The attacker doesn't need to be part of the honest network before launching an attack at all, so you would not see a sudden drop in hashing power. A longer chain would just appear out of nowhere.
Once some group controls more hashing power that rest of the miners combined, bitcoin reality is exactly what they want and nothing else (can't do anything that would invalidate blocks in the eyes of honest nodes, like change block reward etc). If they are honest, then no problem, but if they want to attack the network, they can just grow their own chain, refuse the blocks generated by honest nodes, but force honest nodes to accept attackers block. Honest nodes can't differentiate between attackers blocks and honest blocks (because they are decentralized), while attacker knows which blocks are which. It doesn't matter if honest nodes get ahead for a while. Attacker will always catch up, and all the work honest nodes have done would be replaced with the attackers "reality".
This idea of a watchdog system is nice, but I'm not entirely sure how much it would help if someone truly has a majority of the hashing power. I mean, even if you knew with 100% certainty, that someone is attacking the network with a majority hashing power, and maybe even how and when it's going to happen, what is the mechanism that would be used to prevent the attack in a decentralized system like bitcoin? Like you said "Whether that mattered would depend upon what the rest of the network does once the watchdogs are barking". I'm not sure there is anything they can do, without giving up the decentralized nature of bitcoin.
Bitcoin is secure "As long as a majority of CPU power is controlled by nodes that are not cooperating to attack the network", but not a second longer.
There are a number of things that live operators can do to inhibit an attack under way, not the least of which is to bring more hashing power to bear. An attacker coming in unannounced with blocks would cause a significant revision on the blockchain, not something that can be stopped, but it's a huge red flag. A watchdog process could alert users to an attack underway, and any commerce site using bitcoin in any automatic fashion should immediately suspend trade to protect themselves.
Who has that kind of hashing power just waiting to be used with a push of a button? Perhaps in future someone with vested interest in protecting bitcoin and hardware that is regularly used for something else? Ok, I can see that happening, but almost any other action you can take when the watchdogs are barking requires choosing the valid block chain with some other criteria than which one is the longest.
Also, nodes are not anonymous to each other. It's not trivial, but it is possible to determine from where the new blocks came from.
Really? How?
Also, and attacker coming in from outside the network needs at least as much hashing power as the whole honest network, not just 50%. Just having a simple majority of the hashing power is only enough to make the attack possible, it doesn't make it easy. To build a chain in the dark, the attacker must have significantly more than the whole of the honest network in order to build his dark chain fast enough to get back far enough to overwrite his intended target block.
That's true if the attacker retroactively decides to rewrite some past block. What I was talking about was, when double spend (or some other attack) is planned in advance, and the attacker starts hashing the dark chain from the same block as honest nodes.