Bitcoin's 100k bubble may not burst ??? - page 2.

rodskee

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Quote from: Husires on February 09, 2021, 12:51:26 PM

I’ve playing with some historical data, and people compare current bubble with that in 2013 and 2017, where the price increase continued for more than 6 months, and by the end of the year we witnessed correction processes of more than 70%.

We have strong numbers this year with the support of investment funds. current bubble may be different and correction may be longer and not only by next December.

I want some analysis of what will happen if we break the $ 100,000, or at least will we see a correction of 70% within 12 months?

Bubble is not the right Word to use in this case, Maybe in 2013 and 2017 those can be bubble as obviously Bag holders are making their Move to pattern the movement and eventually drop the price to take small investors fund.

But this year? they cannot even make the market shakes and instead the New investors are Hindering them to manipulate the market once more.

This is what we called Real Pump and staying high .

Zemomtum

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Bitcoin might likely surpass the 100k this year based on institution involvement and adoption we are currently seeing such as from Paypal and Visa, this year will be very huge for the entire crypto industry.

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Quote from: Gozie51 on April 01, 2021, 06:27:34 AM

Quote from: magneto on April 01, 2021, 05:36:50 AM

In terms of the 70% correction, I do expect it to happen as an eventuality. I'd say with some confidence that we'll see some sort of major correction before mid next-year.

The drop can be sooner than mid next year IMO. Taking the scene of 2017 bull , it didn't last the whole year before the cirrection started , it went down to bear. Bitcoin went this high because of covid-19 fears and many investors pushed money to bitcoin. So I think with the vaccine, there will be reduction of cases and confidence may return to the way things were. Some investors are not enthusiasts, so they may cash out anytime there is a little correction and that can cause drop.

Im not really that considering because of pandemic on where people had putted up their assets on bitcoin or simply in crypto which it did made out some pumps.When
we do try to look back on where the price started to rise up on last quarter of 2020 until this very moment that we are currently experiencing.We cant precisely tell that
bear market would really be starting in mid-year but we cant really remove the possibility because we cant just see a market that would continuously rise.
There would be always a correction or selling point therefore bursting out is something that can really happen.

LUCKMCFLY

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Quote from: eaLiTy on April 01, 2021, 12:27:02 PM

Quote from: Gozie51 on April 01, 2021, 06:27:34 AM

The drop can be sooner than mid next year IMO. Taking the scene of 2017 bull , it didn't last the whole year before the cirrection started , it went down to bear. Bitcoin went this high because of covid-19 fears and many investors pushed money to bitcoin. So I think with the vaccine, there will be reduction of cases and confidence may return to the way things were. Some investors are not enthusiasts, so they may cash out anytime there is a little correction and that can cause drop.

Even if i accept that the price of BTCitcoin rallied this much because of the pandemic you cannot expect the market to return back to normal even if the vaccines are mass produced because the damage that has done to the economy is really high and most of the government were pumping money into the market which is not the best way to counter these and it can cause inflation in the long run. If your argument of panic buying is the main cause then that situation will relevant for the coming years as well.

My point of view is that many investors will book their profit and the major rally in the market is supported by institutional investors and it has nothing to do with the pandemic with the way they were investing and once they start booking the profit we might see a major correction.

Normally the panic scheme causes sales to increase, it can be said that now due to the pandemic Bitcoin rises much more, there are reasons not only for market speculation, but also for the ease of moving money without leaving home and in a way safe.

The correction is normal in the market, simply what can be done is to wait, but I do not think the same will happen in 2017, the downward trend came very quickly for that year, but they were other conditions, there was no institutional investment that now participates In the market, the living conditions were different, the panic was not latent as it currently is, I think that everything that happens in the Bitcoin market will be much more difficult to predict, as well as to predict the maximum that can reach this 2021.

Many bet that when reaching $ 100k this will explode, but although it will be many sales, I do not think it is the end of the bullish stage, the institutional investment that has arrived at the moment did not do it to earn little, they are doing it to win in big.

eaLiTy

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Quote from: Gozie51 on April 01, 2021, 06:27:34 AM

The drop can be sooner than mid next year IMO. Taking the scene of 2017 bull , it didn't last the whole year before the cirrection started , it went down to bear. Bitcoin went this high because of covid-19 fears and many investors pushed money to bitcoin. So I think with the vaccine, there will be reduction of cases and confidence may return to the way things were. Some investors are not enthusiasts, so they may cash out anytime there is a little correction and that can cause drop.

Even if i accept that the price of BTCitcoin rallied this much because of the pandemic you cannot expect the market to return back to normal even if the vaccines are mass produced because the damage that has done to the economy is really high and most of the government were pumping money into the market which is not the best way to counter these and it can cause inflation in the long run. If your argument of panic buying is the main cause then that situation will relevant for the coming years as well.

My point of view is that many investors will book their profit and the major rally in the market is supported by institutional investors and it has nothing to do with the pandemic with the way they were investing and once they start booking the profit we might see a major correction.

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Quote from: magneto on April 01, 2021, 05:36:50 AM

In terms of the 70% correction, I do expect it to happen as an eventuality. I'd say with some confidence that we'll see some sort of major correction before mid next-year.

The drop can be sooner than mid next year IMO. Taking the scene of 2017 bull , it didn't last the whole year before the cirrection started , it went down to bear. Bitcoin went this high because of covid-19 fears and many investors pushed money to bitcoin. So I think with the vaccine, there will be reduction of cases and confidence may return to the way things were. Some investors are not enthusiasts, so they may cash out anytime there is a little correction and that can cause drop.

magneto

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Look, I don't think anyone disagrees that the BTC markets are currently very frothy.

But just because a bubble is forming doesn't necessarily imply that it's going to correct any time soon. In fact, I do actually expect the run-up to $100k to happen without too much of a resistance. The market psyche is simply completely unpredictable when FOMO is so rife.

In terms of the 70% correction, I do expect it to happen as an eventuality. I'd say with some confidence that we'll see some sort of major correction before mid next-year.

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After the end of the year or in the coming months, there may be drastic improvements after reaching 100,000, but rest assured that 70% correction does not work. We are talking about a bubble. When the 70% correction happened, Bitcoin reached that price without any support and only by manipulating whales and big people, and then severe corrections began.
But is it the same in 2021? In the new year, we are witnessing an increase in the price of bitcoin due to the influx of large companies and large individuals towards this technology, and this is not a bubble, and this is a real price.

The market will still be the same, the people on the market is going to be the ones that is going to change. You are right that this year it is going to be different because with companies in the game, whales can't simply just drop the prices. If bitcoin is a bubble then it should have already burst a long time ago.

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Quote from: pooya87 on April 01, 2021, 01:43:04 AM

Quote from: Husires on February 09, 2021, 12:51:26 PM

current bubble may be different and correction may be longer and not only by next December.

There is no bubble and there won't be a bubble at $100k either, unless we start calling small rises mini-bubbles then we have to call small corrections mini-bubble-bursts. Then we had one just this month!

The 2017 bubble was going from $150 to $20000 which is 13,233% rise
The 2021 rise so far was going from $3200 to $61000 which is 1,806% rise
Even if the final rally reaches $100k it is still a 3,025% rise which is 10,000% smaller than 2017 bubble so you can't even begin to compare the 2 with each other yet!!!

Price in 2021 has to first reach $426,656 to be of the same size as 2017 then we can call it a bubble and discuss how the bubble burst is going to be.
In other words if the top in 2021 were $100k then there is no way it comes down because it is not even close to being a bubble.

The “bubble narrative” was invented by nocoiner-trolls to scare the people away, and discourage them from hedging from the monetary system that they trust and believe in. It’s the same as the “mining death spiral” narrative.

Zoom out.

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Quote from: pooya87 on April 01, 2021, 01:43:04 AM

Quote from: Husires on February 09, 2021, 12:51:26 PM

current bubble may be different and correction may be longer and not only by next December.

There is no bubble and there won't be a bubble at $100k either, unless we start calling small rises mini-bubbles then we have to call small corrections mini-bubble-bursts. Then we had one just this month!

The 2017 bubble was going from $150 to $20000 which is 13,233% rise
The 2021 rise so far was going from $3200 to $61000 which is 1,806% rise
Even if the final rally reaches $100k it is still a 3,025% rise which is 10,000% smaller than 2017 bubble so you can't even begin to compare the 2 with each other yet!!!

Price in 2021 has to first reach $426,656 to be of the same size as 2017 then we can call it a bubble and discuss how the bubble burst is going to be.
In other words if the top in 2021 were $100k then there is no way it comes down because it is not even close to being a bubble.

And when bitcoin reach $100k most of the altcoins will follow just like the 2017 i can't say that btc will rise up to 13,233% or beyond but this is likely to happen in a long run

cryptomaniac_xxx

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And just imagine reaching $150k and then we see a dump of 50% at $75k, it is a failure or not base on that price? So there's a lot of factors to be involved here, just because we reach $100k and assuming that it will be mostly the top (which I doubt in the first place), we are going to see a massive drop. Institutions and billionaires are here, maybe retail will be the only one dumping if we hit $100k or more. But this big players are still going to hedge their wealth on bitcoin and I doubt that they will also sold it at the top.

pooya87

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Quote from: Husires on February 09, 2021, 12:51:26 PM

current bubble may be different and correction may be longer and not only by next December.

There is no bubble and there won't be a bubble at $100k either, unless we start calling small rises mini-bubbles then we have to call small corrections mini-bubble-bursts. Then we had one just this month!

The 2017 bubble was going from $150 to $20000 which is 13,233% rise
The 2021 rise so far was going from $3200 to $61000 which is 1,806% rise
Even if the final rally reaches $100k it is still a 3,025% rise which is 10,000% smaller than 2017 bubble so you can't even begin to compare the 2 with each other yet!!!

Price in 2021 has to first reach $426,656 to be of the same size as 2017 then we can call it a bubble and discuss how the bubble burst is going to be.
In other words if the top in 2021 were $100k then there is no way it comes down because it is not even close to being a bubble.

dothebeats

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I don't think the burst is gonna happen sooner, not with the amount of money being printed right now which promotes inflation and the 1% acknowledging bitcoin and actively investing on it. Plus at this stage, only the richy rich can buy tons of bitcoins at this price point and there's no one to dump this huge money to, because not everyone is comfortable in buying at this price range since it's already near the top of this cycle. Perhaps you can say it's a stalemate in the market right now since a few wants to buy and those who hold too much cannot simply dump it at the market since the demand isn't that good either.

Wind_FURY

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OP, the expected time of “bursting of the bubble” will happen LATER because of the BRRR money-printing by the Fed and all the stimulus packages of different countries to revive their economies. There is also the threat of inflation/hyperinfilation, which some smart billionaires have started to HODL Bitcoin is a back up/fall back/hedge in case the government loses control of the monetary system.

adaseb

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You need to realise that you can't compare cycles this way. Just because BTC went 20x in 2017 doesn't mean it will go 20x this time around. Even if it does go 20x, do you expect it to go another 20x from $400K all the way up to $8,000,000 BTC? Obviously the cycle needs to stop somewhere.

Right now prices are very high and at times the algo bots are having problems keeping liquidity of some of the smaller currencies such as BTCEUR. Look what happened when it broke 50K euro, there was massive sell walls and not enough euro for the bots to arbitrage the trade and there was a huge arbitrage for a few hours.

Prices are always starting to get toppy now. If we are at $250,000 BTC, imagine how difficult it will get then when someone wants to dump 25BTC all of a sudden? Who will absorb all that liquidity?

wheelz1200

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Quote from: Husires on February 09, 2021, 12:51:26 PM

I’ve playing with some historical data, and people compare current bubble with that in 2013 and 2017, where the price increase continued for more than 6 months, and by the end of the year we witnessed correction processes of more than 70%.

We have strong numbers this year with the support of investment funds. current bubble may be different and correction may be longer and not only by next December.

I want some analysis of what will happen if we break the $ 100,000, or at least will we see a correction of 70% within 12 months?

I won't provide any technical analysis but every cycle won't be the same. If it would be the same then everyone should sell right now because the correction should take it well under where it lies today. Peoe confuse one or two cycles with "this is what happens every 3-4 years". There are different circumstances from 2013 to 2021.

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Quote from: thecodebear on March 31, 2021, 07:23:09 PM

I'd only expect a big bubble burst if Bitcoin shoots way up quickly, like if it hits $100k this summer and then a month or two later it's close to $200k, then I'd expect a crash back under $100k is likely. But I don't think we'll see things play out like that.

Right, as we can see the growth has been slowing down in the last 3 months and could take like the last quarter of this year to reach $100k or something in that ball park.

The burst of 2017 was rather fast, if we are going to compare them, the burst could had happen late 2020, but it didn't meaning we have a lot of room this year.

But the growth is slowing as we haven't seen a super fast rally. Although this year will be critical, if all other predictors like $200k will be reach then obviously, we are in bubble and what follows will be big crash.

thecodebear

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I think Bitcoin having a bubble depends on how fast it goes up. No rapid rise to a blow-off top, no bubble. With the retail market much less FOMO-y than previous cycles, and institutions only gradually coming in and in small (for them) amounts they also don't FOMO in. No mass FOMO means no blow-off top, means no bubble. I think there's a good chance that no great big bubble will form, but instead we'll just see a gradual expansion of the market with plenty of corrections due to the lack of significant FOMO. Like look at NFTs right now - that's where there is crazy FOMO, but the larger crypto market and bitcoin specifically there's nothing like that right now.

I'd only expect a big bubble burst if Bitcoin shoots way up quickly, like if it hits $100k this summer and then a month or two later it's close to $200k, then I'd expect a crash back under $100k is likely. But I don't think we'll see things play out like that.

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Eventually, the bubble will burst though, just a question of when and what will be the top price. We have this kind of 4 year cycle, but since bitcoin's narrative has change because of institutions, we might see one super cycle, or maybe 2. But it's imminent, it will burst at some point, it might take longer though this time. Maybe $100k or even higher will be the top, so let's see how it goes.

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Quote from: Argoo on March 31, 2021, 12:44:56 PM

Now the cryptocurrency market has become more mature and therefore differs from what it was in 2017-2018. Large business structures have entered the market, and even some government agencies are showing interest in bitcoin. They invest in cryptocurrency more deliberately and will be subject to less panic, so there should not be such a sharp and deep fall in cryptocurrency, as it was in mid-2018. It is likely that now we can expect a further rise in prices in the cryptocurrency market, and this growth may still continue for a long time.

I'm not sure about that, the chart will be repeated this is the point that i believe, Try to imagine if Bitcoin price pump massive do you think how many people will interested to sell their Bitcoin, maybe most people will do it. Do you think intitutions will not do the same?? My opinion Be careful this year, institutions have large bag, if they sell it you will see huge correction

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