Bitcoin will probably reach 4500-5000, following seasonality pattern. - page 3.

Tankdestroyer

full member

Activity: 476

Merit: 107

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on June 24, 2018, 08:02:53 PM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on June 24, 2018, 03:15:58 AM

Kwukduck might be right in his $3,500 target to buy back after all. Hahaha.

He’s utterly clueless & it’s been proven again & again with his overly bearish predictions over the years.

At the very least his prediction in this thread has come to fruition(see the last reply on the thread). That being said, I believe he is not utterly clueless, his prediction might become true again this time and being overly bearish it is just his way of saying things.

Quote from: vladimir21 on June 24, 2018, 02:29:56 AM

WHen bitcoin fell down below 6500 i confirmed that we may be following seasonal pattern, which means we could see a pump around july/august. But the lowest all time bitcoin will be around september/october.

I think we are done being in the season where bitcoin follows a seasonal pattern because of Chinese manipulation. Now that bitcoin has been adopted more, I believe we won't see any seasonal pattern anymore but I believe we will probably reach 4500-5000 USD before the next bullish run happens.

buwaytress

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 3684

Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!

I think Bitcoin's already broken the seasonal pattern this year (recall the supposed January rebounds and then a failure to repeat the overall Spring gains), but in this case, I also sense yet another period of pre-year end downturn, following a brief rally in coming months. Not that my senses have been helping me in any way this particular year.

As Herbert above points out, though, patterns aren't helpful since we all see what we want to. That's the strength of charting - they illustrate a point, rather than help us arrive at one.

Herbert2020

legendary

Activity: 1946

Merit: 1137

Quote from: vladimir21 on June 24, 2018, 02:29:56 AM

In the last 50 years,on average the June/september/october are the worst months. And are very bearish.

bitcoin was created 9 years ago not 50 and what happens in other markets (stocks for example) has nothing to do with bitcoin. they may have certain patterns and do certain things in certain seasons but not bitcoin.

Quote

WHen bitcoin fell down below 6500 i confirmed that we may be following seasonal pattern, which means we could see a pump around july/august. But the lowest all time bitcoin will be around september/october.

the problem with these patterns is that there is a lot of them and most of them contradict each other. for example there was a lot of patterns suggesting we will see a rise in February, that didn't happen. then again in April and that didn't happen either. and again we have June patterns that suggest we should have seen a rise but that didn't happen either.
you see for every pattern that comes true there is another that didn't.

Wind_FURY

legendary

Activity: 2898

Merit: 1823

Quote from: Lampaster on June 24, 2018, 04:19:46 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on June 24, 2018, 03:15:58 AM

I believe we are witnessing capitulation and the bears have the control now, and it might be followed by another long movement of nothing for two years until the next halving. Kwukduck might be right in his $3,500 target to buy back after all. Hahaha.

Why do bears always lower prices? Everything has limits. It seems to me that the decline in prices to 5900 dollars is a temporary phenomenon. Bears test their strength and calculate the economic effect of further price reduction.

But the new "lower high" after the bottoming on "lower lows" will be another "temporary phenomenon" too and it can decline back again to $5,900 or lower, creating a new low for 2018.

Quote

In the end, the death of bitcoin is not beneficial to anyone. Bears want to give the steering wheel to the bulls but they don't want to take it and it can be a problem for everyone.

No. Bears like to sell short and would like to keep the steering wheel for as long as they can.

LFC_Bitcoin

legendary

Activity: 3556

Merit: 9709

#1 VIP Crypto Casino

Quote from: Wind_FURY on June 24, 2018, 03:15:58 AM

I believe we are witnessing capitulation and the bears have the control now, and it might be followed by another long movement of nothing for two years until the next halving. Kwukduck might be right in his $3,500 target to buy back after all. Hahaha.

He’s utterly clueless & it’s been proven again & again with his overly bearish predictions over the years.

timerland

hero member

Activity: 1526

Merit: 596

I don't know about your reason for bitcoin dropping to $4500-5000, since I simply have no idea whether or not the seasonal changes in BTC is really something that is tangible or not. It's hard to say at this point.

You also mentioned the fact that we may see a small bull run in July/August, which is possible, but isn't guaranteed. But even if that does happen, it's not going to influence the overall market trend too much, as the sentiment is going to stay bearish and the pump itself will be undoubtedly short-lived.

But yes, I think that bitcoin will bottom out at levels between $4k-5k. When that happens, I have no idea, but since the $6.7k support was broken I think we're definitely going to be consolidating lower before the recovery.

davis196

hero member

Activity: 3150

Merit: 937

Quote from: Lampaster on June 24, 2018, 04:19:46 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on June 24, 2018, 03:15:58 AM

I believe we are witnessing capitulation and the bears have the control now, and it might be followed by another long movement of nothing for two years until the next halving. Kwukduck might be right in his $3,500 target to buy back after all. Hahaha.

Why do bears always lower prices? Everything has limits. It seems to me that the decline in prices to 5900 dollars is a temporary phenomenon. Bears test their strength and calculate the economic effect of further price reduction. In the end, the death of bitcoin is not beneficial to anyone. Bears want to give the steering wheel to the bulls but they don't want to take it and it can be a problem for everyone.

Off course it is.Every bitcoin price at every moment is a"temporary phenomenon".
Nobody wants the death of bitcoin,the bears will make enough profits,but they will become bulls during the outumn or maybe the winter,in order to make more money.I don`t believe that much in the bulls/bears market theory.It`s just a bunch of traders,who act as bulls or bears ,when the moment is right.

Don Pedro Dinero

legendary

Activity: 1358

Merit: 1565

The first decentralized crypto betting platform

Quote from: vladimir21 on June 24, 2018, 02:29:56 AM

In the last 50 years,on average the June/september/october are the worst months. And are very bearish.

WHen bitcoin fell down below 6500 i confirmed that we may be following seasonal pattern, which means we could see a pump around july/august. But the lowest all time bitcoin will be around september/october.

So i put a bet on around 4500-5000 for these months.

You are comparing pears to oranges. Why should bitcoin behave the same way the stock market has?

Apart from that, statistics are constructions we make to understand the past, but they usually fail to predict the future, and when they fail, the new data is included in the new statistics.

How would you follow this sequence? 1,2,3,4

The obvious answer seems: 5,6,7,8. But if you see that it is followed by 1,2,3,4, you will change your prediction about the following number.

So, if you have a sequence like: 1,2,3,4,1,2,3,4 how would you follow it?

The obvious answer seems: 1,2,3,4. But again, depending on what you see after you will have to change your predictions.

airdagon

member

Activity: 546

Merit: 17

yup, the situation can now be called with the annual tradition. look back, to previous years, in the middle of the year the price is always experiencing a sharp and significant decline. but, by the end of the year prices will rise back to higher levels. I think the price will only drop to $ 5000- $ 5,500 in these months.

Lampaster

sr. member

Activity: 406

Merit: 255

Quote from: Wind_FURY on June 24, 2018, 03:15:58 AM

I believe we are witnessing capitulation and the bears have the control now, and it might be followed by another long movement of nothing for two years until the next halving. Kwukduck might be right in his $3,500 target to buy back after all. Hahaha.

Why do bears always lower prices? Everything has limits. It seems to me that the decline in prices to 5900 dollars is a temporary phenomenon. Bears test their strength and calculate the economic effect of further price reduction. In the end, the death of bitcoin is not beneficial to anyone. Bears want to give the steering wheel to the bulls but they don't want to take it and it can be a problem for everyone.

Wind_FURY

legendary

Activity: 2898

Merit: 1823

I believe we are witnessing capitulation and the bears have the control now, and it might be followed by another long movement of nothing for two years until the next halving. Kwukduck might be right in his $3,500 target to buy back after all. Hahaha.

vladimir21

full member

Activity: 212

Merit: 101

In the last 50 years,on average the June/september/october are the worst months. And are very bearish.

WHen bitcoin fell down below 6500 i confirmed that we may be following seasonal pattern, which means we could see a pump around july/august. But the lowest all time bitcoin will be around september/october.

So i put a bet on around 4500-5000 for these months.

Topic: Bitcoin will probably reach 4500-5000, following seasonality pattern. - page 3. (Read 467 times)