I'm tickled by folks who swear up and down that BTC will be $10,000/BTC+ in a few years time, just as soon as BTC begins to catch on and garner more market adoption. Of course I would love for nothing more, but it seems like most of these predictions are little more than comforting delusions made by folks hoarding their BTC, laying in wait to become filthy rich!
Bitcoin's big problem is that of adoption... Bitcoin just isn't easy enough.
For instance, all of the promising articles coming out talking about how BTC is perfect for developing third world countries? Yes, BTC is in theory, great for people in developing countries, or who are victims of monetarily abusive governments... But access to a personal computer, let alone internet access which is NOT widespread in underdeveloped countries. In North America, 78% of the population uses, or has the ability to use the internet. In Europe, its 63%. Compare this to Africa, which is at 15%, or the Middle East, which sits around 40% and we can infer that the majority of the population does not currently have the ability to even run a Wallet. Even then, would they know how to backup a wallet.dat file? would they know how to encrypt? Probably not. Remember guys, most of us here are fans of and experts on computers/networking/technology.
Beyond that, getting started with Bitcoin is just too hard. Describing Bitcoin to some one who either A. Isn't computer savvy, or B. doesn't understand economics is difficult enough. Downloading a Wallet is fairly simple, but then how to get Bitcoins? You have to sign up with Coinbase, (easiest method at the moment, at least here in the states with the exception of localbitcoins) hook up a bank account (Most people are too cautious to do this) and wait for verification... and then it kind of looses its anonymous draw as transactions can be traced back to a fiat bank account. People are not patient... If they aren't able to just download an iPhone app, they probably wont give it a second attempt. We need a super simple way to set people up with something lite like MultiBit.
"But wait... What would I need to buy BTC for?" They will say... There are certainly far more business accepting fiat currency. "well BTC is for keeping value secure against inflation and government abuses, its also instantly transferable and fairly anonymous!" You'll implore. Ah yes, BTC
can be used this way, and as I said before, the majority of us are storing our BTC this way. But this is the biggest problem... A currency cannot catch on, cannot thrive, cannot penetrate the market unless it is being circulated often. We don't spend our coins, because we are waiting for the price to increase... But we wont see any increase until more people start spending coins. Unless something crazy happens with the Global economy and people start dumping fiat into BTC... We are technophiles, and that is why we like BTC. Because it's a cool phenomenon spawned from the internet, and we love when we can get the internet to do new things.... I'm not saying that BTC is pointless, or a dumb idea... especially if you enjoy items from SilkRoad. I love BTC, and for some reason mining is a lot of fun for me, so I will continue to hold BTC and secretly hope to get rich quick.
I do believe that given another ten or fifteen years, BTC could really become truly widespread, but my fear is that it will die off due to market stagnation long before it has that chance... What do you guys think?
(Not trying to upset anyone! Just a discussion! Lets keep it civil
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