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Therefore, before the snapshot most Bitcoin users will be taking their coins off of exchanges and parking them in wallets where they have access to the private keys. This results in less Bitcoins on the exchanges to be sold and therefore in less downward pressure than normal.
But will it not also make the traders more cautious and take the stance of "wait and see" before they make their move on the market? I believe that trading will be very stagnant right before the hard fork. If I was made to guess in what direction the market will be, it would be down.
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Even those that want to sell now (or in the near future) will likely be parking their Bitcoins, because the Segwit2x is effectively free money. The result will be the same amount of Bitcoin Core tokens and Segwit2x tokens. Although it is unclear as to which token may be the victorious in the fight for the rights to carry forth the Bitcoin flag, one thing is clear... both tokens will certainly not be worthless. Guessing who will be victorious in the battle is unclear anyways.
Without replay protection both "tokens" will be continued to be "parked" in their wallets. I also believe some will trade some of their Bitcoins for more promising altcoins.
Solid points, and I agree... I could see the market going down up until the fork too. I do not claim to be able to tell the future. My speculation is just that... speculation.
I had not thought about the Bitcoins being parked for an unknown amount of time AFTER the fork if there is no replay protection. Very good insight there, that will definitely effect the market.
Thanks. May I ask what your position is on the hard fork to Segwit2x/btc1? Are you for or against? Your blog post makes me think that you are for Jeff Garzik and the Silbert Accord.
If you are for Segwit2x then what are your thoughts on Jeff Garzik's refusal of placing replay protection?
Jeff Garzik is insane. He wants to get rid of the original chain and then claim segwit2xcoin is BTC. He is another power drunk developer that thinks users=bribed hashrate and bribed fiat exchanges.
I hope that we get enough hashrate for the whales to dump on segwit2x chain and destroy the price, otherwise we are going to see Bitcoin get took over by corporate fiat CEOs and at that point it's pretty much dead.
). However, as time goes by, and more pieces of the puzzle fall into place, it is becoming more and more apparent that the battle is actually a front for at least two hidden agendas. That is a complicated topic, one which I will save for another occasion. I promise to post my opinion on such soon. For now I simply wish to point out the main reason why Bitcoin will reach new all time highs in the near future.
