; it's more of a natural growth than a pump dump. People should realise holding Bitcoin is worthy now, and it's just not a pump-and-dump game.

Ndabagi01

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Bitcoin is now seen as an asset rather than merely a money for daily transactions. As the number of bitcoin holders grows, so does the number of bitcoins in those wallets, as individuals regard the currency as more of an asset than just currency for daily needs. As a result, the volatility has not made much of a pump or a dump this year even when hit with some negative news that could dump the market.

This behaviour indicates that bitcoin will make significant gains in the approaching bull season, as no significant drops have occurred. If the market continues to rise in a bullish trend and rises by the percentage it usually does during a bull run, we will see a very high bull to signify a relatively high ATH that may double the current ATH.

salad daging

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Quote from: Nrcewker on October 04, 2023, 08:44:57 AM

Yes many people now treating Bitcoins as long term investments only. Another reason for which we aren’t seeing more trades because they know that in 2024 Bitcoins will touch new All time high price. Hence for now they are just storing the coins in the wallet and not touching it. We might see ups and downs in the price of the coin during the last of November and December, as people are will try to accumulate more Bitcoins at that time for the bull run.

Many people are looking forward to this moment because soon the halving event will occur so that is why many people hold bitcoin in non-custodial wallets more than exchanges, although there is no definite reason by showing low volatility now preferring HOLD.

For almost a year 2023 the average price is in the range of $20K to $30K and the lowest point is $16K but it doesn't last long, you can say this fluctuation is not that significant but I feel bitcoin is more in the range now.
People accumulate more it is their way to increase their portfolio while prices are still low.

bangjoe

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It is natural for this year because it is seen in terms of holders and news sentiments there is nothing that affects Bitcoin, so the crypto market is so that there is no massive disposal of bitcoin to the market because it has happened in 2022, so it can be calculated more stable for the pump movement and dump.

In the cycle also the second and third years is the time when the strengthening of the preparation of Bitcoin Halving and the new ATH, in this side it can be possible the strength of the holder charges the power that affects the level of fluctuations that do not make it extreme.

tabas

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Aside from the volatility, it also shows that we're getting higher all-time lows in every bear market. On the 2017 bull run followed by the 2018 bear market, we've got $3000. And during the 2021 bull run followed by the bear market in 2022, the all-time low by that year was $16000 and that's just close to $15000 which was like 5 times more than the 2018 ATL. Everyone is seeing the need not to sell too early and we're all being serious and learned from the past years that these cycles happening on Bitcoin are real and backing it up with accurate data makes more sense. It's a no-brainer that many have learned the effect of halving and what it does to Bitcoin both in its technical and economic aspects.

Doan9269

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Quote from: Symmetrick on October 04, 2023, 08:38:15 AM

Volatility in the Bitcoin market shows the lowest result in the last 10 years:

2023 turned out to be a relatively calm year; over the past 9 months there have been no strong dumps or major pumps. In general, this may indicate that Bitcoin is increasingly perceived as an asset for long-term holding, and not just another speculation for trading on the exchange. This is also evidenced by data that the number of bitcoins in illiquid wallets continues to increase. At the moment it is more than 14,500,000 BTC:

This will also serves as a reminder for those who have been passionate in knowing the track record of bitcoin volatility over the years, there have been both bear and bull season and the market has also been favourable for it investors who can hodl to experience a surge in the market price, people have chosen bitcoin over other cryptocurrencies because it's actions are irrevocable and trusted, when it falls, it rises again, also to others that have been creating unnecessary fear of missing out on bitcoin each time bthe market dips, this is also an explanation on why they can remain with bitcoin because of its long time consistency.

TheUltraElite

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So anyway, I applied as a merit source :)

News articles have more or less accepted bitcoin as a stable asset with mainstream acceptance and since taboo topics make more of rounds, once its non-taboo, its normalized, its just what is normal. More big names accepting crypto or news coming out that they are involved in investing in them, the more this stability consolidates.

However dont take this as an indication of the future trend. We still have more than two months before the year ending. Sudden changes in crypto are not uncommon even though the yearly volatility usually remains under 15%.

Overall, bitcoin is a good asset for long term investment, there is not doubt in this statement.

Franctoshi

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I would add that this is evidence that there is an increased knowledge about Bitcoin basically, more people have gotten to understand it over the past years as a long-term investment asset class rather than a perceived get-rich-quick scheme coin the majority of people initially thought Bitcoin was.

Secondly, When we have a situation like this, this could suggest or is a strong sign that we may start seeing crazy moves or volatility in the months ahead, and I'm even becoming more bullish about Bitcoin right now as it could be an indication that we are fast approaching the end of the accumulation phase of Bitcoin.

Venik

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Quote from: Kara3 on October 04, 2023, 09:56:19 AM

I think Bitcoin have gain more popularity to the level that people no longer go into panic selling when any negative news about Bitcoin came up, people mostly sees it as a long time investment, that's why it's displaying less volatility.
Investors have more faith now in Bitcoin because it always fight back in value no matter how the price depreciate.

Well, more people realized that. But definitely not all of them. There are still a lot of people who want to enter the crypto world to become rich quickly, fail to do that, and abandon it forever or for a long time.

Sim_card

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I believe that people are keeping their bitcoin in their noncustodial wallet waiting for the halving and this has made so many investors to move their coins from exchanges, so that they can be in full control of their investment as they are preparing for the halving. Also, the trading volume has drop with 88.39% over the previous years. The volatility is low because as bitcoin keep on gaining recognition the believe and trust in bitcoin increases. Investors has also understood that long term hodling is the best way to invest in bitcoin.

Kara3

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I think Bitcoin have gain more popularity to the level that people no longer go into panic selling when any negative news about Bitcoin came up, people mostly sees it as a long time investment, that's why it's displaying less volatility.
Investors have more faith now in Bitcoin because it always fight back in value no matter how the price depreciate.

Hamza2424

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Quote from: Majestic-milf on October 04, 2023, 09:15:14 AM

Yeah, it's a good thing to believe that Bitcoin is now less volatile as this will increase investor confidence and also, they'd begin seeing it as a legitimate asset class because prior to now, fluctuations typically deter them from including it in their portfolio. However, a sustained period of low volatility could prove challenging for Bitcoin as the probability of a significant movement will be less likely.

Really? If it's going to lose the whole of its volatility, how can a long-term efficient accumulation be processed, how this market will grow in a cyclical order? How we will feel this excitement while spending time with BTC? I don't give a shit to those investors who are afraid of temporary pumps and dumps. I think more mature investors are gonna step into the market even with its volatility. I think this volatility is the beauty of the market.

Anyway, It's really considerable that Bitcoin is not coming up with big moves but does that matter if Bitcoin hasn't shown up with such patterns for a small interval? Hmm as the market is growing in mature hands it really affecting the volatility.

For the latest as you have a look here on the heat map, I think it would be interesting to see how the market behaves in this scenario. Image Source data analysis of a senior crypto influencer Bit India

Poker Player

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As an asset matures and the price and market cap increase, volatility decreases. The downside of this is that the positive returns going forward are also reduced. Bitcoin is going to be useful to get rich slow, not to hit the jackpot, as in the first cycles. I've been thinking the same thing since we didn't go over $69K in this cycle, and I don't believe any of the predictions that give outlandish results for the next cycle.

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