Topic: Bitcoin VS Oil VS Russia VS Ukraine (Read 364 times)

Part of the oil price movements (at least the short term ones) is panic and part of it is supply shortages. It is not just Russian oil either, for example I believe it was last week when the Saudi production (supply 12% of world's oil) was ceased when their facilities were attacked and burned for 4 days straight. Of course this news was kept silent by mass media censoring to prevent further panic.

It must be remembered that having a currency that no one can control, nor the government is very attractive, especially when emergency measures will not affect it.
It seems that this is what prompted the Russian invasion of Ukraine to encourage many Russians to store and move money in cryptocurrencies.
looks like the same thing has happened in ukraine where they are also doing the same thing, and information from the ancient crypto exchange there has been a 3x surge in daily trading.

This indicates that in an emergency situation, crypto is indeed a way out to ensure that there is no great fear by using fiat in other countries. so the need for crypto is a way out so that there is no pressure that can affect what will be done.

In fact, the trend of rising world oil prices was seen before the Russian invasion of Ukraine took place, but this has become a trigger for an increase again and is accelerating. If you look at the price of Brent oil on the ICE market, it touched the price of US$ 100/barrel, although it closed at US$ 97.93/barrel.

it should also be remembered that global oil supply is disrupted. Russia's production is around 11 million barrels per day. around 10% of the world's oil production, so if this war continues it will trigger the prices of all commodities will also be affected and will increase as well.

because if the price of oil increases, the means of transportation will also be affected and that will result in global triggering that others will also be affected, especially clearly the food commodity which is very uncontrollable for the economy, making it more difficult for global economic recovery as well as inflationary pressure in the world. .

So everyone's role is to be able to prevent the war there from continuing and be able to sit in peace talks, but don't make the atmosphere more crowded by intervening by participating in the battle.
there are still many ways that can be taken to not be prolonged, firstly not participating in the war but bringing it into negotiations to find a good solution.

Without a doubt Putin is not going to like this, we have talked at length about this, governments like the idea of using Bitcoin to ignore the sanctions that are used against them, however they hate this ability can be gotten by everyone and that people can do the same against them, Russia may tolerate this at the moment as they need money circulating in their economy regardless of the source, but once the war ends I would not be surprised to see them change their posture and try to ban or to heavily regulate this market.

As said bitcoin is completely different from the stocks and other forms of investments, but I feel it also have some impact. Whatever the market, they'll be tied together in some means. Maybe the impact felt upon vary.

During the beginning days of Russia's invasion on Ukraine bitcoin market crashed, same is with the stocks. Further the price bounced which is unexpected. This is where bitcoin differ from stocks. For now amidst the war and other global incidents bitcoin is on the good move with more countries legalizing its usage.

Well, If they will use Bitcoin just like how we use fiat currency, It wouldn't really make enough impact of Btc price. Not unless If most of the Russians decides to hold it.
As you noticed, when donations were pouring to help Ukraine, there was a small rally of price but I guess after they have spent it (to military resources per speculations/ I don't know If that's true) Btc went back a few thousand dollars.
I mean, its not really a bad thing If they use Bitcoin as a currency, because we are supposed to be doing that in the first place. However, that will be a good mass adoption anyway.

If you're using a non-custodial wallet, there's nothing to worried about.  No one can compensate your wallet and no one can access it except you.
There's nothing the government does on the decentralized currency most especially Bitcoin, it might have a slight effect on the Bitcoin price but as per see, it was a good effect because as we saw Bitcoin price increased despite a war.  Even Rusia and Ukraine used Bitcoin as their alternative currency.

It's not right to compare Bitcoin to stocks like Oil, Bitcoin is digital while those you mentioned above it's totally different.

Too late really, there  is no great evidence China can source any great patch of oil from that area vs their vast requirements.   If they were able to do frack drilling and recover oil quickly in some clever technology use perhaps but this is an entire industry and skillset that has to be built up.  People underestimate the capital resources, the people and machinery required to invest long term in order to get back a steady commodity whatever that might be.  
  For example Venezuela has greater oil reserves proven over any other country in the world even Saudi Arabia however they do not have a simple way to extract it at profit.  Its dirty oil full of sulphur, sour where as Saudi has the sweet oil and with maybe the lowest cost to extract over anywhere in the world, their cost to access their established oil reserves is very low and this matters.   Right now the price is high and Venezuela should have some ability to produce but its not simple for them and it wont be simple for China it'll take them many decades even if they found the oil tomorrow its not available to them as such.   China will partner with Russia for the oil, thats the path of least resistance.

They have other options already, other than crypto, some of their citizens are already opening Chinese bank accounts. So crypto is really not their first choice here but other fiat currency like Chinese Yuan. It will be a long recovery for them and right now, they are not yet starting as the war is still not over. So yes, we don't know what will happen after this war because we don't know yet the outcome of their negotiations. It will depend on the agreement of both countries. And from that point, we will know where they will be heading to recovery.

It is a good alternative for people in Russia to hold Bitcoin when their local currency is going down the drains due to restrictions but what i am worried is that the government now knows the power of a decentralized cryptocurrency and they understand that the sanctions do not work like they wanted and i doubt whether they will come out with any kind of legislation to counter that.

Many whales are active traders so they have to use exchanges to make their moves, however I guess that right now probably whales have taken a break from trying to obtain some additional profits as it would be too risky for them to try to do so if they are Russian, after all even if exchanges so far have decided to not sanction users coming from Russia it is difficult to know how long this is going to remain the case and if they change their mind and you have money with them then all of that money will be quite difficult to recover.

The effect of the war on bitcoin may not be felt instantly, it is a gradual process but I think it will have a little change as the time go because now that Russia has made it a legal status, this will encourage hodling in bitcoin , rubie is dropping and Russians don't have easy access to dollar this can push more Russians to convert to bitcoin and do their transaction because it is decentralised and no restriction.

They can do anything about economic sanctions, products, oil and so on, but they can't penalize, crypto exchanges/wallets and so on, that exist today.

They have the right to embargo and sanction human needs ranging from natural resources to infrastructure, they have control over all that, not with crypto, that's the advantage of crypto that we know today.

The bottom line: you don't have to worry about Bitcoin changes, Bitcoin doesn't have a big impact on the war between Russia and Ukraine, you can still enjoy the services of a crypto exchange in your local area.

The first effect I saw was when Ukraine was accepting Bitcoin as donations. That increased BTC price to $43k, not accurate, somewhere that number.
But then, it needs to be spend to provide the needs of the people affected by the war and so it went back minus $4k or more.
What I want to see is for it to go back up due to the value of Ruble going south. They will buy other commodities, exchange it for another currency, or cryptocurrencies to retain its value. But it's not happening yet so they might be purchasing other types of investments.

Even before the wars happen, people already know how to use a BTC but the wars can lead for more people to use BTC. It is nice if we have a multi currency not just the only one that we use right now because it can be use on different situations.

The wars again have prove it. Fiat currency are nearly useless but thankfully we have BTC and that continue the operation. Ukraine donations also accept dot and ETH, I have no problems with dot but I am more concerned with ETH. What if there are new people that use this coin and we all know that the fees in ETH is still high, will this disappoint them and they will think that cryptos are only for the rich? hmm...

The scarcity came from the sanctions on Ukraine so western countries are facing consequences now, but China is taking this opportunity and started buying or made a deal with Russia to get the oil from them so the effect is going to be on USD which will result in hike of USD inflation rate. The only sector who didn't get back from Russia is cryptocurrency exchanges so yes government may ask them to ban Russia but we don't know yet what will happen.

It is unfortunate that people need these extreme circumstances to understand why something like bitcoin is necessary, both Russian and Ukraine citizens that would like nothing more but to remain at peace with each other had their lives turned upside down one day just because Putin decided to invade Ukraine and now they are paying the consequences of those actions they had nothing to do with, and if they had bitcoin then a great deal of their economic troubles would not have happened and could leave their countries knowing they can leave with their full wealth and that no one can confiscate that wealth against their will.

and with all of that this means one thing that the effect of this war hasn't certain if will be beneficial or distracting and of course as of now there are still no great or bad effect to the market so we are looking for at least longer chances?
I'm afraid that in the end of everything we in cryptospace will suffer more thanw hat other business and market would be.

This is brilliant because sanctions can also be placed on exchanges and this will end up affecting we individuals not country as a whole

To me, the war and the use of BTC in the region opens the perspective of having a multi-currency in the real world. Ukraine donations accept DOT and ETH too. People will start using any cryptocurrency if they are going to be accepted by businesses and we already witness countries starting from El Salvador.

The war in Ukraine just shows how much oil can be used to see who controls the world and we could see how the US did in the previous decades and how Russia is about to do it and how China is also about to dig oil under the South China Sea.