I don't believe much on technical analysis and prediction like this one. Looking fundamentally, there are more factors to consider in predicting the price. One thing to note is that the hype has already faded significantly and the awareness has increased, and therefore not all new investors would hop in to Bitcoin just like the early times, because they already knew some background to it.
Also, the argument stated that the % of increase per halving is also decreasing, from 13k% to 12k%. From their arguments that it would increase exponentially, we could also apply the same on the % of gains per halving, and can also conclude that it would drop its % by a significant amount.
Topic: Bitcoin Will Reach $400,000 After Halving, History Dictates - page 3. (Read 977 times)
Even John McAfee has said that he's pulled out of the prediction. So why are we still talking about these absurd figures?
Drawing comparable data from the past could be useful for analysis, but this is certainly not comparable data by any means given the simple fact that you're obviously going to see much harsher conditions to pump BTC under this market, which is much more mature and has larger market capitalization which requires more capital inflow to influence prices in the short term.
Be realistic, guys. The all time high of 2017 could still stand after this bull run is all said and done, simply because of how high it went and how overpriced BTC was compared to its fundamentals at the time.
Drawing comparable data from the past could be useful for analysis, but this is certainly not comparable data by any means given the simple fact that you're obviously going to see much harsher conditions to pump BTC under this market, which is much more mature and has larger market capitalization which requires more capital inflow to influence prices in the short term.
Be realistic, guys. The all time high of 2017 could still stand after this bull run is all said and done, simply because of how high it went and how overpriced BTC was compared to its fundamentals at the time.
History repeat itself, that's what we believe but $400k? That is too high to achieve. As if even if we reach $30k or higher, it will stay for a longer time, pretty sure it won't, so $400k is just a dream. Those who based in history on how much growth we have after halving, maybe you can change it this time. We've reached $20k, and that is too high already to have almost the same percentage of growth this upcoming halving. If ever we reach that price, just imagine the effect of it for new investors, future investors, image of crypto when the price fall deeply.
And the one thing that can't be accounted for is the motivation and actions of the hodling public. The price could get to $25k and everynone could say "i'm out!" and the price comes back down accordingly.
When the price can rise to $25k-$35k, many people will be happy because they can make a lot of money, and they can also recover their losses before. No matter what it is, the price will adjust again like usual, and we don't know how much the price will be down, and perhaps, the price will adjust to $10k-$15k. I don't have a big dream for now, and I am not sure if the price can reach $400k after halving, but if that happens, I am sure and believe that moment will be used for all people who have bitcoin to sell at that price.
But prediction will be a prediction, and we are free to say how much bitcoin price will increase and announce to all people in social media. We should wait and see for the next thing that will happen to bitcoin so we can know how the higher bitcoin price will reach after halving.
Everyone has a prediction, which makes each less and less believable. One thing to keep in mind is that in past halving events it took 12-18 months after the halving before the peaks in price were realized and of course then the market crashed.
SOURCE.
It's not the high price mark that should be used for the preduction, but the settling point the market falls back down. In the last halving the price went from $230 to $4000 (after the market fell back after the $20k high), that results in an increase of 46 times the starting price. If we multiple the current BTC price of $8,600 by 46 we arrive at ~$175,000...certainly not $400,000.
And the one thing that can't be accounted for is the motivation and actions of the hodling public. The price could get to $25k and everynone could say "i'm out!" and the price comes back down accordingly.
Quote from: Forbes: What Will The Next 'Halving' Mean For The Price Of Bitcoin?
Using CoinDesk data, I analyzed bitcoin prices through this April and found that large volatility events seem to occur around 12-18 months after each halving. The first time, BTC went from around $11 to around $1,100 and back down to $220. The second time, BTC went from around $230 to around $20,000 and back down to around $4,000.
SOURCE.
It's not the high price mark that should be used for the preduction, but the settling point the market falls back down. In the last halving the price went from $230 to $4000 (after the market fell back after the $20k high), that results in an increase of 46 times the starting price. If we multiple the current BTC price of $8,600 by 46 we arrive at ~$175,000...certainly not $400,000.
And the one thing that can't be accounted for is the motivation and actions of the hodling public. The price could get to $25k and everynone could say "i'm out!" and the price comes back down accordingly.
why lately there are always threads like this. Previously someone wrote Bitcoin would reach $ 100k after being reduced by half and now there is another to $ 400k. I think this is a thread that is an unreasonable prediction that the current price of bitcoin is only $ 8600. It is unlikely that bitcoin will go up to $ 400k.
do not expect too high it will make you stressed if expectations do not match reality. I also believe bitcoin will rise after being reduced by half but I think the increase is not that high and it might also take quite a long time to reach the new ATH.
do not expect too high it will make you stressed if expectations do not match reality. I also believe bitcoin will rise after being reduced by half but I think the increase is not that high and it might also take quite a long time to reach the new ATH.
The potential increase in the price of bitcoin after halving is very high, but honestly at what price the increase will occur no one can predict. Only one analysis will always be repeated by several people. There is only the closest potential after halving the price will reach the highest price of bitcoin, which is the $ 19,000 area. To go to $ 400,000 I think it still needs to be considered, it doesn't mean that it's not possible.
LOL $400,000 seems to hard to reach right now just look at where we are right now,
It seems impossible to jump from $8.6K to $400K in just a year.
You should stop listening to those TA's prediction or speculation.
It seems impossible to jump from $8.6K to $400K in just a year.
You should stop listening to those TA's prediction or speculation.
the question is when is this halving?because i am sure this is not 2020 lol,exaggerating value that 400k$ ,so if thats the case so McAffee is almost right? about His 1 million prediction?
lol yeah it is indeed that we can have this after halving but not this year,maybe the next or another?no one really knows.
I don’t know how people making all these dumb speculations. But, do you believe that Bitcoin will reach $1 million this year? He must be joking about that, because it’s never going to happen. It’s some foolish influencers that are fond of telling their followers that Bitcoin will reach up to $1 million, and by doing so they deceive some noobs into thinking that price will go that high. They will all rush in with such high expectations and at the end they will be disappointed. So, people should stop all these high speculations, even if Bitcoin is going to reach that price it is probably going to take a very long time. lol yeah it is indeed that we can have this after halving but not this year,maybe the next or another?no one really knows.
These are literally the people that are worst for bitcoins future, not the people who sell their coins for less than what they bought, not the people who make news about how bitcoin is dying, not even Craig Wright hurts bitcoin as much as these people. Why? Because they make these insane claims and other people believe it as well. You may think that 400k look like too much and won't happen (at least not anytime soon, maybe in 5-10 years who knows) but because of these people some naive investors think they are going to become super rich and have yacth parties and so forth and invest their money into bitcoin and when the price doesn't go there they blame bitcoin for it, bitcoin in itself has nothing to do with its price, bitcoin is a currency, it can't talk, how can you blame bitcoin itself, blame the speculators if you want to blame someone, for example OP is a great example of that.
Some believe it will have no effect at all, while others are betting big on this.
And I think it's those who are already betting big who are the ones responsible for driving up bitcoin's price recently. There's no logical reason why the halving should produce an effect (in my view), but speculators who think it should might very well make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.As to the $400k nonsense, it's just that. If bitcoin were to hit that price even in 2021, the market would be in serious trouble and at risk of a huge crash. I've learned never to underestimate the potential of bitcoin to surprise me as far as how high it can go, and how fast, but it's not always a good thing when it starts heading toward looney-bin territory.
That prediction sounds like clickbait hype to me, and I'm paying it no mind.
400 000 USD for 1 Bitcoin after the having is something insane and kinda unbelievable to not say impossible. I mean who knows probably bitcoin's price will increase a lot but not at this high. In my opinion Bitcoin can reach more than 40k$ Max by the end of 2020 which it's kinda realistic and I'm optimistic here but 400k$ that will be really insane if it will happen.
It will be insane indeed, but don't forget with the history that happen at 2017 ago. Do you remember bitcoin price had increased from $1000 to $20.000 at that time? But it was really happen. Because at that time there is no halving event, the halving event just happened at the privously year. So, there is no impossible with the movement of bitcoin price. In other hand, at this year there are will be a lot of people who knows bitcoin. I just thinking that when bitcoin price touch the privous all time high then there will be many people who decide to buy bitcoin. Because, the people will know bitcoin had decreased a lot at 2018 ago but its price touch again the all time high for the second time and it will pointed out that bitcoin is really deserve to be choose as an investment place.
These predictions are only based on the number each past halving that took place then calculated the percentage of how much the price increased. Definitely not always the case since the market are dependable on the number and volume of invested money in cryptospace or Bitcoin specifically. The halving effect might help boost the price and possibly can reach new ATH, just because of the good outcome from the last 2 halving where people are actually chasing for the same opportunity that some had missed.
The truth is any predictions about Bitcoin price is like crystal gazing. The market is so unpredictable. I doubt that we will see 30k after/before halving. Maybe 20k but it's just my opinion.
And 20k is still not possible, though we all know how volatile the market is, one day it pumps and the other day it will fall. So we need to be certain on what are plan really is, to hold till that price reach or to just take opportunities even on those small gains for guarantee earning, halving will sure to increase but not these now due to many conflicts involved in crypto. 
But I could be wrong too. Who knows? We just have to see if $400,000 per BTC would actually happen after the halving. However, it’s not good enough to save John McAfee’s d***! 
Nobody cares about McAfee, I do think so. Well, $400,000 is close to real if the only basis would be the history itself. However considering some fundamental factors, some other people might say we won't be able to see bullrun. I am not a fan of prediction either, but if this would be real, 400k was so huge. But isn't it just a FOMO trap? We must be careful as well though.
The truth is any predictions about Bitcoin price is like crystal gazing. The market is so unpredictable. I doubt that we will see 30k after/before halving. Maybe 20k but it's just my opinion.
Of course. No one knows anything. I certainly didn't expect 20 grand in 2017 and can't remember anyone else calling it either.
What that tells us is that we need to be in a position to benefit from every possible outcome.
Funnily enough the loudest and most certain people usually totally miss whatever boat by refusing to commit or hedge because they're convinced they're right no matter what is screaming in their face.
The truth is any predictions about Bitcoin price is like crystal gazing. The market is so unpredictable. I doubt that we will see 30k after/before halving. Maybe 20k but it's just my opinion.
Of course. No one knows anything. I certainly didn't expect 20 grand in 2017 and can't remember anyone else calling it either.
What that tells us is that we need to be in a position to benefit from every possible outcome.
Funnily enough the loudest and most certain people usually totally miss whatever boat by refusing to commit or hedge because they're convinced they're right no matter what is screaming in their face.
The truth is any predictions about Bitcoin price is like crystal gazing. The market is so unpredictable. I doubt that we will see 30k after/before halving. Maybe 20k but it's just my opinion.
Based on the theory and previous growth periods, your statements are reasonable, the price of bitcoin can grow many times after halving. But in fact, we will not know anything in the future, the price may fall and not follow the previous rules. We need to wait for it to happen and make an accurate conclusion. I personally only hope that in 2020 the price of bitcoin can stabilize at $ 12000-15000, just like that, everything will be more wonderful.
400 000 USD for 1 Bitcoin after the having is something insane and kinda unbelievable to not say impossible. I mean who knows probably bitcoin's price will increase a lot but not at this high. In my opinion Bitcoin can reach more than 40k$ Max by the end of 2020 which it's kinda realistic and I'm optimistic here but 400k$ that will be really insane if it will happen.
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