Bitcoin Whale says bitcoin prices could fall post the halving event. - page 2.

gentlemand

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on April 28, 2020, 01:36:50 PM

in 2016, it sorta was priced in. the market dumped pretty hard right around the halving, then kept dumping for a month afterwards. something like a 40% drop all told.

my take is the halving as an event can be priced in, just like that. but the long term supply effects that will be felt over the coming years---that can't be effectively priced in this early. in that way, a lot of us are talking about two different things.

You articulated it better than me. That's what I was clawing towards.

I assume these people are talking long term rather than short term but perhaps they didn't make it very clear. I don't expect anything other than a pump and dump in the next few months myself. If there isn't then it'll be a pleasant surprise.

joinfree

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it's very likely to fall right after the halving because by that time the hype would have died down and the rush of investors that came in before the halving will go down once they don't see any major increase. Unfortunately this is going to be the fate of bitcoin post halving because countries are still on lockdown and economic activities are close to halt. No money means no investment into assets like bitcoin.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: gentlemand on April 28, 2020, 05:52:14 AM

I don't ever believe the 'priced in' crew. They said the exact same thing about previous ones along with oldies but goldies like 'mining death spiral'.

in 2016, it sorta was priced in. the market dumped pretty hard right around the halving, then kept dumping for a month afterwards. something like a 40% drop all told.

my take is the halving as an event can be priced in, just like that. but the long term supply effects that will be felt over the coming years---that can't be effectively priced in this early. in that way, a lot of us are talking about two different things.

STT

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Very reasonable, timeless advice is buy the rumour sell the news. This is a certain protocol change but it has that dynamic I think, the speculation is how market responds to block reward change. My own simple take is that any reaction is more like year to year not anything immediate, accumulate not react in actual supply and demand. So the POV of OP article is quite fair.

Right this moment, price is staying above 2 day average which should be marked as very strong action while it is maintained. A bigger deal is the weekly movement, with 7400 the rough week average, right above us is the 200 day average and I would guess we circle this for this month end. So possibly we can return to 7400 having reached the 8000 mark, if people take profits that is.

sunsilk

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It's understandable that with the last halving that I've witnessed, price didn't do that much after the event. And then we know what happened a year and few months after (2017).

Just don't be affected by their words and follow the plan that you have been set even before the halving. If you're a holder, just set yourself and be prepared for the best and the possibility of what they are saying. It's an opinion so the reaction will depend on how you take the situation, there's also the logic that the crowd is saying they're bullish so it's kind of fearing to know that as well. But despite that, I'm still bullish but not of that immediately with the exact time halving is done.

Findingnemo

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Whales will moves the prices in the opposite direction of everyone thinking so there is possibility of happening this but yet no one can confirm this.Even though if the price fell after the halving it won't take too much time to get recovered from the price fall.

el kaka22

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They are right, why do you think just because bitcoin has a halving the price should go up right away.

Look we all know what the halving is, the amount of bitcoins mined per day would drop from 1800 bitcoins per day to 900 bitcoins per day, so we have the data that we are looking for, which means at the very best scenario if we assume all the 1800 bitcoins that are mined every day gets sold (I doubt it, some of it definitely gets kept at the wallets) that means we are going to have 900 bitcoins less sold on the market. Looking at the volumes of bitcoins everything, there is really no way 900 bitcoins less per day could make a change on right at the spot. It is definitely a long term thing but not a right away thing. So, they are kind of right and I agree with them.

AakZaki

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Even though Whale says the price of Bitcoin will fall the way they want, but remember the miners will not stand still for it.
According to calculations if the current price of Bitcoin falls below $ 4000 it is certain that the Miner Algo Sha-256 ecosystem has suffered losses.
Especially after halving occurs, the smaller the block.

If then the price falls as Whale said, Will the Whales send their Bitcoin using a hoe?
When the miner has decided to no longer run the miner because of a loss.

So I assumed that what Whale said was only part of their FOMO, so that later they were ready to buy as many Bitcoins as possible if the price really fell, then they pumped the price of Bitcoin to the highest price again.

Smitty Werben Man Jensen

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I also think so, the increase in the price of Bitcoin before Halving is already very high, almost $ 5000 increase in 1 month, if you are still trading on Bitcoin now, I suggest to exit first, the situation is still stable, the possibility of correction is greater

Ifra24

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Quote from: Juggy777 on April 28, 2020, 04:57:39 AM

What do you’ll think of this is he correct, or is this some kind of mind games that he’s playing with us?.

Hard to predict, fundamental technical analysis fails if whale is working. But if you look at the cycle I think there will be a slight correction and then up again. Whale is the key here, even though the miner also plays a role. Minner does not want to lose, so he will continue to try to make prices better because rewards per block go down and the cost minning is large.

Wind_FURY

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If the halving is already "priced in", which is possible, THEN the "Bitcoin prices could fall after the halving" narrative is also priced in, by the price-setting-whalecumulators.

Buy the dip, and? Cool

gentlemand

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Quote from: Juggy777 on April 28, 2020, 04:57:39 AM

I don’t know about you’ll but this whales advice kinda feels strange, as I have only been reading that bitcoin prices will rise post the halving event, but yet he claims that bitcoin prices will fall post the halving event. According to him the effects of halving is already factored in bitcoin prices, and that’s why post the halving event bitcoin prices will tank. What do you’ll think of this is he correct, or is this some kind of mind games that he’s playing with us?.

I don't ever believe the 'priced in' crew. They said the exact same thing about previous ones along with oldies but goldies like 'mining death spiral'.

But this is a bit of excitement that peters out once the actual event is over. You have to wait quite some time for the true effects to be digested and start to influence things. If we are to get any proper action from it I'm not expecting any until well into next year.

NeuroticFish

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Halving may or may not be already priced in. But keep in mind that even without halving we had one year ago 13800 price.
There may be indeed a lot of manipulation going on, from a pre-halving pump to simply playing with our minds. Also all the markets are rather unstable now because of oil.

But.. keep in mind that Bitcoin has finite supply and the mining costs will rise for most miners. Imho the price will rise eventually.

Lucius

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Quote from: Juggy777 on April 28, 2020, 04:57:39 AM

What do you’ll think of this is he correct, or is this some kind of mind games that he’s playing with us?.

The BTC price can always go down, whether it's before or after halving is actually less important. The same things are people like this alleged whale talk before halving in 2016, and we all know what happened afterwards. There is a large mass of people who are very likely investing money currently in BTC because they are counting on quick profits after halving. But anyone who knows at least something about the past two halving knows that even in the most ideal circumstances, the effect will not be positive instantly.

Will halving be followed by a price drop? That is one of the possibilities, to which I am personally fully prepared. Whales always play games, especially those that go public.

exstasie

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Quote from: Juggy777 on April 28, 2020, 04:57:39 AM

I don’t know about you’ll but this whales advice kinda feels strange, as I have only been reading that bitcoin prices will rise post the halving event, but yet he claims that bitcoin prices will fall post the halving event.

I'm big on contrarian trading, trading against the crowd. I'd agree that people are quite bullish on the halving so he might be onto something.

Keep in mind he's down $11.3 million over the past month if you check the leaderboard, so he's not always right. Wink

Juggy777

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I don’t know about you’ll but this whales advice kinda feels strange, as I have only been reading that bitcoin prices will rise post the halving event, but yet he claims that bitcoin prices will fall post the halving event. According to him the effects of halving is already factored in bitcoin prices, and that’s why post the halving event bitcoin prices will tank. What do you’ll think of this is he correct, or is this some kind of mind games that he’s playing with us?.

Sources:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-whale-suggests-btc-price-will-crash-halving-is-priced-in

https://cointelegraph.com/news/halving-mentions-spike-on-twitter-and-in-crypto-media

https://www.coindesk.com/how-financial-models-could-move-bitcoins-price-after-the-halving

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