Topic: Bitcoin will never again be priced over $300. - page 5. (Read 4749 times)

Bitcoin on paper is already being purchased for over $300 over on GBTC on OTC and its trading has only been happening for a few days. When these shareholders have been locked in a year ago in the middle of a growing bear market and here we are a year later and the price is where it is, the shareholders are under water and don't want to sell much if anything below a certain price, hence the higher premiums there.

You have lots of large shareholders over there that for the right price (2,3,4,5x the current price) will sell to others that want to gain exposure in this growing market which is on the verge of a trend reversal. Then, they can arb at any of the exchanges and buy 2,3,4,5x as many coins which is freaking huge. If they continue to hold limited shares, then the asks can either give up or go higher. Currently, shares have been sold upwards of $1300 per bitcoin albeit not many, yet. The exchange prices have to come up at some point just by default and we aren't even taking into consideration the Swedish exchange & the Winks' operations which will bring hedge funds, 401Ks and other institutional money into which will create massive demand while the supply has dwindled - and that's before this stuff halves next fall.

If I was you, I'd keep your bet in words and not actually bet any paper on it cause I'm sure there'll be many people wanting to place bets with you and I doubt you can afford to ante up in the escrow kitty.

Ben,

all one needs to see the price of Bitcoin raise over $300 is any of the unforeseen events that have occurred over the past 5~ years that have caused the price to raise.

- Increased use.
- Buyers seeing an opportunity.
- Economies of nations crumbling, and the ensuing panic in its citizens to convert their currency from one in decline to one they see as more solid, or best allow them to retain control.

Granted, such drastic swings in the price of bitcoin wont be repeated as it has been tempered due to it's greater connection with fiat currencies through exchanges, bank-backed ventures, and greater acceptance by merchants. A swing of $100 is entirely possible though, especially in the face of unforeseen events.

Your confidence in Bitcoin remaining below $300 is based on your knowledge/experience of a system that is as relatively stable as it was when you made the original post. You can make likely predictions as to what will happen tomorrow, but even if you are 99% sure, you still can't be sure. One fly in the ointment is all it takes.

It's never too late until next halving

Although you see no value 300$ is a very near price, and it will reach it,I could even say this year
If you had said 3000 I may have believed you,but manipulation can take the price to 300

I find no entertainment value in owning or using Bitcoin, certainly not enough to account for any meaningful percentage of its value.

I am willing to pay towards the profit of a movie (its value to its creators exceeding its cost) because I find personal value in consuming it.

Apart from the (highly unlikely) "Bitcoin as a collectors item" thing, I don't see a realistic parallel in your argument...

Ben

What's the "real value" of a movie? The cost of making the movie?

Your argument seems to imply that a movie would never make any more (or less) than the cost of producing the movie. This is obviously not true.

Just because electricity and hardware costs were involved in producing bitcoins, doesn't mean bitcoins will retain that value, just as putting money to produce a movie doesn't guarantee people will pay to watch it.

Similarly, just as movies might have make more value than was put in when producing it, bitcoin could do the same.

Perhaps at some point in the future, there will be a paradigm shift and people will really value decentralization. At that time, a decentralized cryptocurrency (or a number of them) will be used as the main currencies of trade. Then the cryptocurrencies must have value equivalent of a few trillions of USD current value.

Perhaps bitcoin will gain some sort of collector's value in the future. Or become the main currency used in black markets, which again, would give it extra value.

What you said may sound logical to you, but really it's quite flawed. It may be that bitcoin never goes over $300 USD again. But there are any number of scenarios in which it would go past $300.

Likewise, I could be proven wrong.
Personally I am 100% confident that Bitcoin will never again be priced over $300.
But like anybody who makes a reasoned prediction, there are no guarantees, only degrees of confidence.

Ben

The argument does not fall apart. If there is incredible demand and I can only get my hands on 0.001 bitcoin, I can not assign a value to it and send it to a recipient. The value is set elsewhere. If one bitcoin is worth $2 and I need to send $4 to someone then I have to come up with 2 bitcoins, period. I can not send them 0.001 and tell them to treat it as if it's worth more.  You asked for an intelligent discussion then you refuse to acknowledge simple supply and demand rules that have been proven again and again.
I can admit I don't know the future. The price could go to $0 or to $100,000 in 10 years. Stating that the price will never cross (X) is short sighted and foolish.

You're right, $300 is an arbitrary figure. That figure represents my degree of confidence in the strength of my argument.
If I thought Bitcoin had a bigger "value envelope", I'd have said $400 or $500...

You saying that "supply and demand determines the value of things" is not a valid counter-argument.
Please try again.

Ben

$300 is completely arbitrary.  It certainly can go higher or lower.  Price is based on supply and demand...period.

I'm not saying that 1 sat = 1 BTC. I'm saying that 1 sat has the same blockchain/transactional capability as 1 BTC.
This is where the "If 21M people want BTC, we hit the utility ceiling!" argument falls apart.

Are you saying that the potential exists for transactional demand to surpass a supply of 2.1 quadrillion fungible units, when the primary argument for Bitcoin centers around its functional value over otherwise perfectly usable dollars?

Ben

Alright put your money where your mouth is... escrow 5 coins... 5 years

You're completely ignoring that it requires 100,000,000 satoshi to make up a full bitcoin all of which are limited. If you are ready to "get over the mindset" I will happily trade you 1 satoshi for your one bitcoin right now. I mean it's just a value being assigned by integer increments, right?

This isn't a cogent argument, it's sarcastic fluff.
Please return when you can back up your bullish position with a strong rationale.

Ben

Fine, I'll narrow the scope of my statement:

"Bitcoin will never again be priced over $300, for so long as the United States Dollar and/or the Euro and/or the Chinese Yuan exist as the world's de facto reserve currencies."

Better?

Ben

Thanks for interpreting the impact of every current and future startup... whew, and I was gonna buy more of that shit.

The rate at which wallets become inaccessible + the rate at which people intentionally burn BTC, cumulatively weighs as only a tiny fraction of a percent in the Bitcoin value equation.
And no, that rate won't 'spiral exponentially over time' or other nonsense.

Try again.

Ben

Send bitcoin to a blackhole wallet no one can access. Now there is less bitcoin in existence. More demand. Price skyrockets.

I strongly disagree, for this simple fact: one satoshi carries exactly the same transactional capability and benefit to consumers/merchants as does one full Bitcoin.
People need to get over the mindset of $1/BTC1, i.e., value being assigned in integer increments.

The current Bitcoin protocol provides for a maximum of 21M BTC x 100M sat = 2.1 QUADRILLION units of fungible supply.

Ben

Never is a long time.  The US dollar is an empire-backed currency, Bitcoin is a distributed ledger protocol on the internet. Which of these do you think has the longer lifespan?  

Historically speaking empires have lifespans measured in single digit centuries.