Topic: Bitcoin Will Not Be a Medium of Exchange - page 4. (Read 609 times)

To me, that is the biggest flaw with the idea of ever using btc as an everyday currency. And I see no real solution ever presenting itself.

As a store of value, digital gold, sure, btc could work. But as a replacement for fiat, not really, outside of 3rd world nations with hyperinflation. And even there, BTC probably isn't the ideal crypto to use in place of fiat.

For a crypto to catch on as a medium of exchange, first off it needs to be stable. Then it needs to charge less fees than credit cards do, and be just as fast. And consumers will need to be able to use this crypto seamlessly, as easy as other forms of payment, and ideally it'd have to be cheaper to use from a consumer standpoint than a credit card which typically offers 1-5% back. So.... umm... currently no cryptos really qualify, and btc certainly doesn't.

Original Post: https://bitflate.org/post/2019/11/24/bitcoin-will-not-be-a-medium-of-exchange.html

Bitcoin is "good" money. It’s too good that "bad" money will crowd it out of circulation.

Bitcoin is digital gold. It’s the number one Store of Value in cryptocurrency. But it doesn’t do much for us besides Store of Value. Some Bitcoin supporters argue HODL is a use case. More use cases will come. There is a narrative: Store of Value first, then Medium of Exchange. In this narrative, it’ll take time for Bitcoin to gain widespread adoption. Once it reaches critical mass, possibly hundreds of trillions of dollars, people will then use it as a currency. This narrative is convenient and used to justify Bitcoin ever rising price.

Nobody knows exactly when Bitcoin will reach critical mass. I agree with Store of Value use case. But I don’t agree that Bitcoin will have other use cases. Bitcoin is currently worth more than 100 billion dollars. We see few indications that it is being used as a currency outside of crypto world. Bitcoin is a valuable commodity. It will not be used as a medium of exchange.

Gresham’s law: bad money drives out good money

This principle states that more valuable commodity (good money) will gradually disappear from circulation. It will be replaced by less valuable commodity (bad money). For example, if people are currently using silver coins as money, the government decides to switch to copper coins. Government decrees that both coins have same value. In this situation, people will hold on to silver coins and use copper coins. They will spend the bad money (copper coin) and keep the good money (silver coin).

Bitcoin supporters tout it as the good money, the "goodest" money. Hyperbitcoinization will eliminate all bad money. It is misleading to label money as good and bad. Any form of currency has some use if it is in circulation. Fiat money makes the good/bad distinction fuzzy. These bad currencies are in circulation because they are just easier to circulate. The good, sound, and hard money is simply harder to circulate.

We should classify money as the desirable (good) money and the less desirable (bad) money. There is a spectrum between desirable and not desirable. In this spectrum, Bitcoin is highly desirable, gold is desirable, USD is desirable, Euro is next, Venezuela bolivar is not desirable. Gresham’s law continues to apply to the spectrum. The less desirable money will drive out the highly desirable money.

Bitcoin world domination does not reduce price volatility

Bitcoin needs to reach critical mass for world domination. This is a future outcome that Bitcoin supporters often pitch. In this future, Bitcoin price will become less volatile. It will be suitable as a medium of exchange. This argument derives from micro view of Bitcoin economics. If Bitcoin market cap is hundreds of trillions of dollars, a few hundred billions exchange will not affect price. The flaw of the argument is it assumes Bitcoin is micro and local. Bitcoin is permissionless and global. It is accessible by everyone.

Bitcoin supply is fixed. But its demand is unpredictable. Humans are fallible. We may go into wars and induce recession. We may achieve productivity breakthrough and grow fast. The future is unpredictable. Another factor is high fee. When Bitcoin no longer gives out block reward, miners will need to raise fee. When a transaction has high fee, bitcoin owner will need to have substantial gain to justify high fee. Otherwise, he/she will do better by HODLing. Bitcoin price will continue to be volatile.

Bitcoin will not be a medium of exchange because of price volatility.

"Bad" money always exists to prevent "good" Bitcoin circulation

Bitcoin is decentralized money. It exists because many of us believe it has value. It is unlikely that everyone on planet Earth will unify into one single belief. There will always be other kinds of money. These money won’t be as desirable as Bitcoin. Therefore, people will put them in circulation and keep their bitcoins.

Bitcoin will be a Store of Value. We will use other "bad" money as currency.

Bitflate is a cryptocurrency with constant inflation of 7% per year.