Topic: Bitcoin vs election? (Read 324 times)

I remember in 2020 we were speculating about the same thing in the Spanish subforum about the US election. It was a bullish time, and BTC was beginning to prepare to attack the new ATH, at prices between 10 and 15k.

The election day there was some significant volatility. First it looked like the market was going down because of Biden's advantage (meaning that the Bitcoin traders could have favoured Trump), but then the price recovered (see my post back then). In the end my conclusion was that what the market probably wanted was certainty, not necessarily the victory of one of both candidates. The market would have gone down if the result was very close, above all because of Trump's threats to not accept the result, but Biden had a stable (while not large) advantage in most swing states.

The next US elections could lead to a similar pattern. If there is a clear victory of one of both candidates without "strange things" happening (like Trump winning with extreme, violent populism, e.g. threatening to weaken democratic institutions) then this could be positive for the Bitcoin price. Instead if there's a toss-up, mainly in the case of a small Biden advantage Trump isn't accepting, the price could dip.

In general however I think other developments will be more important. While I believe the US is an important market (especially due to the recent ETF developments), and US decisions and events (SEC etc.) see a high grade of coverage in the crypto media business, US citizens are only a relatively small minority of Bitcoin owners. Of course there can be a chain reaction (election win for one side favoured by markets -> stock market bubble -> Bitcoin bubble) but in general other adoption-related events will be more important.

Elections (specially US ones) should not matter to general public this much, I understand that in the USA people are into politics way too much, and the main reason I believe is that you guys turned that into some sort of sport, like how we watch football and enjoy as a fan, you guys are making it like a sport and hooligan your way around your candidate and have fun that way, even have fans fighting fans at times, and fans rioting at times as well lol.

What most of you do not realize is that there are two candidates this time around, same guys, we have seen Trump be the president before, for four years, and we have seen Biden rule the nation now too, and to be fair there is absolutely no difference between them at all. Either could win, and your regular life won't change, but you act as if it's the end of the world lol.

lol Biden and Trump have nothing to do with bitcoin market movements. Bitcoin follows 4 year market cycle no matter what party is in the presidency. Bitcoin has done great under every president. Stock market has done great under every president during Bitcoin's existence. During Biden's presidency stocks have been on a total tear despite lots of people trying to convince everyone a recession is coming any day for the past two years lol. Remember during Trump's presidency investors were all excited about the Dow Jones hitting 20k and 25k, well now under Biden it has shot up to just under 40k so far.

At this point in Trump's presidency, just before covid hit, the country was starting to slide into a recession, despite Trump desperately trying to convince people it was the greatest economy ever lol. I remember at the start of 2020 economists were predicting barely over 0% growth, but then Covid hit so instead it was far below 0%. While right now everyone is complaining about the Fed not bringing down rates because the economy has been too strong and just won't slow down even with >5% interest rates! Regardless of any of that though, Bitcoin has simply followed its own 4 year market cycle.

Besides, neither of those people know anything about Bitcoin. Neither of them have ever actually done anything positive or negative concerning Bitcoin. Though as president they have both made negative statements about Bitcoin, well not sure Biden has actually said anything negative but he has implied negative things about bitcoin mining at least through the mining tax stuff in budget proposals.

Whether we get old man Biden or old man criminal lunatic idiot Trump as next president, Bitcoin is going to keep doing its thing and keep growing. Bitcoin will be fine...America maybe not.

I thought i noticed something similar. Reasoning in my head was that trump would probably drop lots of regulations and safeguards on trading in general. Also if his policies would be close to Ron DeSantis, they would drop taxes and increase corruption and money laundering by dropping money flow transparency. This would be good for prices in short time, and raise productivity. But would probably cause lots of new problems, and cases like FTX and failing banks where consumers wouldn't be as protected.

However i am thinking i got it totally wrong and it's more likely just my confirmation bias as we want unconciously to find simplistic patterns in the such a chaotic world, and when ever we find confirmations for our ideas, our brain gives us dopamine reward and we tend lock into them. Sometimes even our memory even fails us and supports our theories by recreating order of past to fit on that pattern we think exists.

Someone could try to research that idea and try to prove it in tradingview by seeking objectively good and bad news for trump from this election period and compare with them to the chart. However this would be near impossible job, as those good and bad news can be highly subjective and it's easy to cherry pick them to fit for our price action narrative.

Also lot's of other world events that wouldn't be visible to researcher, would still be more important to world economy than trump, and they would counter all trump indicators.

And reason i am thinking my first thought of noticing this patter was wrong, is that it just makes bitcoin look stupid. Idea that btc price would need trump to rise, says more about how little value i would see in bitcoin itself and how centralized it would be around trump.

I'm not a U.S. citizen but what happened to the United States economy gonna shake the other economy as well and I pretty much agree with you that if Trump got re-elected the bitcoin price might see a huge pump. Bitcoin today is stagnant at the 60-67K level and I just hugely hope this kinda price until election finish and the halving finish so the bull run can continue its legacy hahaha

I know how the good news about Trump works great for the stock market with little correlation with bitcoin. His time as president proved that and many people used his Tweets to make so much money then. Also, I do not think that Biden is totally against Bitcoin because during his time as president, Bitcoin recorded ATH and several bitcoin ETFs got approved. If he is against bitcoin like I think you are suggesting in terms of mining, he might not have allowed the approval of the bitcoin ETFs.

There isn't much correlation as per my understanding because there are lot of other factors which define the Bitcoin market trend but we need to understand one thing that Trump is a businessman and he can easily take some steps to manipulate the market to steer it towards his own benefit and we cannot trust him as a leader it's all about business and he has sold NFTs as well. The change of tone just means that he see more potential into Bitcoin and crypto currency in general and wants to get benefitted by it.


This is just my opinion and doesn't mean everyone has to agree as you mean choose to disagree with reasonable points.

Trump recently acknowledged the popularity of Bitcoin as an additional form of currency so somehow he changed his stance on it but even before this he already sold some NFTs using ETH which later he also sold his ETH. though he sold them, it only means he benefited from crypto and that it became useful to him.

i don't the relation of the good news about Trump making the uptrend in BTC price, it could just be a coincidence but it's true too that Biden's administration has no regard for what is going on in crypto however it's in his watch that BTC ETFs are approved.

Well, we can say many things as part of our opinion on every time we see the market surge or dumps, some will take the economical effects as the cause while some will look within the crypto space and find some reasons why the market appears the way it was, i see this as a coincidence to an extent, we cannot say bitcoin is politically influenced and these same political candidates are not making stand that they have their total dependencies on bitcoin price action even though some of them support bitcoin and some remain adamant about it, there could be as many factors to determine the market price of bitcoin, while the main ones are the demands and supply which we all know.

Well, in that regard, that is probably what you have observed during the times when there will be such an election in the country of the OP. But even so, it will still remain speculation. Although you have a point in what you say, as I mentioned, it is still an opinion.

I hope Trump wins this, because from what I can see, even though I don't reside there in the US, it's really different when someone with a high position in the government is open to bitcoin or cryptocurrency because it will have a good effect on the entire bitcoin or crypto community.

I would say that looking at how it was Bidens administration period where all these ETF's got accepted, maybe Biden is not against it neither? I do not see where the idea that he is against it came from but I think Biden doesn't even know much about bitcoin, and it's his cabinet and people he appointed that makes decisions based on bitcoin, and so far they have done a very good job welcoming bitcoin as well, so I would say Bidens period actually accepted bitcoin and even increased it.

Whereas, Trump period ended with a big bear, of course it was a bad period but I would say it is not really that crazy to think that it wouldn't be that weird, he is turning more into it now but I guess it is going to take a bit of time to get there.

I've heard that historically Trump being president has been good for stock markets (maybe it's just a coincidence, idunno), so if we assume that the SPY and bitcoin are correlated to some extent, then Trump would be good for bitcoin (supposedly).

Dont know if there is indeed a correlation in talking about election to Bitcoin or its really just that coincidence but since it does shows several patterns then it cant be ignored that there might be that correlation.
The thing i do just know that Trump is really that not against Bitcoin or simply with crypto in compared to Biden. We should really be considering that there are still other factors
on which Bitcoins price is really that been affected too but if you are really that be able to see some patterns then it isnt a bad idea on making yourself making use of these things
specially when buying or selling opportunities or chances.

Well, the angle at which you are taking this from is just strange, it is merely a gambling angle since you do not have any valid points to back your claims up. Nonetheless, the US election will certainly have an effect on Bitcoin, but mind you, it is going to be a minimal effect as always no matter the disposition of the contestants.

For your information, it is not about Bitcoin alone but all global assets, and if they are being traded electronically, the effect seems to be more obvious even if they are not significant. This has been happening far before the introduction of Bitcoin, and the reason is that the US spends the most valuable and respected currency in the world (USD), the world reserve currency and such that is paired with all assets traded electronically including Bitcoin (BTC/USD).

In this light, since the US election will cause a shift in the index of the USD (USDX), certainly, Bitcoin and all other assets paired with it will feel the effect. It now depends on the market sentiment toward the winner of the election, but the effect would have started being noticed during the counting of votes.

I also have slightly been following up the US election but have not been this so observant as you OP so I can not force in to digress to that.

But if actually your observation is authentic then apparently I would not believe that Bitcoin is being decentralized as emphasized from the Bitcoin whitepaper but to believe any of those two have regulatory conservative influences on Bitcoin. But for now it can be argued since it is not proven or maybe we can now keep eyes to that since you have dragged in our attentions.

This time it's different.   Texas is becoming anti-mining and if we have another summer like last year, it may be banned.

I think it will stay above $50K until it's obvious Trump has lost it.  (The election AND his mind lol).

I don't see any connection between the market and former president Trump, but I believe there is a strong connection between the US election and the entire financial market, not just bitcoin . If I remember correctly during presidential elections, the financial market always tends to be positive and grows very strongly that year.  And that seems to be repeating again when gold has broken its peak, stock indexes have also peaked again and bitcoin will certainly be no exception. That's why I believe we will have a super bull cycle by the end of 2024.

I think if Trump wins the election then the stock market will rally. When the stock market rallies, so will bitcoin since they are closely correlated lately.

What happened last week had more to do with bitcoin needing a pullback and the market taking a beating due to the higher than expected inflation numbers. Overall I see bitcoin and the markets reacting in a more positive note to Trump winning the election rather than Biden.

Going to be an interesting November. The betting markets are going to be big on this election.

If the price should plummet from over $60k to at least $10k because of Trump that would be about an 80% loss and would make more news headlines that when bitcoin first reached an ATH on December 2017.

I guess we will find out together next week.   If Trump loses some key properties, expect the price to plummet at least $10K.  (Prepare for an HODL attack!)   It may recover and those who buy and sell smartly now can benefit for years after Trump is buried and forgotten.