Topic: Bitcoin's future is clear to those who study technology's history (Read 7598 times)

Jellies, I agree, that is why I wrote what I did in the conclusion. There is no doubt about the future of digital / crypto currency. The only question is which coin will rule - and from the looks of it now, Bitcoin is the first in line.

this is a nice idea

however the graph of tech adoption highlights the flaw in the comparison.

The impressive adoption graphs are for *classes* of technology, not individual *examples* of the class. The adoption of the fax machine has the typical curve, not the adoption of the NEC FL5000 fax. The adoption curve of the smart phone, not the Nokia smartphone. The adoption rate of social media sites, not the adoption curve of myspace or friendster.

It still isn't clea what makes bitcoin THE crypto currency in future. (I'm not even sure what makes Amazon THE online shopping destination either, and if I knew, I'd buy stock in it).

What if the bitcoin collective fall out, perhaps spinning off incompatible alternative. What if it is adopted faster than the infrastructure can handle then becomes all messed up perhaps over a holiday online shopping season. What if mtgox gets totally hacked. Or perhaps it doesn't scale properly or misses features that users and companies really want to see?
then the next better competitor without those flaws will take over and then the value store part of the bitcoin equation will go into fast reverse - almost overnight. Can you be sure none of these things or another dozen things I have not thought of, happen?

So the topic could be "The future of Crypto currencies is clear to those .." not the future of Bitcoin.

Then the question is, for those who now find themselves using it to store value rather than to spend, are you clever enough to pick THE turn before anyone else, and get out? or are you just along for the ride much like a small investor in Worldcom or Lehman.

Thank you for the post.

Reality check Bitard.

Litecoin is $36. There is a huge demand for alternatives to the ponzi failure.

We are clearly the early adopters and we will be very wealthy in the future if we hold on to our coins

In April, there were only a few people in my life that knew about bitcoins, but they hadn`t invested and saw them mostly as currency for drugs. Now, just seven months later, most of the people I talk to just in passing know about them and it seems to have lost some of the drugs associations, but I still don`t really know anyone who`s invested.

Concurring with Hawker on this one.  I know approximately 20 people now who are aware of Bitcoin.  19 of those are only aware of it because I told them.

Today we had a local news channel talking about Bitcoin.  Awareness is about to grow at an exponential rate.

If I owned this forum I would make this thread a:

STICKY

nice post. thx.

That is a great post, thanks!  I believe I crossed the "Chasm" following the US Senate Committee meeting regarding crypto currency.  I've been trying to convince others are there are a lot of skeptics!  I'm not sure that we want this to grow too large too soon but it will be nice when more people begin to realize BTC's potential and future.

I am still a bit new to BTC myself, but I thought we were in the Early Adoption stage before reading OP. IMO BTC will have to crash one more time in order for it to succeed, unless banks get into the digital currency right now. After it crashes it will be here to stay.

I`d like to step up in defense of Mr. Ken Olsen. This quotation has been taken out of context for a long time and is not a proper representation of his thoughts about personal computers. People like to reference it though; I suppose it`s human nature to point and laugh at `authority figures` when they get something wrong, although this really isn`t fair.

Mr. Olsen was referring to the popular idea in the 1950s and 60s of a `master computer` that controlled the home environment, something similar to HAL in 2001: A Space Odyssey. Olsen believed that people wouldn`t want a `computer` to control their living conditions, such as preparing meals for them and keeping account of odds and ends in the house, because he believed it would interfere with our lifestyles. I`m not aware of anyone living with a HAL-like computer, aside from Tony Stark, so he`s basically right about this.

Mr. Olsen recognized the potential for personal computers, and owned early prototypes of his own.

http://www.snopes.com/quotes/kenolsen.asp

I`ve never heard that quote about TV, but it seems a reasonable prediction to make back in the days of black and white television, displayed on tiny, blurry screens. Television has definitely come a long way since then. Just for reference, this is what a new television looked like in 1946. Gives me a headache just thinking about it.



It`s not surprising to see someone predict the iPhone would fail; Apple has always had its critics and still does. Though when the iPhone came out in 2007 I seem to remember most people recognizing it as a big step in smartphone technology. Actually, I remember a lot more criticism surrounding the iPad. Part of that is due to the fact that the first gen iPad was a piece of crap with no multi-tasking support or camera, but it has since gone on to revolutionize the home PC market.

nice! although BTC has some unknown resistance in that banks are yet to play their hand on how they feel about it, many other techs didnt have that societal resistance. Also, who knows if other coins will replace BTC in the future, i agre btc is leading the way but plenty of room for others - But i guess youre kinda talking about general crypto situation anyway:)

Great effort trying to map where we are

Think we are still in the early adopter stage as well

Believe though that the next crash will winnow out most of the other alts leading to a welcome refocusing on btc by miners and other early adopters

This kind of thinking suffers from survivorship bias. What's not in your chart are adoption curves of technologies that failed to reach 90% penetration, that failed to gain traction - like Betamax, Segways and hundreds of "next year's must have gadget". Naturally you're aware of this since you wrote as much in the title of it, but many who look at this chart will think of it in the wrong way. They won't think "if Bitcoin follows the pattern of smartphone adoption it'll grow unexpectedly fast".

It's easy to pick a selection of technologies that had an S-curve, but it's hard to find all the technologies which had a U shaped curve. They failed so we don't remember them.

Bitcoin will do great but it's possible to realise this through more careful rational thinking.

Couldn't agree more....

Internet security will be as booming as Bitcoin itself! Mark my words!

The trezor can be connected to an android smartphone, so that would be really secure.
Later there could be more convenient solution for the average joe but we have to get aways from wallets that are on the computers, that will lead to a lot of hacks and it will make the news that random people got hacked of their money cue they clicked on a funny cat pic.

i remember when charlie munger called bitcoin "rat poison". i wouldn't like bitcoin if i was him, either.

warren buffett has an anti-gold posture, as well (from an article that made it's way around the 'net): http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/02/09/warren-buffett-berkshire-shareholder-letter/

In the Netherlands there are multiple outlets where you can already buy Bitcoin by ideal (online banking system). You have your Bitcoin within minutes and you have the possibilities to compare prices. Buying on a forum will be a temporary thing. We have to wait until transfer times reduce (if ever) and buying Btc is possible by credit card or paypal.