So many posts recently with questions like "when will bitcoin go back to $20,000?".
It's as if people assume that, if bitcoin was a certain price in USD at some point in the past, that it must go back to that same level again.
But can't see anyone asking "when will bitcoin go back to $1,000?". It's the same logic as the question above. Bitcoin was $1,000 a year ago, so it's exactly the same reasoning.
The question should really be : "when will bitcoin be $x again?", where "x" is the price of bitcoin at some point in the past.
But, just because something has happened in the past does not mean it would, or should, happen again at some point in the future.
first of all, ignore the all time high.. thats pure unbacked speculation
anyway
just like most things in life. houses, gold, bitcoin.. there are things that create a bottom underlying value (intrinsic). catgorised as the cost of obtaining which has two parts: creating cost and buying cost
yes with all things houses gold and bitcoin there is speculation above underlying value. but lets just stick with finding underlying value.
though there are some users that obtained coins when it was dirt cheap and have held for a long time. they have come to the opinion they wont sell for less than X. or they would have already. so the 'buyers remorse' panic has probably already found its bottom level after being tested the last few months.
as for mining cost. the higher the hashrate, and the lower the reward changes per 4 years. along with the rig cost and electric. culminates to a calculation of a cost to mine btc that can be calculated. and these miners would not sell for less than it cost them to mine,
what you find is if you do some maths and work it all out you start to notice a range/area of where intrinsic value is which is where people refuse to sell for less than, as thats the support area of the cost of obtaining the coin.
s in my view i se intrinsic value, based on some maths at around the $6-10k area right now. meaning the chances of seeing $1k again would mean that the cost of mining a btc would need to drop by 6x for miners to even contemplate selling for $1k (dont see that happening unless bitcoin had major bug/flaw)