Bitcoin vs SegWit2x - after split price predictions

exstasie

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Quote from: Silberman on September 03, 2017, 01:40:09 PM

Quote from: exstasie on August 31, 2017, 04:37:15 PM

Quote from: Silberman on August 31, 2017, 04:29:58 PM

The hard fork that is coming does not have the strength to kill bitcoin but I have no doubt that if the fork does comes to happen this is going to affect the price in a deep way since most miners are backing this new coin and if all of them move to this new coin then that could make bitcoin confirmations very slow for a very long time until the difficulty gets adjusted.

There's multiple possibilities if a super majority of miners continues backing Segwit2x and moves forward with the hard fork. Many supporters of legacy BTC have maintained that difficulty will eventually readjust on the legacy chain, even if the hash rate drops significantly. That's not necessarily true. It's entirely possible, if the vast majority of miners switch to Segwit2x, that difficulty will never readjust on the legacy chain.

In that case, those who do not wish to migrate to Segwit2x may be forced to switch to a hard fork of their own-- one which either has an emergency difficulty drop to get the network stable again, or a POW algorithm change.

That's the worst case scenario: a dead legacy chain and two altcoins.......

Wow thanks for the great info, then that means that the hard fork possibly coming in November does have the capacity to damage or even destroy bitcoin, not even in my wildest dreams I would have thought of that, it is like a nightmare that something like bitcoin that we have been waiting for a long time can be killed by the greed of the miners.

Remember, miners are heavily invested stakeholders. They have entrenched interests, so they will flex their muscles if different protocol changes will affect their prospective incomes.

However, they are also heavily invested in Bitcoin's success. I don't think many miners (if any) mine simply to dump for current market prices. They only sell to cover overhead and otherwise are investing for the long term.

So, miners don't want a split. The scenario above is a worst-case scenario. But it's also one that some Bitcoin developers (like Luke Dash Jr.) are already prepare for, code-wise. The problem is that no one can predict future demand for either chain. So if miners charge forward with a hard fork with bad information about user demand, they could end up causing a messy network split.

Silberman

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Quote from: exstasie on August 31, 2017, 04:37:15 PM

Quote from: Silberman on August 31, 2017, 04:29:58 PM

The hard fork that is coming does not have the strength to kill bitcoin but I have no doubt that if the fork does comes to happen this is going to affect the price in a deep way since most miners are backing this new coin and if all of them move to this new coin then that could make bitcoin confirmations very slow for a very long time until the difficulty gets adjusted.

There's multiple possibilities if a super majority of miners continues backing Segwit2x and moves forward with the hard fork. Many supporters of legacy BTC have maintained that difficulty will eventually readjust on the legacy chain, even if the hash rate drops significantly. That's not necessarily true. It's entirely possible, if the vast majority of miners switch to Segwit2x, that difficulty will never readjust on the legacy chain.

In that case, those who do not wish to migrate to Segwit2x may be forced to switch to a hard fork of their own-- one which either has an emergency difficulty drop to get the network stable again, or a POW algorithm change.

That's the worst case scenario: a dead legacy chain and two altcoins.......

Wow thanks for the great info, then that means that the hard fork possibly coming in November does have the capacity to damage or even destroy bitcoin, not even in my wildest dreams I would have thought of that, it is like a nightmare that something like bitcoin that we have been waiting for a long time can be killed by the greed of the miners.

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: exstasie on September 02, 2017, 04:42:20 AM

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on September 01, 2017, 02:28:47 PM

If there won't be any replay protection, miners would risk to waste their power on useless coin. This leads to next predictions: if replay protections will be introduced, we can expect to see some 30-60% switching to B2X at least for short term; if there will be no protection, this number will be much lower, around 10-30%. In both scenarios, Bitcoin shouldn't suffer much, worst case we'll drop 25% and than recover in a few days to previous levels.

You seem very optimistic. How about a 51% attack with a super majority of miners? That's what a hard fork with no replay protection is. Between SPV wallets and exchanges like Coinbase and services like Bitpay, most Bitcoin users would be following the hard fork chain.

After all, most Bitcoin users do not run a full node; they default to a service (like the many signed onto the NYA) or they run a non-validating node. If it comes down to a super majority of miners and no replay protection, we are facing a very messy situation. Undecided

51% attack means attacker is mining valid blocks with malicious intent - either a chain reorg to make a double spending or mining empty blocks to stop the network. This means that even full nodes are affected by it, while with hard fork full nodes just reject invalid blocks. SPV clients, if configured properly, also detect chain splits. Online services hold the power to decide for their users what chain to follow, which can be very damaging to either chain, but big exchanges would quickly suffer legal consequences if they'll try to force unwanted chain on their users. So, this kind of attack by hard fork is not as scary as it may sound, and it's definitely not the same as 51% attack.

makishart

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Quote from: Rinaze on September 01, 2017, 08:53:17 AM

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on August 10, 2017, 06:46:18 PM

Quote from: maokoto on August 10, 2017, 05:42:04 PM

Another split? probably it will happen as with Bitcoin Cash. A good name would be just segwit2xcoin.

I am beginning to think people like to produce split in order to create opportunities to earn a little from the forked coin, rather than to seriously produce an alternative.

I think this will be much more complicated, because devs of SegWit2x call their coin Bitcoin, unlike Bcash who at least honestly distinguished itself from Bitcoin.

People who run online wallets will have power to decide for their users which chain is Bitcoin, and it can be huge. For example, Coinbase is a part of NYA, and in worst case scenario they will push 2x as Bitcoin and refuse to support Core chain, so suddenly all their customers will only have 2x coins.

There was a huge volatility around Jul 20th when the situation with SegWit was uncertain, and this might repeat in November.

Who are the developers behind Segwitx2?

You can read the first paragraph from this article.
https://medium.com/@jimmysong/segwit2x-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-2mb-hard-fork-27749e1544ce

That already explained about the history and purpose of the segwit 2x and it seems to be a reliable information.

The segwit 2x will give the more improvement to the bitcoin.

krizniq

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Quote from: freedomsr40 on September 02, 2017, 03:59:53 PM

My strategy will be very clear: hold bitcoin for the split and wait for the airdrop.

Then wait till the dust will be settled down then see which side I will pick.

I highly doubt that combined value will be much lower after some time.

funny.... but fyi there will be no airdrop....

freedomsr40

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My strategy will be very clear: hold bitcoin for the split and wait for the airdrop.

Then wait till the dust will be settled down then see which side I will pick.

I highly doubt that combined value will be much lower after some time.

exstasie

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on September 01, 2017, 02:28:47 PM

If there won't be any replay protection, miners would risk to waste their power on useless coin. This leads to next predictions: if replay protections will be introduced, we can expect to see some 30-60% switching to B2X at least for short term; if there will be no protection, this number will be much lower, around 10-30%. In both scenarios, Bitcoin shouldn't suffer much, worst case we'll drop 25% and than recover in a few days to previous levels.

You seem very optimistic. How about a 51% attack with a super majority of miners? That's what a hard fork with no replay protection is. Between SPV wallets and exchanges like Coinbase and services like Bitpay, most Bitcoin users would be following the hard fork chain.

After all, most Bitcoin users do not run a full node; they default to a service (like the many signed onto the NYA) or they run a non-validating node. If it comes down to a super majority of miners and no replay protection, we are facing a very messy situation. Undecided

hatshepsut93

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Now it looks more and more like SegWit2x fork is falling apart and will be very similar to BCH in execution - mining for the sake of difficulty manipulation and quick profit. This will require some exchanges to accept B2X coins, otherwise no one will mine them, which means that SegWit2x devs will have to install replay protection - no one is that crazy to seriously switch to B2X and treat it as if it was Bitcoin. If there won't be any replay protection, miners would risk to waste their power on useless coin. This leads to next predictions: if replay protections will be introduced, we can expect to see some 30-60% switching to B2X at least for short term; if there will be no protection, this number will be much lower, around 10-30%. In both scenarios, Bitcoin shouldn't suffer much, worst case we'll drop 25% and than recover in a few days to previous levels.

Rinaze

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on August 10, 2017, 06:46:18 PM

Quote from: maokoto on August 10, 2017, 05:42:04 PM

Another split? probably it will happen as with Bitcoin Cash. A good name would be just segwit2xcoin.

I am beginning to think people like to produce split in order to create opportunities to earn a little from the forked coin, rather than to seriously produce an alternative.

I think this will be much more complicated, because devs of SegWit2x call their coin Bitcoin, unlike Bcash who at least honestly distinguished itself from Bitcoin.

People who run online wallets will have power to decide for their users which chain is Bitcoin, and it can be huge. For example, Coinbase is a part of NYA, and in worst case scenario they will push 2x as Bitcoin and refuse to support Core chain, so suddenly all their customers will only have 2x coins.

There was a huge volatility around Jul 20th when the situation with SegWit was uncertain, and this might repeat in November.

Who are the developers behind Segwitx2?

exstasie

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Quote from: BitHodler on August 31, 2017, 07:21:11 PM

Quote from: gentlemand on August 31, 2017, 05:08:47 PM

https://www.coindesk.com/f2pool-reneges-mining-pool-pulls-segwit2x-support-hard-fork/

The potential beginning of the end of forkageddon. If it was from someone a tad less trollish it would be more reassuring, but between now and November I believe more people will fall away even if this statement is a lark.

I seriously hope that now the Antgang have their Bitcoin Cash to focus on, that they will point less priority to the 2MB hard fork that they were initially agreeing with.

One thing to consider, here. If it turns out in the next couple months that Bitcoin Cash isn't viable (e.g. demand dries up, value plummets, and it becomes unprofitable to mine), then they will be pushing for another hard fork.

Quote from: BitHodler on August 31, 2017, 07:21:11 PM

As we speak, there is absolutely no need for that fork to kick in. Once SegWit usage starts to pick up, and far more transactions start fitting in the same 1MB blocks, even the big blockers must realize that a fork isn't needed.

The bolded is exactly what they're trying to capitalize on with all the network spam and FUD about Bitcoin Cash recently. And they're not alone. Bitpay just started charging a network fee on top of the invoice amount. I just paid an extra 0.000686 BTC. I don't know when this started, but it was within the last month and this information page was posted 3 days ago: https://support.bitpay.com/hc/en-us/articles/115002990803-Why-Am-I-Being-Charged-an-Additional-Network-Cost-on-My-BitPay-Invoice-

BitHodler

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Quote from: gentlemand on August 31, 2017, 05:08:47 PM

https://www.coindesk.com/f2pool-reneges-mining-pool-pulls-segwit2x-support-hard-fork/

The potential beginning of the end of forkageddon. If it was from someone a tad less trollish it would be more reassuring, but between now and November I believe more people will fall away even if this statement is a lark.

I seriously hope that now the Antgang have their Bitcoin Cash to focus on, that they will point less priority to the 2MB hard fork that they were initially agreeing with.

As we speak, there is absolutely no need for that fork to kick in. Once SegWit usage starts to pick up, and far more transactions start fitting in the same 1MB blocks, even the big blockers must realize that a fork isn't needed.

If there happens to be a chain split, it will once again be something that has only one motive, and that's the greed factor that plays an important role. Greed so strong, that they don't care when Bitcoin might potentially suffer.

It's beyond insane how miners have reached such a hostile ideology. I expect a heavy load of trolling and fud to happen in the runup to the date this fork is supposed to happen. Lips sealed

gentlemand

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Welt Am Draht

https://www.coindesk.com/f2pool-reneges-mining-pool-pulls-segwit2x-support-hard-fork/

The potential beginning of the end of forkageddon. If it was from someone a tad less trollish it would be more reassuring, but between now and November I believe more people will fall away even if this statement is a lark.

exstasie

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Quote from: Silberman on August 31, 2017, 04:29:58 PM

The hard fork that is coming does not have the strength to kill bitcoin but I have no doubt that if the fork does comes to happen this is going to affect the price in a deep way since most miners are backing this new coin and if all of them move to this new coin then that could make bitcoin confirmations very slow for a very long time until the difficulty gets adjusted.

There's multiple possibilities if a super majority of miners continues backing Segwit2x and moves forward with the hard fork. Many supporters of legacy BTC have maintained that difficulty will eventually readjust on the legacy chain, even if the hash rate drops significantly. That's not necessarily true. It's entirely possible, if the vast majority of miners switch to Segwit2x, that difficulty will never readjust on the legacy chain.

In that case, those who do not wish to migrate to Segwit2x may be forced to switch to a hard fork of their own-- one which either has an emergency difficulty drop to get the network stable again, or a POW algorithm change.

That's the worst case scenario: a dead legacy chain and two altcoins.......

Silberman

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Quote from: snowdropfore on August 18, 2017, 10:04:09 PM

hard fork will not kill bitcoin ,so calm down ,we will get another coin just as BCH

The hard fork that is coming does not have the strength to kill bitcoin but I have no doubt that if the fork does comes to happen this is going to affect the price in a deep way since most miners are backing this new coin and if all of them move to this new coin then that could make bitcoin confirmations very slow for a very long time until the difficulty gets adjusted.

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: krizniq on August 26, 2017, 02:16:47 PM

Quote from: snowdropfore on August 18, 2017, 10:04:09 PM

hard fork will not kill bitcoin ,so calm down ,we will get another coin just as BCH

november fork will not give u any new coin, it's replay protected (if i understood it correctly)

Replay protection means that chains are separated, like BTC and BCH. SegWit2x won't have it, so when you spend BTC or 2x coin, the same transaction might be broadcasted to the other chain. Although recently Jeff Garzik said he will add optional replay protection, so we might be able to spend forked coins without losing BTC. There are also methods to split your coins by yourself, by sending locked transactions, adjusting fees or using freshly mined coins. But dealing with 2x coin will probably be harder and riskier than BCH, so even fewer people will be dumping them while preserving their BTC.

sam53

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Quote from: krizniq on August 26, 2017, 02:16:47 PM

Quote from: snowdropfore on August 18, 2017, 10:04:09 PM

hard fork will not kill bitcoin ,so calm down ,we will get another coin just as BCH

november fork will not give u any new coin, it's replay protected (if i understood it correctly)

Haha, he thinks we will receive new coin like SegWit in August, do that just make the faith of investor and trader in Bitcoin decrease more. Because they will understand very easy for create new "Bitcoin" and the value of it very high, different from the original definition.

krizniq

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Quote from: snowdropfore on August 18, 2017, 10:04:09 PM

hard fork will not kill bitcoin ,so calm down ,we will get another coin just as BCH

november fork will not give u any new coin, it's replay protected (if i understood it correctly)

Silberman

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Quote from: Vishnu.Reang on August 15, 2017, 11:29:12 AM

It was easy to predict what would happen after the Bitcoin / Bitcoin Cash split. Because most of the users, exchanges and the developers were against Bitcoin Cash. But it will be difficult to predict about the split in November. We are still unsure about the level of support for Bitcoin Core and Bitcoin 2x. I want Bitcoin 2x to prevail in the end, but things are very fuzzy.

I still think that bitcoin is going to prevail, it seems most of the users are still aligned with the vision of the core team of developers, so at the end it does not matter the amount of hash power and money that segwit2x has if the customers are not moving to this new coin with them then they will have to return to the original bitcoin and I think that is what is going to happen.

snowdropfore

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hard fork will not kill bitcoin ,so calm down ,we will get another coin just as BCH

Golftech

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Quote from: DrGuns4Hands on August 18, 2017, 09:16:24 PM

i read some article regarding this and they're saying that it won't affect the bitcoin price because people just shock on split that's why they sell their bitcoin that's the reason why bitcoin price fell down but when they notice that bitcoin won't be affected on the split they decided to buy bitcoin again that's why bitcoin price today was $4k because the demand is raising also.

Well maybe it will affect in a good way just like what happen to this soft fork maybe most people already learned about what happen last Aug 1 and they will not do the same mistakes again, lots of speculation though but let's just wait and see it with own eyes if what change it will be done with bitcoin value and services.

Topic: Bitcoin vs SegWit2x - after split price predictions (Read 5440 times)