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Topic: Bitcoin vs. Gold - is market cap parity utopian? (Spoiler, no!) - page 2. (Read 1100 times)

legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Maybe I am getting a bit confused, since shouldn't the more direct comparisons be bitcoin to gold? or gold to bitcoin?  Why do we need to have the dollar in there, or even in your OP, who gives any shits about how the largely irrelevant manipulated Ethereum might fit in there?
But @fillippone, a multiple can be 0.1x as much as it can be 1,000x as JJG said Wink 1,000x would only be possible if value is shifted from gold to bitcoin or if we talk about hundreds of years and global net worth continues to expand. But let's focus on our modest lifetimes. I would say that the 5x sounds quite reasonable. Could be more, but we probably won't achieve 1,000x unless gold takes a nose dive.
Always happy about comments!
If we are talking about comparative valuations, I see no reason to get locked up into "our lifetimes" since we are not even going to be able to really figure out how long valuations could end up playing out, and whether gradually and then suddenly actually works.. or is it gradually and then continued gradually, yet we should realize that there is no such thing as completely gradually in the way that markets and battles (and wars) end up working.  We likely have the greatest wealth transfer known to mankind, so there is likely no way that such wealth transfer takes place without some collateral damage along the way.   You (we) can deny that wealth transfer is actually taking place to your (our) own peril.  People are not going to agree about wealth being transferred from them.. so yeah, the transfer is going to from the no coiners to the coiners, and the sooner that any of us becomes a coiner, then the more likely we are going to be on the receiving end of such wealth transfer rather than being on the giving end.
Since I was talking about market cap parity and you could take the Zimbabe dollar as well. It doesn't matter what you take, but you would need a  denominator and since purchasing power is still measured in some form of FIAT currency, there is no way around calculating parity scenarios as of today.

One of the reasons why people already gravitate so much towards measuring goods, services, commodities, assets or other currencies in terms of gold is because gold tends to be a more reliable denominator - even though gold fluctuates too.

There are other less liquid things that we could use as our denominator, such as hookers, lambos and blow or yachts and private airplanes.

We could also measure in terms of BigMacs or medium home prices or costs of a normal shopping basket.  Some things are more consistent with the passage of time as compared with other things.. oh yeah, and we can choose a basket of equities (or surely various index funds do that too), but yeah, currently, when we measure against currencies, we can see that the dollar is the strongest amongst the current currencies available to choose from, so we would like to measure from the strongest one, yet we should also realize tht the dollar is not a very accurate measuring stick.

So yeah, I was criticizing you for gravitating towards feeling like you have to measure against the dollar or some other fiat when our more direct question, even in the title of your OP specifically says bitcoin versus gold, why is there a need for a third measure that is likely even less accurate than measuring in terms of hookers, lambos and blow... to the extent that the third measure is even needed at all... which I am proclaiming that you feel some kind of need to measure bitcoin against the dollar and then gold against the dollar and you are likely just convoluting and distorting the information by having the dollar in there in the first place.... and as a bonus argument, I am proclaiming there really is no need for any third measurement in there and let's get to the direct question and eliminate the froth and the distortions by measuring bitcoin against gold like your thread title proclaims to be doing in the first place...

start this thread over.. hahahahahahaha

The ethereum part was provided because I remember the talk back at the time how the ethereum community was trying to push an agenda with a lot of marketing money and tricks, but the agenda fell apart ultimately.

Yeah, let's add that piece of shit to the discussion (if we really want to get distracted?). 

I will admit that I am being a bit overly flippant with you, since sometimes there can be some value in regards to adding in other comparison points, but I think that there is also value to start with the more direct one of measuring bitcoin versus gold, and if there is some value to secondary comparisons, then fine, but the main comparison seems to be valuing bitcoin versus gold and bringing in other assets/currencies that might or might not reflect something that we might be able to measure in the real world might or might not be helpful, yet it still seems less central than the direct measure between bitcoin and gold and how that has changed over time and how that is likely going to continue to change.

By the way, I have had been interviewing a few different guys in the real world to help me with some bitcoin related matters, and each of them devolved into discussions about Ethereum and some of the other shitcoins such as Solana and perhaps we mentioned a few others, which I am not completely opposed to accounting for various things going on in the shitcoin space, yet some of the frustration that I had in going down these paths of discussion is that the guys frequently were so much caught up in dollar pair analysis, and sometimes did not even realize the value of looking at ethereum with a bitcoin pair order to get some kind of a better assessement of what is actually happening in ethereum-landia... especially as compared with bitcoin.  So sometimes it can take a bit of time to get normies to wrap their heads around the value of skipping dollar as a pairing in order to get towards both a more profound analysis but also to consider ethereum versus bitcoin from another perspective rather than considering each of them in terms of dollars.

We even have that same problem with guys who seem to be completely focused on bitcoin (or bitcoin and the dollar), and so they might be trading or whatever, yet when they are measuring what they are doing in terms of the dollar, they tend to get mislead, especially the longer that we zoom out and surely maybe we are all thinking about dollar profits, but for sure, the ongoing debasement of the dollar can be difficult to account for and we might not really be able to appreciate bitcoin's superior long term performance when we are getting caught up in short term valuations that fail/refuse to capture that bitcoin is eating everyone's lunch, and likely going to continue to do so, even though sometimes on the short-term it can be difficult to identify exactly how much.

The same way there are some guys claiming that bitcoin can't reach market cap parity with gold. You could take a basket of goods, but it will have to be based on something and for now people will use a major fiat currency or the currency of their home country to see what bitcoin is worth to them.

I don't see any major problem in regards to taking the market cap of each of them, and yeah we already know that if we are describing the market cap of each of them, then it already incorporates the dollar as the referenced denominator.. .. so tend to become oriented towards them in terms of even realizing that they are both going up, in part, because the unit of measurement is changing (debasing), yet at the same time, we likely realize that bitcoin is going up faster than gold in part due to its early adoption phases, so bitcoin is still in very early stages of price discovery.. which is what happens when people actually realize that bitcoin is way better than gold (perhaps in the ballpark of 1,000x or more better), and bitcoin is created (invented/discovered) in such a way that there is a realization that anyone is capable of holding it, yet ONLY around less than 1% of the world's population have ownership of it (whether directly holding it or having price exposure), and at the same time the ones who are likely hoarding and/or engaged in maniacal accumulation of bitcoin are a small segment of the population, yet they are trying to gobble up all of the bitcoin based on their speculation that everyone else is going to want this bitcoin too, once they figure out what it is.

Whether someone likes that or not, but whatever is your daily fiat currency, you won't get around using fiat to buy bitcoin unless you are providing services valuing them in bitcoin, but even then your counterpart is doing any comparison in the national fiat currency in 99.99% of the cases.

No time soon are you going to catch me telling folks to either stop measuring in fiat values and/or keeping all of their assets in bitcoin (and not keeping any cash), even though surely there are some folks who have figured out ways for them to keep almost all of their value in bitcoin and then just cash out fiat as needed to pay for their fiat bills.  I don't recommend anything like that, yet hey people figure out their own ways of balancing bitcoin volatility as compared with fiat, which surely works out quite well during times like this when bitcoin is quite volatile to the upside, yet we likely realize that the overwhelming majority of time (even in bull markets) bitcoin tends to have a lot of volatility to the downside, so its upward volatility tends to be fewer number of days per year but still the kinds of days that anyone holding bitcoin is quite rewarded for being in bitcoin on those days rather than not being, and guys fucking around with their bitcoin allocation will sometimes not be enough in bitcoin during those few days of the year where bitcoin is irreversibly volatile to the upside and each of us would have hade been better to be "in" rather than "out" of bitcoin on those days.

The USD in the table served aas the denominator for standardization to then see what fraction 1 mBTC used to be of an ounce of gold and what fraction it used to be over the years and then more or less as of today. I can't numerically grasp the philosophical idea of bitcoin carrying value outside the USD system entirely. I wanted to provide a quick overview of how fast the bitcoin network value developed compared to gold's USD-based market cap. That's what you can do quickly. I share your idea/concepts, but this isn't something you can put quickly into an excel table.

In the end, you do whatever makes sense to you, yet I would consider that there could be some value to pick some unit of value of gold (there are charts that already do this), whether an once or a kilo or a ton or some other unit and compare it to bitcoin.  Of course, bitcoin is continuously going up in value regarding how many units of bitcoin it takes to buy whatever units of gold that you select... So to me, that seems to be the most direct way of measuring, even though yeah, the bitcoin and/or the gold is moving up or down in value relative to each other while still being able to be pegged to how many hookers, lambos and/or blow they can purchase (or whatever other outside comparative reference you would like to look at). 

I have been reading a lot of posts in various threads and noticed many people can't imagine that bitcoin could be on its way to market cap parity with gold.
...
take a look at this
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/a-logistic-model-of-bitcoins-price-5517489
I describe a gold-based pricing model
I think everyone should look at this thread, as we put a lot of effort into describing the final scenarios that might arise from a hyperbitcoinisation in which Bitcoin subtracts some value from Gold.
Also, there are a few trajectories to get to those scenarios, many of which involve multiple decades-long journeys.

Along with my earlier comment, I also think that being too narrowly focused on gold is going to contribute to a lot of under-appreciation of the monetary premium superiority of bitcoin, since monetary value is held in a lot of assets besides gold, and gold has been largely demonetized over the past 50-ish years - even though surely it has had its price runs within that time too.

The kinds of ideas presented by Jesse Myers in regards to how bitcoin is continuing to suck up monetary premium from a variety of assets besides just gold.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 17063
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
I have been reading a lot of posts in various threads and noticed many people can't imagine that bitcoin could be on its way to market cap parity with gold.

...



take a look at this

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/a-logistic-model-of-bitcoins-price-5517489

I describe a gold-based pricing model


I think everyone should look at this thread, as we put a lot of effort into describing the final scenarios that might arise from a hyperbitcoinisation in which Bitcoin subtracts some value from Gold.
Also, there are a few trajectories to get to those scenarios, many of which involve multiple decades-long journeys.

legendary
Activity: 3276
Merit: 2898
I have been reading a lot of posts in various threads and noticed many people can't imagine that bitcoin could be on its way to market cap parity with gold.

...



take a look at this

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/a-logistic-model-of-bitcoins-price-5517489

I describe a gold-based pricing model
hero member
Activity: 1526
Merit: 597

Maybe I am getting a bit confused, since shouldn't the more direct comparisons be bitcoin to gold? or gold to bitcoin?  Why do we need to have the dollar in there, or even in your OP, who gives any shits about how the largely irrelevant manipulated Ethereum might fit in there?

But @fillippone, a multiple can be 0.1x as much as it can be 1,000x as JJG said Wink 1,000x would only be possible if value is shifted from gold to bitcoin or if we talk about hundreds of years and global net worth continues to expand. But let's focus on our modest lifetimes. I would say that the 5x sounds quite reasonable. Could be more, but we probably won't achieve 1,000x unless gold takes a nose dive.

Always happy about comments!

If we are talking about comparative valuations, I see no reason to get locked up into "our lifetimes" since we are not even going to be able to really figure out how long valuations could end up playing out, and whether gradually and then suddenly actually works.. or is it gradually and then continued gradually, yet we should realize that there is no such thing as completely gradually in the way that markets and battles (and wars) end up working.  We likely have the greatest wealth transfer known to mankind, so there is likely no way that such wealth transfer takes place without some collateral damage along the way.   You (we) can deny that wealth transfer is actually taking place to your (our) own peril.  People are not going to agree about wealth being transferred from them.. so yeah, the transfer is going to from the no coiners to the coiners, and the sooner that any of us becomes a coiner, then the more likely we are going to be on the receiving end of such wealth transfer rather than being on the giving end.

Since I was talking about market cap parity and you could take the Zimbabe dollar as well. It doesn't matter what you take, but you would need a  denominator and since purchasing power is still measured in some form of FIAT currency, there is no way around calculating parity scenarios as of today.

The ethereum part was provided because I remember the talk back at the time how the ethereum community was trying to push an agenda with a lot of marketing money and tricks, but the agenda fell apart ultimately. The same way there are some guys claiming that bitcoin can't reach market cap parity with gold. You could take a basket of goods, but it will have to be based on something and for now people will use a major fiat currency or the currency of their home country to see what bitcoin is worth to them. Whether someone likes that or not, but whatever is your daily fiat currency, you won't get around using fiat to buy bitcoin unless you are providing services valuing them in bitcoin, but even then your counterpart is doing any comparison in the national fiat currency in 99.99% of the cases.

The USD in the table served aas the denominator for standardization to then see what fraction 1 mBTC used to be of an ounce of gold and what fraction it used to be over the years and then more or less as of today. I can't numerically grasp the philosophical idea of bitcoin carrying value outside the USD system entirely. I wanted to provide a quick overview of how fast the bitcoin network value developed compared to gold's USD-based market cap. That's what you can do quickly. I share your idea/concepts, but this isn't something you can put quickly into an excel table.
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
I particularly like thinking about bitcoin in terms of gold. I think it is a very sensible way of “purifying” bitcoin from the money inflation of the FIAT system.
So I haven’t any precise target in terms of dollar price, while I have a precise target in terms of gold price.spoiler alert: it is a multiple of the gold capitalisation.
when you say multiple, do you mean 1,000x or more?

I would suggest that bitcoin is around 1,000x more valuable than gold, yet it could still take 50-200 years to reach that relative valuations reflected in its street price (meaning market cap)

If you are talking about somewhere between 10x and 100x, then you are likely just toying with the actual valuation that is more likely closer to 1,000x or greater.

Yet, whatever.. valuations can vary.. and surely it might take a while to actually see some kind of a fair valuation that takes so many years of back and forth to actually play out.. unless the suddenly part of "gradual and then suddenly" ends up playing out quicker than expected.
Dear lord!
I thought I was bullish as I thought about 5x the gold capitalisation. And now you are going to say me I am too shy.

You are overly whimpy.  Snap out of it.   Tongue


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

By the way, I personally am not proclaiming that BTC prices have to go up or that gold prices have to come down in order to get the repricing in the 1,000x-ish arena.. and sure at the same time, since I am suggesting that it could take 50 to 200 years or longer for the pricing to work itself out, there is almost no way that I would end up seeing this in my lifetime, unless for some reason my shorter-timeframe ends up being too long.

So, yeah, since as I type this post, bitcoin is about 1/15th the price (market cap) of gold, then just on the face of reach what I would consider fair market valuations of gold relative to bitcoin, we are going to need to see bitcoin come up around 30,000x compared with gold in terms of today's market prices and/or gold come down 30,000x, which would be 1/30,000 (-99.996667%), relative to bitcoin... so gold would retain 0.00003333% of its current value, relative to bitcoin.

Sure, I accept that I might be off by a bit.

There is a member on the Italian board that has published a little model. It is translated in English here, but I urged him to post as a new thread.
There you can understand my reasonings.

Call me a lazy butt.

I cannot read through all of that, and part of the reason is that I find that there is a bit of a faulty framework to get too caught up in considering the extent to which gold is currently monetized, and sure it is possible that if we looked back at gold historically - prior to the various ways that it has been demonetized, then perhaps we might be able to come to some fair value considerations of gold as compared to other monetary mechanisms, yet in the past 100 years or so, monetization has spread into a lot of assets, a lot of products, properties and derivatives of other products, so if we are going to attempt to valuate bitcoin's monetary properties as compared with other monetary vehicles, then we have to look at the so many ways that so many other assets and currencies have been modified, and consider that bitcoin is a much more efficient way to store money as compared with the so many ways that money is currently being stored, and sure perhaps bitcoin does not absorb all of world's monetary premium, I still think that bitcoin is going to continue to absorb a lot of the monetary premium of a lot of the places where monetization is currently taking place, and also more value is going to be created in the world while these dynamics are playing out in the next 50-200 years.

So perhaps right now the monetary premium of world assets, properties and currencies amounts to somewhere in the ballpark of $1 Quadrillion, and so currently bitcoin is about $1.5 trillion of that which is about 0.15%, and gold is about $17 trillion of that, which is about 1.7%.  Bitcoin could probably end up absorbing all of that $1 quadrillion, and yeah have the assumption that the pie is going to continue to grow (and I am not even referring to the debasement of the dollar) but instead in real terms and the likelihood of new inventions (and new value creation) that comes with improvements in technology.. just like value increased with the discovery/invention of electricity, improved transportation, the internet, etc.

I haven’t any precise target in terms of dollar price, while I have a precise target in terms of gold price.spoiler alert: it is a multiple of the gold capitalisation.
If you are talking about somewhere between 10x and 100x, then you are likely just toying with the actual valuation that is more likely closer to 1,000x or greater.
It's really nice to see that now more people are ready to agree with the old speculations like $1 per 1 satoshi or 1 Billion per bitcoin kind of stuff. Moreover, I am glad about being one of them and all my speculations were purely by considering the rest of the world population who are yet to buy their first satoshi and by "why not" kind of hunch feeling.
It is translated in English here
Thank you for linking here. I am always curious on all theories which are dealing about the final target of bitcoin price, final target in the sense, at least what I could see in my life time.

Personally, I doubt that it is necessary for us to see the high prices that we project within our lifetimes, even though sure there is more practicality in terms of projecting shorter timelines.

One importance is that if we can see the trajectory, then we likely can also see directionally where we are likely going, if there are likely going to be bumps in the road along the way, and surely there also is importance to understand and appreciate that we are still likely to be quite prosperous in the shorter timelines, like 10 to 30 years, even though bitcoin will still be in route to higher trajectories, and we are likely better to be in bitcoin rather than not being in bitcoin.. and it still is going to take a lot of normies a decently long time to jump on board.

I particularly like thinking about bitcoin in terms of gold. I think it is a very sensible way of “purifying” bitcoin from the money inflation of the FIAT system.
So I haven’t any precise target in terms of dollar price, while I have a precise target in terms of gold price.spoiler alert: it is a multiple of the gold capitalisation.
Great to see some more members chiming in here. I didn't want to get the same topic started for the 100th time here. That is why I decided to standardize an ounce of gold to mBTC and that worked out quite ok approximately (give or take). I think the table I created demonstrates the tremendous pace at which bitcoin did catch up with potential parity to gold.

I have provided the explanations in OP, but so far we went from mBTC being 5.6 million x of an ounce of gold to low double digit x. That's blowing my mind and this is more than just some speculative bubble. But please keep in mind I have worked with estimates and that is why I used the dividor 1/3. About 7 billion ounces of gold vs. 21 billion mBTC.

Maybe I am getting a bit confused, since shouldn't the more direct comparisons be bitcoin to gold? or gold to bitcoin?  Why do we need to have the dollar in there, or even in your OP, who gives any shits about how the largely irrelevant manipulated Ethereum might fit in there?

But @fillippone, a multiple can be 0.1x as much as it can be 1,000x as JJG said Wink 1,000x would only be possible if value is shifted from gold to bitcoin or if we talk about hundreds of years and global net worth continues to expand. But let's focus on our modest lifetimes. I would say that the 5x sounds quite reasonable. Could be more, but we probably won't achieve 1,000x unless gold takes a nose dive.

Always happy about comments!

If we are talking about comparative valuations, I see no reason to get locked up into "our lifetimes" since we are not even going to be able to really figure out how long valuations could end up playing out, and whether gradually and then suddenly actually works.. or is it gradually and then continued gradually, yet we should realize that there is no such thing as completely gradually in the way that markets and battles (and wars) end up working.  We likely have the greatest wealth transfer known to mankind, so there is likely no way that such wealth transfer takes place without some collateral damage along the way.   You (we) can deny that wealth transfer is actually taking place to your (our) own peril.  People are not going to agree about wealth being transferred from them.. so yeah, the transfer is going to from the no coiners to the coiners, and the sooner that any of us becomes a coiner, then the more likely we are going to be on the receiving end of such wealth transfer rather than being on the giving end.
hero member
Activity: 1526
Merit: 597
It's really simple in my mind. Best money always wins based on its properties, and specifically, based on the amount that is brought into circulation periodically. Gold took the best money throne, because it was the least inflationary, comparably to other metals, while inheriting the good properties, such as divisibility and durability.

Bitcoin will take the best money throne because it is completely resistant to supply changes. It's a matter of time before it surpasses gold in terms of market cap.

Yep, basically this^^

The better money wins out and there is no doubt about that. Bitcoin opens up new options that gold could not have, compared to Bitcoin. But then again, comparing gold to Bitcoin only makes sense in a currency perspective. Outside of that, gold is used/needed for many things that Bitcoin cannot do, due to its non-physical nature. Comparing market caps based on that is a bit like comparing apples to oranges.

So measuring both in terms of market cap is not really going to work.

It needs some abstraction, which without knowing you, I believe you are able to do? (Not intending to draw away from the main topic).
legendary
Activity: 2254
Merit: 2003
A Bitcoiner chooses. A slave obeys.
It's really simple in my mind. Best money always wins based on its properties, and specifically, based on the amount that is brought into circulation periodically. Gold took the best money throne, because it was the least inflationary, comparably to other metals, while inheriting the good properties, such as divisibility and durability.

Bitcoin will take the best money throne because it is completely resistant to supply changes. It's a matter of time before it surpasses gold in terms of market cap.

Yep, basically this^^

The better money wins out and there is no doubt about that. Bitcoin opens up new options that gold could not have, compared to Bitcoin. But then again, comparing gold to Bitcoin only makes sense in a currency perspective. Outside of that, gold is used/needed for many things that Bitcoin cannot do, due to its non-physical nature. Comparing market caps based on that is a bit like comparing apples to oranges.

So measuring both in terms of market cap is not really going to work.
hero member
Activity: 1526
Merit: 597
I particularly like thinking about bitcoin in terms of gold. I think it is a very sensible way of “purifying” bitcoin from the money inflation of the FIAT system.
So I haven’t any precise target in terms of dollar price, while I have a precise target in terms of gold price.spoiler alert: it is a multiple of the gold capitalisation.

Great to see some more members chiming in here. I didn't want to get the same topic started for the 100th time here. That is why I decided to standardize an ounce of gold to mBTC and that worked out quite ok approximately (give or take). I think the table I created demonstrates the tremendous pace at which bitcoin did catch up with potential parity to gold.



I have provided the explanations in OP, but so far we went from mBTC being 5.6 million x of an ounce of gold to low double digit x. That's blowing my mind and this is more than just some speculative bubble. But please keep in mind I have worked with estimates and that is why I used the dividor 1/3. About 7 billion ounces of gold vs. 21 billion mBTC.

But @fillippone, a multiple can be 0.1x as much as it can be 1,000x as JJG said Wink 1,000x would only be possible if value is shifted from gold to bitcoin or if we talk about hundreds of years and global net worth continues to expand. But let's focus on our modest lifetimes. I would say that the 5x sounds quite reasonable. Could be more, but we probably won't achieve 1,000x unless gold takes a nose dive.

Always happy about comments!
hero member
Activity: 3220
Merit: 678
www.Crypto.Games: Multiple coins, multiple games
I haven’t any precise target in terms of dollar price, while I have a precise target in terms of gold price.spoiler alert: it is a multiple of the gold capitalisation.
If you are talking about somewhere between 10x and 100x, then you are likely just toying with the actual valuation that is more likely closer to 1,000x or greater.
It's really nice to see that now more people are ready to agree with the old speculations like $1 per 1 satoshi or 1 Billion per bitcoin kind of stuff. Moreover, I am glad about being one of them and all my speculations were purely by considering the rest of the world population who are yet to buy their first satoshi and by "why not" kind of hunch feeling.

It is translated in English here
Thank you for linking here. I am always curious on all theories which are dealing about the final target of bitcoin price, final target in the sense, at least what I could see in my life time.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 17063
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
I particularly like thinking about bitcoin in terms of gold. I think it is a very sensible way of “purifying” bitcoin from the money inflation of the FIAT system.
So I haven’t any precise target in terms of dollar price, while I have a precise target in terms of gold price.spoiler alert: it is a multiple of the gold capitalisation.

when you say multiple, do you mean 1,000x or more?

I would suggest that bitcoin is around 1,000x more valuable than gold, yet it could still take 50-200 years to reach that relative valuations reflected in its street price (meaning market cap)

If you are talking about somewhere between 10x and 100x, then you are likely just toying with the actual valuation that is more likely closer to 1,000x or greater.

Yet, whatever.. valuations can vary.. and surely it might take a while to actually see some kind of a fair valuation that takes so many years of back and forth to actually play out.. unless the suddenly part of "gradual and then suddenly" ends up playing out quicker than expected.

Dear lord!
I thought I was bullish as I thought about 5x the gold capitalisation. And now you are going to say me I am too shy.
There is a member on the Italian board that has published a little model. It is translated in English here, but I urged him to post as a new thread.
There you can understand my reasonings.
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
I particularly like thinking about bitcoin in terms of gold. I think it is a very sensible way of “purifying” bitcoin from the money inflation of the FIAT system.
So I haven’t any precise target in terms of dollar price, while I have a precise target in terms of gold price.spoiler alert: it is a multiple of the gold capitalisation.

when you say multiple, do you mean 1,000x or more?

I would suggest that bitcoin is around 1,000x more valuable than gold, yet it could still take 50-200 years to reach that relative valuations reflected in its street price (meaning market cap)

If you are talking about somewhere between 10x and 100x, then you are likely just toying with the actual valuation that is more likely closer to 1,000x or greater.

Yet, whatever.. valuations can vary.. and surely it might take a while to actually see some kind of a fair valuation that takes so many years of back and forth to actually play out.. unless the suddenly part of "gradual and then suddenly" ends up playing out quicker than expected.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 17063
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
I particularly like thinking about bitcoin in terms of gold. I think it is a very sensible way of “purifying” bitcoin from the money inflation of the FIAT system.
So I haven’t any precise target in terms of dollar price, while I have a precise target in terms of gold price.spoiler alert: it is a multiple of the gold capitalisation.
hero member
Activity: 1526
Merit: 597
I think capitalization is something that is quite extensive to explain, but it is necessary to point out something, gold has a much longer history than BTC and that is something that has weight, now BTC is the asset of the future and many young people prefer BTC more than gold itself, so everything is a matter of changes in the world, the most accepted without a doubt is gold, but the most desired worldwide is to have BTC, both represent money and it is not a secret that having both is the smartest.
You have not presented any reason why both gold and bitcoin is smart and/or why the holding any gold is actually smart, especially when bitcoin does almost everything that gold does, except better.  Perhaps the ONLY reason to hold gold is for Armageddon purposes, or perhaps if there is already a good gold network in your geography... .. yet there maybe quite a bit of prudence, even for the guy choosing to hold some gold to actually mostly move over to bitcoin with 90-95% of his value in bitcoin and perhaps at most 5% to 10% the value of his bitcoin holding might be permissible to hold in gold for Armageddon or whatever outsided scenario that is anticipated in which bitcoin might not be a possibility.
For Armageddon cases I would rather hold BTC. Can take it with me to the moon just in case the psychopath Elon Musk has the rockets ready.

Let's try to be a bit more realistic.

I was trying to give some kind of a benefit of the doubt to some kind of a scenario that could play out in which there was no longer internet, electronic communication and/or electricity and/or some kinds of a scenario in which gold would lose all or most of its value and gold would become relevant as some kind of a monetary intermediary.   I doubt those kinds of scenarios are very likely, and I doubt that spaceships would be a part of it.. and truely seems stupid for anyone to actually believe that within our lifetimes (even within 100 years absent sme kind of strong evidence showing livable systems) any kind of quality of life could be achieved off of this particular planet.

Can't take all the gold with me, but can take billions in BTC with me and the chance that in a nuclear war BTC is recoverable, the chance is much higher than any of my gold is recoverable during my lifetime.

It is pretty interesting how some people do either not understand, or lie about the facts.

I doubt that it is even very helpful to try to figure out how a variety of possible fringe scenarios might play out in order to attempt to figure out some kind of reasonable allocation in terms of bitcoin versus gold versus whatever else that we might want to invest into, and surely it can be difficult to get allocation matters correct in any specific way, even though there may be ways to have some directional correctness and also preparedness for a variety of possible directional scenarios, without necessarily getting into particulars.. so we should be attempting to prepare for a variety of scenarios, including more likely scenarios and at the same time having some preparedness for outlier fringe scenarios, yet it still seems a bit crazy to put more than 1% preparations into scenarios that may have way less than 1% chances of playing out...yet each of us has to figure out how much resources, time, energy and or value to place in each of a variety of scenarios that might even have fringe chances of playing out.

Well, JJG, I wasn't particularly asking for the most extreme case, but if we get to the one of the most important characteristics that gives BTC value, it is its mobility. The mobility is unprecedented. It is unlimited. I wanted to use this as a symbol. You can literally take BTC to the moon. I therefore said if "psychopath" Musk can build the rockets, the chance that you can get your BTC with you is a million, a trillion times higher than being able to take your gold with you.

The advantages of BTC are just so plain that I sometimes don't understand why people don't get it. They want this physical aspect. If I can't touch it, it is not of value. While in the same time they would invest in an NFT for a piece of art. How is that possible?
legendary
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I think capitalization is something that is quite extensive to explain, but it is necessary to point out something, gold has a much longer history than BTC and that is something that has weight, now BTC is the asset of the future and many young people prefer BTC more than gold itself, so everything is a matter of changes in the world, the most accepted without a doubt is gold, but the most desired worldwide is to have BTC, both represent money and it is not a secret that having both is the smartest.
You have not presented any reason why both gold and bitcoin is smart and/or why the holding any gold is actually smart, especially when bitcoin does almost everything that gold does, except better.  Perhaps the ONLY reason to hold gold is for Armageddon purposes, or perhaps if there is already a good gold network in your geography... .. yet there maybe quite a bit of prudence, even for the guy choosing to hold some gold to actually mostly move over to bitcoin with 90-95% of his value in bitcoin and perhaps at most 5% to 10% the value of his bitcoin holding might be permissible to hold in gold for Armageddon or whatever outsided scenario that is anticipated in which bitcoin might not be a possibility.
For Armageddon cases I would rather hold BTC. Can take it with me to the moon just in case the psychopath Elon Musk has the rockets ready.

Let's try to be a bit more realistic.

I was trying to give some kind of a benefit of the doubt to some kind of a scenario that could play out in which there was no longer internet, electronic communication and/or electricity and/or some kinds of a scenario in which bitcoin would lose all or most of its value due to such hypotheticals playing out and gold would become relevant as some kind of a monetary intermediary.  

I doubt those kinds of scenarios are very likely, and I doubt that spaceships would be a part of such a scenario.. and truly seems stupid for anyone to actually believe that within our lifetimes (even within 100 years absent some kind of strong evidence showing livable systems) any kind of quality of life could be achieved off of this particular planet.

Can't take all the gold with me, but can take billions in BTC with me and the chance that in a nuclear war BTC is recoverable, the chance is much higher than any of my gold is recoverable during my lifetime.

It is pretty interesting how some people do either not understand, or lie about the facts.

I doubt that it is even very helpful to try to figure out how a variety of possible fringe scenarios might play out in order to attempt to figure out some kind of reasonable allocation in terms of bitcoin versus gold versus whatever else that we might want to invest into, and surely it can be difficult to get allocation matters correct in any specific way, even though there may be ways to have some directional correctness and also preparedness for a variety of possible directional scenarios, without necessarily getting into particulars.. so we should be attempting to prepare for a variety of scenarios, including more likely scenarios and at the same time having some preparedness for outlier fringe scenarios, yet it still seems a bit crazy to put more than 1% preparations into scenarios that may have way less than 1% chances of playing out...yet each of us has to figure out how much resources, time, energy and or value to place in each of a variety of scenarios that might even have fringe chances of playing out.
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I think capitalization is something that is quite extensive to explain, but it is necessary to point out something, gold has a much longer history than BTC and that is something that has weight, now BTC is the asset of the future and many young people prefer BTC more than gold itself, so everything is a matter of changes in the world, the most accepted without a doubt is gold, but the most desired worldwide is to have BTC, both represent money and it is not a secret that having both is the smartest.

You have not presented any reason why both gold and bitcoin is smart and/or why the holding any gold is actually smart, especially when bitcoin does almost everything that gold does, except better.  Perhaps the ONLY reason to hold gold is for Armageddon purposes, or perhaps if there is already a good gold network in your geography... .. yet there maybe quite a bit of prudence, even for the guy choosing to hold some gold to actually mostly move over to bitcoin with 90-95% of his value in bitcoin and perhaps at most 5% to 10% the value of his bitcoin holding might be permissible to hold in gold for Armageddon or whatever outsided scenario that is anticipated in which bitcoin might not be a possibility.

At the market level, gold has gained a lot of value, BTC too,

For Armageddon cases I would rather hold BTC. Can take it with me to the moon just in case the psychopath Elon Musk has the rockets ready. Can't take all the gold with me, but can take billions in BTC with me and the chance that in a nuclear war BTC is recoverable, the chance is much higher than any of my gold is recoverable during my lifetime.

It is pretty interesting how some people do either not understand, or lie about the facts.

I am also not one of the people who believe Bitcoin will meet Gold in market capitalization
You don't believe Bitcoin can do a 14x, when it's been doubling every year on average for the last few years?
Nothing reads 14x in what you replied to, it's all about the market capitalization of Gold and Bitcoin. If Bitcoin rises 14x, will Gold remain the same? It's a simple arithmetic.

Quote
The physical value is only a tiny fraction of its monetary value. Gold is valuated at where it is, because it has had the best money properties until 2009. Same like, Bitcoin is valuated at where it is, because it is recognized as the best money in terms of monetary properties. It is not valuated at $1T, *just* for being peer-to-peer cash system.
Really? That's a misconception, over $12T worth of Gold has been mined so far. But let's pretend such a huge worth has not been mined, don't you think more people will still prefer Gold because it is a name with physical representation than Bitcoin which is entirely virtual?

https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/market-primer/gold-market-primer-market-size-and-structure.

I assume that you try to suggest that if Bitcoin rises, gold will rise by a lot. Can you please, I ask you for a last time, last try, have a look at my excel table in the first post? Do you understand why I standardized gold ounces and calculated the multipliers to mBTC? I have paid attention to the fact that I don't just write another copy thread, I wanted to share an observation that made me excited myself and I have never painted that picture so clearly for myself. That is why I did the maths. The fact of the matter is that BTC went thousands and thousands of X while gold did nothing but go sideways.

Now tell me about the simple arithmetic that you are finding to be true, just let us know.

My guess is if gold doubles for whatever reason, BTC will go at least 6x, probably 8x in the same time. Now my real expectation is even more bullish, but to not shy you away from saying something here, I want to try to at least give you another shot to explain your arithmetic (as it is so simple).

Note: talkimg.com seems to be down for the moment. I'll upload it as soon as I found an alternative. Just read my analysis and draw your own arithmetic conclusions.
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Listening was valuable in the past, when Bitcoin was not.  So the value of Bitcoin is very high at present and its demand is increasing with time, but gold is a dead asset. Gold has gained only a fraction of what it was in the past, but you'll notice that the price of Bitcoin is averaging more than 100 percent plus every year. Both gold and banks are in the same category, but Bitcoin is much more modern and different from them and is the most powerful digital currency of today. 
With its price steadily increasing and getting older in the future, in just about 15 years, Bitcoin has created a lot of buzz around the world as the best coin in the world today.
legendary
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Nothing reads 14x in what you replied to, it's all about the market capitalization of Gold and Bitcoin. If Bitcoin rises 14x, will Gold remain the same? It's a simple arithmetic.
Buddy, gold is a dead rock, and it's getting demonetized, because it's no longer the best money. Back in the gold standard, and during the 20th century, it was the best money, but not anymore. It's not just Bitcoin, it's the fact that technology advanced, and we can extract gold much easier and in larger sums than before.
Let me be sincere with you now, I opened my mouth wide for seconds in amazement at what you said, what???

I would have loved it if you backed your claims with some points, perhaps some links and statistics to prove what you said. I won't say much, but let me say this, If Gold is a "dead rock" and is being "demonetized" as you claimed, how come it attracted over $5T in investment this year alone?

You have already made your various arguments, and good for you if you love gold so much that you believe that it deserves any more than 10% the size of your bitcoin holdings, and even 10% may well be too much, and you can have fun staying poor if you are allocating greater amounts than that..

Also, if you are smarter than the bitcoiners and gold pumps while bitcoin stays stagnant, then great on you for being such a smartie pants in your playing with your dead rock that had not only been demonetized but paperized into mostly irrelevancy (if not its own death).
STT
legendary
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I love this argument exists because its probably bullish for both assets.   Most people are considering neither and the progression away from the status quo of decades has alot further to go before 'full' in any way.

   The world is heavily biased to FIAT and one particular brand of FIAT which is the biggest thing thats going to change.  I do doubt any singular path will become the new alternative and replacement for Dollar.   Even if you thought that, first the situation will fracture and many alternative assets will be used.   Thats my simple take.

Over thousands of years we have had much technological development, Bitcoin is unique but also its part of that process.  The only constant is change, we are and will change but also it wont alter that change has been considerable in the past also.

Its all fair discussion, go back to beginnings of BTC and Im sure it was debated similarly then also.   Why would Satoshi bother if gold is so great, he wasn't any fool and was aware of many details to the events of 2008 before and after, he did bother for good reasons.
   I see the point of gold is that it lasts without needing any central bank its just an element of some worth and characteristic; there is some small use for it and its unique.

  In my opinion its not in competition, ironically an ASIC BTC circuit would use gold most likely.  I dont see the decline of its use as its been unpopular at times previous also but on a long term time frame its always the same; it did arguably fall for most of a decade after peaking in 2011 (also 1981~).
  Karl Marx existed on 82 ounces of gold a year given by an industrialist friend, he is buried in London not far from where they set the world gold price twice daily.  I like simplicity but not absolute where we attempt to bleach out detail; life is alot more interwoven varied and repeating in a pattern beyond the brief generation we represent.
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Nothing reads 14x in what you replied to, it's all about the market capitalization of Gold and Bitcoin. If Bitcoin rises 14x, will Gold remain the same? It's a simple arithmetic.
Buddy, gold is a dead rock, and it's getting demonetized, because it's no longer the best money. Back in the gold standard, and during the 20th century, it was the best money, but not anymore. It's not just Bitcoin, it's the fact that technology advanced, and we can extract gold much easier and in larger sums than before.
Let me be sincere with you now, I opened my mouth wide for seconds in amazement at what you said, what???

I would have loved it if you backed your claims with some points, perhaps some links and statistics to prove what you said. I won't say much, but let me say this, If Gold is a "dead rock" and is being "demonetized" as you claimed, how come it attracted over $5T in investment this year alone?
legendary
Activity: 3920
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
I am also not one of the people who believe Bitcoin will meet Gold in market capitalization
You don't believe Bitcoin can do a 14x, when it's been doubling every year on average for the last few years?
Nothing reads 14x in what you replied to, it's all about the market capitalization of Gold and Bitcoin. If Bitcoin rises 14x, will Gold remain the same? It's a simple arithmetic.
Quote
The physical value is only a tiny fraction of its monetary value. Gold is valuated at where it is, because it has had the best money properties until 2009. Same like, Bitcoin is valuated at where it is, because it is recognized as the best money in terms of monetary properties. It is not valuated at $1T, *just* for being peer-to-peer cash system.
Really? That's a misconception, over $12T worth of Gold has been mined so far. But let's pretend such a huge worth has not been mined, don't you think more people will still prefer Gold because it is a name with physical representation than Bitcoin which is entirely virtual?

https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/market-primer/gold-market-primer-market-size-and-structure.
Through the years, we have had similar gold pumping and bitcoin naysaying discussions and the gold holders have not done too well as compared with bitcoin, so sometimes it is surprising to see those same largely debunked arguments reviving themselves.

Good luck with your gold investment (relative to bitcoin) you are going to need it.

Hopefully, you are not so short-sighted as to be putting more than 10% of your value into gold as compared with what you put into bitcoin (and even 10% relative to bitcoin might be a bit high), yet of course, you are free to allocate your time, energy and value however you like and see how it fares for you.
For starters, you misrepresented the point, if you reread what you replied to from the beginning, you will realise that I wasn't talking about ROI possibility but the market capitalization, Gold is compressed to avoid inflation, so it can never beat Bitcoin in ROI with its current structure.

I think that I understood and sufficiently responded to your convoluted and misleading point well enough.

Nevertheless, it's my choice to put all my money in Gold but my experience in investment will not allow me, and a big Thank You for that advice, you deserve it.

You are likely being sarcastic, and I was responding publicly, not to just you, since this is a public thread, and hopefully no one would have misunderstood your earlier point to suggest that any kind of meaningful allocation to gold would be prudent, except perhaps in some exceptional cases.

And if you must know, I invest more in Bitcoin than Gold for the higher ROI possibility (simple wisdom). But that will NEVER blind my eyes to the truth, unlike many others.

Yes.  Your version of the truth is to have some fantasy vision of gold, and hopefully, you are not just a little bit more invested into bitcoin, but instead something like not allocating any more than 10% the value of your bitcoin holdings into gold....

So for example, I tend to suggest that beginner investors into bitcoin consider anywhere between 5% and 25% of their overall investment portfolio into bitcoin, and sure they can go outside of that range, but that has been my recommendation since about early to mid 2020, prior to that I recommended 1% to 10% to bitcoin as a starting allocation, and surely each person has to tailor to his own situation so if he is more bullish about bitcoin, then he would invest towards the higher end of the range and if he is less bullish, then he would invest towards the lower end of the range.  In the end, surely any person who has studied bitcoin and/or his situation more would be able to go beyond what I was recommending as a initial starting range to consider.

My assertion is that if a guy had decided to invest around 15% of his investment portfolio into bitcoin, then hopefully no more than 10% of that would be in gold, so his gold holdings would be no more than 1.5% of his total overall investment portfolio.

And when it comes to the asset that won in market capitalization, Gold has it, which was the genesis of this discussion unless you have different statistics from the one known by the world.

I think that we are currently working with similar statistics in terms of bitcoin having right around a $1.3 trillion market cap and gold having right around $17 trillion market cap.  You seem to have a different spin on the significance of that, and whatever, you can spin whatever you like.  More or less right now bitcoin has about 1/15th of gold's market cap, yet at the same time bitcoin is likely valued around 1,000x more than gold, so it may well take 50-200 years for the valuation to be more accurately reflected in relative BTC versus gold prices, whether BTC goes up or gold comes down or some combination of the two.

One of the things that is inevitable in life is revolution because that is what keeps the world advancing so i think the era when gold was seen as the most valuable asset is coming to an end since bitcoin has now surfaced and bitcoin will also continue to be in dominance till maybe something else evolve and also subdue the value of bitcoin but for now i doubt if there is anything than can contest in worth and values as bitcoin. Gold has been in dominance since 600 BCE so it's time for it to give way to the greatest invention of our time (bitcoin).
To be fair, bitcoin is a worthy competitor to gold but it is still too early to say that the appeal of gold or the era of gold is over and now it is the era of bitcoin and crypto.

First.  There is no need to bring up shitcoins, and to convolute the point with bitcoin "and crypto" since crypto is largely irrelevant.

Try to stay focused.  We are talking about bitcoin versus gold, so no need to deviate into gobbledee gook talk.


If you cannot recognize that bitcoin is already the superior asset and that value is going to continue to gravitate into bitcoin with the likely loss of more and more importance of value being stored in gold, then too bad for you to be failing/refusing to recognize, appreciate the more valuable asset (namely bitcoin) so that you would be able to allocate appropriately into bitcoin and mostly lessen or minimize your exposure to gold.

Yet, whatever, you can do what you like if you would like to stay allocated to gold then have fun with that... You may or may not be able to at least outperform the dollar, while at the same time your lunch will continue to get eaten by bitcoin if you know how to measure the value of your gold allocation as compared with the value of your bitcoin allocation.

We should be realistic that bitcoin is still not as popular as gold, and gold is still the top choice of governments and major investors.

Are you trying to convince guys here to allocate to gold?  Just in case gold might be able to pull a rabbit out of a hat?

You've been registered on the forum since 2015, so have you been able to figure out what bitcoin is in the last 9-ish years?  Do you think that governments, institutions and/or individuals or going to keep investing into gold when bitcoin is superior in terms of various money aspects?  Bitcoin is better in regards to verifiability, transportability, scarcity, divisibility, costs associated with third parties and other aspects too.   

You seem deluded if you are still on the gold train, or maybe you just need to spend a bit more time trying to study and/or figure out bitcoin - which more and more people are new to bitcoin and they are figuring out that bitcoin is amongst the best, if not the best of monies ever known to mankind, so even if it might take a bit of time for value to gravitate into bitcoin (as compared with other assets, including but not limited to gold), the process of value gravitating into bitcoin is ongoing, so best if you try to recognize it and get ahead of it, instead of denying that it is taking place.

As far as I know, countries like Russia, China and many others are still buying gold in large quantities, not bitcoin.

As far as you know, you are praying for the old ideas to persist, even though a better monetary unit is here and even though many of the countries (big and small) are also getting more and more and more involved in bitcoin.. sometimes overtly and sometimes covertly.

That shows they still value gold more than any other asset for national reserves.

Good luck with those old arguments and perspectives, you are going to likely need some luck when you have that kind of a perspective..,. but luck is not likely even on your side if you believe that you should be allocating into gold rather than bitcoin.. or even allocating any more than 10% of your assets into gold as compared with what you have into bitcoin.

Moreover, the demand for gold is not limited to being an asset or investment but it is also applied in many industries.

In regards to bitcoin, monetary premium is the ONLY one that really matters.  Sure gold has some value in the physical world, but that is hardly what gives gold its value... and when it comes to monetary premium, bitcoin is way more efficient than a lot of assets in terms of how bitcoin is mostly only monetary premium as compared with other less efficient ways that value is held, whether we are referring to gold and its industrial use or we are referring to various other ways that excess value is held in residential properties, equities and in other ways in part because various kinds of fiats are ongoingly debased so people search where to hold their monetary premium so that their monetary value does not get debased away from them if they were to hold such value in cash.

So I think gold may no longer be an attractive investment but it is still a safe haven option, a hedge against future inflation.

It is not as good as bitcoin.  Sure it might do better than cash.. perhaps? but it won't do better than bitcoin in terms of being a hedge against the debasement of the dollar (and other fiat).  Try moving $10 million in gold versus bitcoin... also same thing is true with going across the borders with $20k.. try it with gold and see how it works out for you.

As for bitcoin, it is considered the best growth asset ever, so it can surpass gold, but that will not happen in the next 1 or 2 years. We need more time for bitcoin to take over and become the best investment.

Where have you been in the last 10 years?  It is already happening, it continues to happen and it will continue to happen.

You can be blind to the matter, or you can try to get ahead of the matter.  The writing is on the wall, and sure, you can choose to ignore it and continue to pump gold as if it were to even have close to a chance as compared with bitcoin.. and you likely are not going to fare as well if you are overly allocating into gold as compared to allocating in bitcoin.. and personally, I think you are nearly completely wasting your time since bitcoin is around 1,000x better than gold, yet it is ONLY around 1/15th the price of gold right now in terms of market cap... so you make your choice about whether to do something now or to wait until the difference in value shrinks more. .and where bitcoin takes its rightful place of having a market value that is around 1,000x greater than gold.
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