Topic: Bitcoin vs. Gold - is market cap parity utopian? (Spoiler, no!) - page 2. (Read 898 times)

It's really nice to see that now more people are ready to agree with the old speculations like $1 per 1 satoshi or 1 Billion per bitcoin kind of stuff. Moreover, I am glad about being one of them and all my speculations were purely by considering the rest of the world population who are yet to buy their first satoshi and by "why not" kind of hunch feeling.

Thank you for linking here. I am always curious on all theories which are dealing about the final target of bitcoin price, final target in the sense, at least what I could see in my life time.

Dear lord!
I thought I was bullish as I thought about 5x the gold capitalisation. And now you are going to say me I am too shy.
There is a member on the Italian board that has published a little model. It is translated in English here, but I urged him to post as a new thread.
There you can understand my reasonings.

when you say multiple, do you mean 1,000x or more?

I would suggest that bitcoin is around 1,000x more valuable than gold, yet it could still take 50-200 years to reach that relative valuations reflected in its street price (meaning market cap)

If you are talking about somewhere between 10x and 100x, then you are likely just toying with the actual valuation that is more likely closer to 1,000x or greater.

Yet, whatever.. valuations can vary.. and surely it might take a while to actually see some kind of a fair valuation that takes so many years of back and forth to actually play out.. unless the suddenly part of "gradual and then suddenly" ends up playing out quicker than expected.

I particularly like thinking about bitcoin in terms of gold. I think it is a very sensible way of “purifying” bitcoin from the money inflation of the FIAT system.
So I haven’t any precise target in terms of dollar price, while I have a precise target in terms of gold price.spoiler alert: it is a multiple of the gold capitalisation.

Well, JJG, I wasn't particularly asking for the most extreme case, but if we get to the one of the most important characteristics that gives BTC value, it is its mobility. The mobility is unprecedented. It is unlimited. I wanted to use this as a symbol. You can literally take BTC to the moon. I therefore said if "psychopath" Musk can build the rockets, the chance that you can get your BTC with you is a million, a trillion times higher than being able to take your gold with you.

The advantages of BTC are just so plain that I sometimes don't understand why people don't get it. They want this physical aspect. If I can't touch it, it is not of value. While in the same time they would invest in an NFT for a piece of art. How is that possible?

Let's try to be a bit more realistic.

I was trying to give some kind of a benefit of the doubt to some kind of a scenario that could play out in which there was no longer internet, electronic communication and/or electricity and/or some kinds of a scenario in which bitcoin would lose all or most of its value due to such hypotheticals playing out and gold would become relevant as some kind of a monetary intermediary.  

I doubt those kinds of scenarios are very likely, and I doubt that spaceships would be a part of such a scenario.. and truly seems stupid for anyone to actually believe that within our lifetimes (even within 100 years absent some kind of strong evidence showing livable systems) any kind of quality of life could be achieved off of this particular planet.


I doubt that it is even very helpful to try to figure out how a variety of possible fringe scenarios might play out in order to attempt to figure out some kind of reasonable allocation in terms of bitcoin versus gold versus whatever else that we might want to invest into, and surely it can be difficult to get allocation matters correct in any specific way, even though there may be ways to have some directional correctness and also preparedness for a variety of possible directional scenarios, without necessarily getting into particulars.. so we should be attempting to prepare for a variety of scenarios, including more likely scenarios and at the same time having some preparedness for outlier fringe scenarios, yet it still seems a bit crazy to put more than 1% preparations into scenarios that may have way less than 1% chances of playing out...yet each of us has to figure out how much resources, time, energy and or value to place in each of a variety of scenarios that might even have fringe chances of playing out.

For Armageddon cases I would rather hold BTC. Can take it with me to the moon just in case the psychopath Elon Musk has the rockets ready. Can't take all the gold with me, but can take billions in BTC with me and the chance that in a nuclear war BTC is recoverable, the chance is much higher than any of my gold is recoverable during my lifetime.

It is pretty interesting how some people do either not understand, or lie about the facts.


I assume that you try to suggest that if Bitcoin rises, gold will rise by a lot. Can you please, I ask you for a last time, last try, have a look at my excel table in the first post? Do you understand why I standardized gold ounces and calculated the multipliers to mBTC? I have paid attention to the fact that I don't just write another copy thread, I wanted to share an observation that made me excited myself and I have never painted that picture so clearly for myself. That is why I did the maths. The fact of the matter is that BTC went thousands and thousands of X while gold did nothing but go sideways.

Now tell me about the simple arithmetic that you are finding to be true, just let us know.

My guess is if gold doubles for whatever reason, BTC will go at least 6x, probably 8x in the same time. Now my real expectation is even more bullish, but to not shy you away from saying something here, I want to try to at least give you another shot to explain your arithmetic (as it is so simple).

Note: talkimg.com seems to be down for the moment. I'll upload it as soon as I found an alternative. Just read my analysis and draw your own arithmetic conclusions.

Listening was valuable in the past, when Bitcoin was not.  So the value of Bitcoin is very high at present and its demand is increasing with time, but gold is a dead asset. Gold has gained only a fraction of what it was in the past, but you'll notice that the price of Bitcoin is averaging more than 100 percent plus every year. Both gold and banks are in the same category, but Bitcoin is much more modern and different from them and is the most powerful digital currency of today. 
With its price steadily increasing and getting older in the future, in just about 15 years, Bitcoin has created a lot of buzz around the world as the best coin in the world today.

You have already made your various arguments, and good for you if you love gold so much that you believe that it deserves any more than 10% the size of your bitcoin holdings, and even 10% may well be too much, and you can have fun staying poor if you are allocating greater amounts than that..

Also, if you are smarter than the bitcoiners and gold pumps while bitcoin stays stagnant, then great on you for being such a smartie pants in your playing with your dead rock that had not only been demonetized but paperized into mostly irrelevancy (if not its own death).

I love this argument exists because its probably bullish for both assets.   Most people are considering neither and the progression away from the status quo of decades has alot further to go before 'full' in any way.

   The world is heavily biased to FIAT and one particular brand of FIAT which is the biggest thing thats going to change.  I do doubt any singular path will become the new alternative and replacement for Dollar.   Even if you thought that, first the situation will fracture and many alternative assets will be used.   Thats my simple take.

Over thousands of years we have had much technological development, Bitcoin is unique but also its part of that process.  The only constant is change, we are and will change but also it wont alter that change has been considerable in the past also.

Its all fair discussion, go back to beginnings of BTC and Im sure it was debated similarly then also.   Why would Satoshi bother if gold is so great, he wasn't any fool and was aware of many details to the events of 2008 before and after, he did bother for good reasons.
   I see the point of gold is that it lasts without needing any central bank its just an element of some worth and characteristic; there is some small use for it and its unique.

  In my opinion its not in competition, ironically an ASIC BTC circuit would use gold most likely.  I dont see the decline of its use as its been unpopular at times previous also but on a long term time frame its always the same; it did arguably fall for most of a decade after peaking in 2011 (also 1981~).
  Karl Marx existed on 82 ounces of gold a year given by an industrialist friend, he is buried in London not far from where they set the world gold price twice daily.  I like simplicity but not absolute where we attempt to bleach out detail; life is alot more interwoven varied and repeating in a pattern beyond the brief generation we represent.

Let me be sincere with you now, I opened my mouth wide for seconds in amazement at what you said, what???

I would have loved it if you backed your claims with some points, perhaps some links and statistics to prove what you said. I won't say much, but let me say this, If Gold is a "dead rock" and is being "demonetized" as you claimed, how come it attracted over $5T in investment this year alone?

I think that I understood and sufficiently responded to your convoluted and misleading point well enough.


You are likely being sarcastic, and I was responding publicly, not to just you, since this is a public thread, and hopefully no one would have misunderstood your earlier point to suggest that any kind of meaningful allocation to gold would be prudent, except perhaps in some exceptional cases.


Yes.  Your version of the truth is to have some fantasy vision of gold, and hopefully, you are not just a little bit more invested into bitcoin, but instead something like not allocating any more than 10% the value of your bitcoin holdings into gold....

So for example, I tend to suggest that beginner investors into bitcoin consider anywhere between 5% and 25% of their overall investment portfolio into bitcoin, and sure they can go outside of that range, but that has been my recommendation since about early to mid 2020, prior to that I recommended 1% to 10% to bitcoin as a starting allocation, and surely each person has to tailor to his own situation so if he is more bullish about bitcoin, then he would invest towards the higher end of the range and if he is less bullish, then he would invest towards the lower end of the range.  In the end, surely any person who has studied bitcoin and/or his situation more would be able to go beyond what I was recommending as a initial starting range to consider.

My assertion is that if a guy had decided to invest around 15% of his investment portfolio into bitcoin, then hopefully no more than 10% of that would be in gold, so his gold holdings would be no more than 1.5% of his total overall investment portfolio.


I think that we are currently working with similar statistics in terms of bitcoin having right around a $1.3 trillion market cap and gold having right around $17 trillion market cap.  You seem to have a different spin on the significance of that, and whatever, you can spin whatever you like.  More or less right now bitcoin has about 1/15th of gold's market cap, yet at the same time bitcoin is likely valued around 1,000x more than gold, so it may well take 50-200 years for the valuation to be more accurately reflected in relative BTC versus gold prices, whether BTC goes up or gold comes down or some combination of the two.


First.  There is no need to bring up shitcoins, and to convolute the point with bitcoin "and crypto" since crypto is largely irrelevant.

Try to stay focused.  We are talking about bitcoin versus gold, so no need to deviate into gobbledee gook talk.


If you cannot recognize that bitcoin is already the superior asset and that value is going to continue to gravitate into bitcoin with the likely loss of more and more importance of value being stored in gold, then too bad for you to be failing/refusing to recognize, appreciate the more valuable asset (namely bitcoin) so that you would be able to allocate appropriately into bitcoin and mostly lessen or minimize your exposure to gold.

Yet, whatever, you can do what you like if you would like to stay allocated to gold then have fun with that... You may or may not be able to at least outperform the dollar, while at the same time your lunch will continue to get eaten by bitcoin if you know how to measure the value of your gold allocation as compared with the value of your bitcoin allocation.


Are you trying to convince guys here to allocate to gold?  Just in case gold might be able to pull a rabbit out of a hat?

You've been registered on the forum since 2015, so have you been able to figure out what bitcoin is in the last 9-ish years?  Do you think that governments, institutions and/or individuals or going to keep investing into gold when bitcoin is superior in terms of various money aspects?  Bitcoin is better in regards to verifiability, transportability, scarcity, divisibility, costs associated with third parties and other aspects too.   

You seem deluded if you are still on the gold train, or maybe you just need to spend a bit more time trying to study and/or figure out bitcoin - which more and more people are new to bitcoin and they are figuring out that bitcoin is amongst the best, if not the best of monies ever known to mankind, so even if it might take a bit of time for value to gravitate into bitcoin (as compared with other assets, including but not limited to gold), the process of value gravitating into bitcoin is ongoing, so best if you try to recognize it and get ahead of it, instead of denying that it is taking place.


As far as you know, you are praying for the old ideas to persist, even though a better monetary unit is here and even though many of the countries (big and small) are also getting more and more and more involved in bitcoin.. sometimes overtly and sometimes covertly.


Good luck with those old arguments and perspectives, you are going to likely need some luck when you have that kind of a perspective..,. but luck is not likely even on your side if you believe that you should be allocating into gold rather than bitcoin.. or even allocating any more than 10% of your assets into gold as compared with what you have into bitcoin.


In regards to bitcoin, monetary premium is the ONLY one that really matters.  Sure gold has some value in the physical world, but that is hardly what gives gold its value... and when it comes to monetary premium, bitcoin is way more efficient than a lot of assets in terms of how bitcoin is mostly only monetary premium as compared with other less efficient ways that value is held, whether we are referring to gold and its industrial use or we are referring to various other ways that excess value is held in residential properties, equities and in other ways in part because various kinds of fiats are ongoingly debased so people search where to hold their monetary premium so that their monetary value does not get debased away from them if they were to hold such value in cash.


It is not as good as bitcoin.  Sure it might do better than cash.. perhaps? but it won't do better than bitcoin in terms of being a hedge against the debasement of the dollar (and other fiat).  Try moving $10 million in gold versus bitcoin... also same thing is true with going across the borders with $20k.. try it with gold and see how it works out for you.


Where have you been in the last 10 years?  It is already happening, it continues to happen and it will continue to happen.

You can be blind to the matter, or you can try to get ahead of the matter.  The writing is on the wall, and sure, you can choose to ignore it and continue to pump gold as if it were to even have close to a chance as compared with bitcoin.. and you likely are not going to fare as well if you are overly allocating into gold as compared to allocating in bitcoin.. and personally, I think you are nearly completely wasting your time since bitcoin is around 1,000x better than gold, yet it is ONLY around 1/15th the price of gold right now in terms of market cap... so you make your choice about whether to do something now or to wait until the difference in value shrinks more. .and where bitcoin takes its rightful place of having a market value that is around 1,000x greater than gold.

I didn't say that the appeal of Gold has come to an end but it's nearing the end of it's popularity like it has been in the past

Sure, gold is a valuable financial asset and i do not argue the fact that a lot of people still sort after it and even though bitcoin has become a developing asset that will take over from Gold but it is understandable that there are people who will still choose Gold over bitcoin maybe due to affordability or just a normal love for Gold than bitcoin and moreover since there are people who could not afford Gold that's also same way there will also be people who may not afford bitcoin.

Bitcoin has shown good moves in recent years so it does not matter how long it will take to be considered as the best investment ever even though it's still developing.

To be fair, bitcoin is a worthy competitor to gold but it is still too early to say that the appeal of gold or the era of gold is over and now it is the era of bitcoin and crypto.

We should be realistic that bitcoin is still not as popular as gold, and gold is still the top choice of governments and major investors. As far as I know, countries like Russia, China and many others are still buying gold in large quantities, not bitcoin. That shows they still value gold more than any other asset for national reserves. Moreover, the demand for gold is not limited to being an asset or investment but it is also applied in many industries. So I think gold may no longer be an attractive investment but it is still a safe haven option, a hedge against future inflation.


As for bitcoin, it is considered the best growth asset ever, so it can surpass gold, but that will not happen in the next 1 or 2 years. We need more time for bitcoin to take over and become the best investment.

One of the things that is inevitable in life is revolution because that is what keeps the world advancing so i think the era when gold was seen as the most valuable asset is coming to an end since bitcoin has now surfaced and bitcoin will also continue to be in dominance till maybe something else evolve and also subdue the value of bitcoin but for now i doubt if there is anything than can contest in worth and values as bitcoin. Gold has been in dominance since 600 BCE so it's time for it to give way to the greatest invention of our time (bitcoin).

Buddy, gold is a dead rock, and it's getting demonetized, because it's no longer the best money. Back in the gold standard, and during the 20th century, it was the best money, but not anymore. It's not just Bitcoin, it's the fact that technology advanced, and we can extract gold much easier and in larger sums than before. This factor makes it less good as a money.

But even without that in mind, Bitcoin has been rising by more than 100% every year on average, for the last few years, while gold has remained the same more or less. That, alone, should answer your question.

For starters, you misrepresented the point, if you reread what you replied to from the beginning, you will realise that I wasn't talking about ROI possibility but the market capitalization, Gold is compressed to avoid inflation, so it can never beat Bitcoin in ROI with its current structure.

Nevertheless, it's my choice to put all my money in Gold but my experience in investment will not allow me, and a big Thank You for that advice, you deserve it. And if you must know, I invest more in Bitcoin than Gold for the higher ROI possibility (simple wisdom). But that will NEVER blind my eyes to the truth, unlike many others.

And when it comes to the asset that won in market capitalization, Gold has it, which was the genesis of this discussion unless you have different statistics from the one known by the world.

Through the years, we have had similar gold pumping and bitcoin naysaying discussions and the gold holders have not done too well as compared with bitcoin, so sometimes it is surprising to see those same largely debunked arguments reviving themselves.

Good luck with your gold investment (relative to bitcoin) you are going to need it.

Hopefully, you are not so short-sighted as to be putting more than 10% of your value into gold as compared with what you put into bitcoin (and even 10% relative to bitcoin might be a bit high), yet of course, you are free to allocate your time, energy and value however you like and see how it fares for you.

Nothing reads 14x in what you replied to, it's all about the market capitalization of Gold and Bitcoin. If Bitcoin rises 14x, will Gold remain the same? It's a simple arithmetic.

Really? That's a misconception, over $12T worth of Gold has been mined so far. But let's pretend such a huge worth has not been mined, don't you think more people will still prefer Gold because it is a name with physical representation than Bitcoin which is entirely virtual?

https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/market-primer/gold-market-primer-market-size-and-structure.

You have not presented any reason why both gold and bitcoin is smart and/or why the holding any gold is actually smart, especially when bitcoin does almost everything that gold does, except better.  Perhaps the ONLY reason to hold gold is for Armageddon purposes, or perhaps if there is already a good gold network in your geography... .. yet there maybe quite a bit of prudence, even for the guy choosing to hold some gold to actually mostly move over to bitcoin with 90-95% of his value in bitcoin and perhaps at most 5% to 10% the value of his bitcoin holding might be permissible to hold in gold for Armageddon or whatever outsided scenario that is anticipated in which bitcoin might not be a possibility.


Huh?  Gold had largely been stagnant and losing value in the past 13 years or so, and surely in the past year, Gold has shown some life, but still does not necessarily mean that gold is a good place to put value in ways that bitcoin is not going to be better than gold.

If you had not noticed bitcoin is around 1,000x better than gold or perhaps more than that in terms of various aspects of moneyness, including but not limited to verifiability, portability, scarcity, divisibility, ability to use without third party interference and/or great costs and some other features too.


Gold will prevail how?  You mean continue to survive for a while during the time that institutions, governments and individuals are recognizing and appreciating that bitcoin is better, not only in terms of bitcoin already having had increased in value stupendously compared with gold and that the trend of bitcoin eating gold's lunch is going to be continuing, and yeah, sure gold will survive and flail compared with bitcoin, and maybe gold will do better than the dollar, though the dollar is not a very good measuring instrument.. .are you wanting to say gold is going to do as well as bitcoin in terms of hookers, lambos, blow and other real world goods, services and properties (such as real estate)?  I have my doubts, especially if you might consider pricing gold in terms of bitcoin rather than getting distracted into poor measuring sticks such as pricing in dollars (or other fiat).


yes they can.  Gold is inferior to bitcoin, and bitcoin has been eating gold's lunch and will likely continue to eat gold's lunch in terms of monetary premium kinds of measurements... but sure, you can choose to live in a fantasy and act as if gold is holding its own and blah blah blah, when it is not.  It is not holding its own in any material, meaningful and/or substantial way in comparison to bitcoin.


Gold is intrinsic because it is physical?  Get real... that is not sufficient, even though gold might will serve better than bitcoin during certain kinds of Armageddon scenarios that might end up happening.. perhaps.


Good luck with your distraction into believing that your gold is going to come even close to giving you as much stability and/or appreciation in the coming years.. and yeah, maybe you might want to discount me for considering bitcoin having more pumpamentals in terms bitcoin being in early stages of adoption, and sure yeah there is some unfairness in that, yet if you have some kind of clue about what bitcoin is, then you better be careful if you are allocating much more than 10% of your networth or  portfolio value into gold as compared with bitcoin... ... so whatever allocation that you have gold/bitcoin, you should be considering no more than 10% of the value of your bitcoin into gold.. but hey whatever you can do what you like and have fun staying poor in terms of bitcoin quite likely continuing to eat gold's lunch in terms oof the more sound money and the Gresham's law type principles in which the soundest money is spent last (which happens to be bitcoin and people are increasingly figuring out bitcoin in regards to its superiority to gold.. it is not just a "young person's thing" as you are trying to dismissively and erroneously framing bitcoin in such ways).