Pages:
Author

Topic: Bitcoinica now out of both, BTC and USD - page 2. (Read 2555 times)

hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 502
January 17, 2012, 01:00:19 PM
#5
Perhaps I've not understood Bitcoinica (I've tried hard and I can't explain it to myself satisfactorily any other way):

The leveraged part has to be borrowed from somewhere, it can't just be matched up.  I assume that comes out of the reserve too.

I guess this from this reasoning (assume a $5 BTC price):

  • Alice has $100; and leverages at 1:3.  She shorts against her $100 margin, meaning she needs to borrow (100*3/5) = 60 BTC (which she then instantly sells of course)
  • Bob has 10 BTC; and leverages at 1:6.  He goes long against his 10 BTC margin, meaning he needs to borrow (10*6*5) = $300 (which he then instantly buys BTC with of course)

Where does the missing 50 BTC come from that it can be sold?  Where does the missing $200 come from that it can be used for purchases?  The answer must be Bitcoinica's reserves.

Presumably they've now been used up, and "*" is showing for both sides.

(I'm happy to be corrected, I don't claim to be any kind of expert).
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
January 17, 2012, 12:56:39 PM
#4
everything was going fine until bitcoinica showed up  Undecided


Add this to another era in bitcoin history.
member
Activity: 96
Merit: 10
January 17, 2012, 12:51:11 PM
#3
Yes, that is very strange... the most profitable scenario for bitcoinica is where there are the same number of buyers/sellers. That way they don't have to hedge on mtgox.

If they ran out of USD and BTC at the same time, i'm pretty sure they have a hedging problem.
vip
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1140
The Casascius 1oz 10BTC Silver Round (w/ Gold B)
January 17, 2012, 12:47:24 PM
#2
I'm not sure if I understand how this all works, but couldn't the risk from the bulls be offset by the risk from the bears?  I thought Bitcoinica's "fund" is meant to correct an imbalance.  When the price moves, somebody's going to win, and somebody's going to lose, and the losers pay the winners, right?
member
Activity: 102
Merit: 10
January 17, 2012, 12:43:38 PM
#1


Both, bulls and bears, are heavily over-leveraged so it seems. One of them will bite the dust eventually.
Pages:
Jump to: