Topic: Bitcoin's Future Value, Weighted Scenario Analysis (Read 10089 times)

Ok guys, you can stop guessing. My sources(*) have confirmed case B is actually correct. BTC will replace fiat globally and be worth the aequivalent of todays $100T! This will happen precisely in October the 20th in the year 3514!

(*) Source: "The worst investment tips of all time", Year 3600 edition, BTC with a avg interest rate of 0.6%.

Most people think that there are "safe" investments and "unsafe" investments. This is a fallacy. Every investment has a profile of risks and uncertainties, and they differ among asset classes, jurisdictions etc.

Don't want to hijack your thread but I'm very curious, and asked you on pm also (but no answer*):

Don't you feel unsafe with that amount of money in banks? And by real estate, you want one property or a whole building of apartments / condos (investing so you can take rent)

*Also don't want to step the line

It is true that bitcoin's ascent will generate interesting stories about people who want to diversify their holdings. I cashed out about $3 million starting November and still none of the money has been used to buy the final product (real estate), and only half of it is in my bank. The current banking system is designed for maximum $50k transfers, and it takes really long to verify yourself in every nook and transfer in that small increments.

If 1 mBTC will ever be 10, I will do a naked skydive with a huge Bitcoin logo on my parachute and a small Bitcoin logo on my dick.

Guys... be realistic. Bitcoin is fun but going at 300,000 will make some people own what? 3,000,000,000!!? And that's just in Bitcoins.

Nobody has access to that kind of liquidity. Nobody. Bill Gates is rich, but he has buildings, jets, computers, wallpapers. Everthing is added and sum = his wealth.

Hi

i think option C is best realistic option (mBTC 50-500$)

C. Bitcoin becomes an important independent world currency or a reserve currency with real bills, moderate fractional reserve, etc. Then it can go to the same value as the stock of world's gold, which is in the same ballpark as the M1 money of USD, EUR or JPY. This would put 1mBTC=$300.  (50-500$)

+1

Scenario F has a high probability > 50% IMHO for Bitcoin but not for Cryptocurrencies as a whole.
It has become incredibly easy to trade Cryptocurrency a for Cryptocurrency b.
Scrypt is a major reason why Litecoin may be here to stay.
There is an endless possibility of new Cryptocurrencies with desirable features, possibly linked to different communities (just look at DOGE, without the meme it is nothing)
Bitcoin has plenty of room to grow but to think that there will be only one unifying Cryptocurrency is a Dream in my oppinion.

(yeah, the TCP/IP argument ... just look at DirectX vs OpenGL.)
There is no serious pressure to stick to one standard as the effort for adding Cryptocurrency X to your services is quite low, especially if services can exist that auto-trade to your preferred Cryptocurrency)

The UN estimated the global black market economy at $2tln USD 2008, which I think was very conservative.   Probably in half of those transactions both parties would benefit from using BTC.

A. Money becomes ubiquituous coupled with the proliferation of altcoins (thousands of them, perhaps everybody having his own coin),

this is a senerio I have also stated before in similar terms.

there is one proven way to crack bit coin private keys. Make an alt, and the wetware (human brain) will retrieve private keys and send you BTC.

The wetware is forced to conclusion they have to diversify.

To me it looks like everyone will be running their own chain, pos, to some extent, plus several side chains like chaf to ne attacked at cost to the attacker, who then will in turn face attack as they have had to divert hash, resources.

several larger chains/pos will emerge, as the main carriers, of wealth, but its not going to be a winner takes all. The BTC  decsion making process, while excellent cannot afford to agile enough to evolve fast enough due to market cap/importance. However alts can rise and die quickly with little repercussion.

Actually, this is already happening and could result in Scenario F : a new "new economy bubble". Look at the zillions of altcoins already in existence. I've got some Doges barking in my pocket (mobile phone) worth a couple of dollars. Mooncoin, issuing coins by the billions, is still worth something. Even Bytecoin, a complete 1:1 copy of Bitcoin and totally dead for a long period, is back and has always remained to have some value.

But don't take it from me, just look it up yourself.

The altcoins already play an essential role in the adoption of cryptocurrency and the exploration of its use. I do not see it as a danger to the prospects of this technology, but as an essential requirement thereof. Money (currency) will be freely available, but the value will be established by the free market. Hell, even now you can already buy your own altcoin for 100 mBTC.

_{I seriously think rpietila should create his own altcoin and use it for his services/endeavors as a token of trust/admiration/connection/whatever.}  

To me, this rise of the altcoins proofs that central command of money is not absolutely necessary for currency to work. Apparently, the concept of cryptocurrency has sufficient properties for the coins to be accepted as currency very easily. Of course, it's not that serious when its about fractions of a dollar, but the baby steps do not prove difficult. I bet non-tech people will have no problem using crypto in day to day life if the first 3 transactions clear and result in the groceries in their fridge. Apparently, the construction of agreement between participants that the coin has value is not that hard to achieve.

My exposure to Bitcoin is not as much as it has been. It may still rise to unbelievable heights but I see more value in the protocol itself and the use thereof that has not been established or even invented yet. Micro payments will be possible due to this technology and together with contextual computing, decentralising tendencies and crowdfunding/working, will mark a change in how we do things and get paid.

Society is moving from institutions (initially started as instruments) to emergent networks. The way money works will change (or... is changing already) as well from token to programmable software.

All this combined, the options are limitless.


Something much closer to the reality of tech than eternal faith in that what is now. Invest acccordingly.

rpietila, Thank you for your work. This is good speculation.

I would like to take it 1 step back toward the origin of the value of 1BTC. What is the value of 1BTC most equivalent to? A % of mining equiment energy cost? A % of BTC transactions per second? A % of users? A % of the brand?

If these can be established at all, can they be charted into all the factors that make up the value of 1BTC and by how much?

There's always the possibility that the quantum computer is already there for mining purposes as well...

did you put a computer power (i.e Quantum physic's) being implemented in future to break even the SHA256 code? i think it's just a question of time to see real power's that realy affect BTC in his root's, bad news also included like the Chinese Gov. banning it from institutional bank, maybe even a worldwide hacker (group?) knowing a bug and stolen all the bitcoins...

I like the BTC concept to send and do payment's at high speed but it seam's BTC has a long range target mixed with computational power, witch is translated in "Loss"

LOL @ 3... 

By the way; all of the above should be obsolete ONLY IF *one* company incorporates btc... Paypal.

Why does everyone seem to think Bitcoin is a threat to government?

Its not!

Its a big threat to the banking industry though, and because of that, its actually something that government finds very useful.

I would not be surprised that in 20 years, Bitcoin, the protocol, will be used to do all small value internet transactions but it won't be bitcoin, the coin we are currently trading - that will never actually hit the big time, with the government releasing their own version, a bitdollar or bitsterling as soon as it becomes idiot proof to use. This will be the cash of the future, and be linked in value to the fiat its representing.

The banks, on the other hand, are going to find that Bitcoin removes their unique relationship with governments, and will find that they will start losing their huge protected profits as people can start doing crowd sourced mortgages at real free market low rates.  This does the same to the banks that email does to the postal service.  It doesn't kill it, it just makes it irrelevant to the public.

However, for Government, bitcoin offers automatic taxation on all trades, the removal of the need to chase debts, and the costs of having to do so. The only problem is knowing where its borders are - much like the issues that the US has with knowing who it can spy on and who it can't - and what it does about it!

Personally, I don't see my current Bitcoin investments having any value by 2030!

I have few ideas to unlock the btc value for everyone.

1. top 100 holders give away certain amount of btc to as many individuals as possible when btc price increases every 2 folds.
this enhances the principle of btc. if mbtc wants to be recognized as USD 5000, it needs to convince everyone on the earth, btc represents ethic of freedom, transparency and fairness far beyond low-cost and anonymity. This will also distinguish btc from other alternative copy-cat coins.

2. open eCommerce site for chinese folks to accept btc, which I would open such service

3. educate all the hookers, massage, escort female or other service providers to start accepting btc, service providers who don't need to buy merchandise for resale are most likely to be btc adapter.

more ideas are coming...

What is wealth? I mean litterally what is it? Imagine someone you know with a lot of money. Do you think you can read about him on the news papers? Most big-cash guys are staying low and that's for a good reason. Their "job" is to control wealth. Being bombed by inflation tools like derivatives, bailouts, stock market bubbles etc, it's rather difficult for them to control things like they used to...

Bitcoin may be able to "fix" this. Imagine some of them holding a great amount of coins (this accumulation is happening as we speak). One who controls the wealth, can control the price; isn't it? I really don't know if they can make it happen. They certainly have the financial tools and resources to do so. I really don't know what to wish for; I want them to succeed or not? I guess in a future not far away from now; they will be ones of the rich (bitcoinwise) as they used to be in their previous monetary life.

Besides of that; there's a strong possibility that these guys see a grave danger coming from bitcoin. This will cause the mother of all storms to its price. People who believe in it though; must be wise and keep their positions. In either case, they won't have to lose anything... the ones who came to short some cash out on the other hand... well I feel sorry for them.

I didn't say it's small, just not widely used, a slight difference. Anyway, it's hard to guess black market cap, that could be using bitcoins.

Early bitcoin enthusiasts, myself included, have a natural tendency to envision an inevitable struggle between bitcoin (the good) and fiat (the bad), with one ultimately conquering the other. Perhaps. But lately I have become interested in thinking about how they may coexist symbiotically; at least in the short term, and maybe in the long term. After all, it is not in anyone's best interest if bitcoin becomes so overwhelmingly popular so quickly (as some would imagine) that the fiat system collapses; this could be too destabilizing and lead to war and chaos. And the destruction of the internet, and then of bitcoin ... unless Jeff Garzik's bitcoin node satellites are up and running by then ....

Ideally, imho, existing institutions like paypal, amazon, banks, credit cards, Western Union, etc will find ways to make use of bitcoin and in so doing, will strengthen bitcoin (maybe even make themselves richer) in a way that does not destabilize the current system. However, a side effect will be that in a time of localized chaos (e.g.: war in Syria, economic isolation like Iran, hyperinflation in Zimbabwe), bitcoin will make it easy for the population to build a capitalist / free economy from the ashes, and to do so *quickly*. Bitcoin would be as important as social media was to the Arab spring, but better. Imagine if this vision of bitcoin were presented to Congress or the CIA. They would then be in a position to promote and protect bitcoin!

I had not considered that Bernanke might be using BTC to absorb inflation. It is an interesting idea, although I'm not sure I follow what his thought process might be. The USD monetary base has roughly tripled; however, broad measures of the money supply have not expanded, at least not nearly as much as the monetary base, and inflation is not (so far? ...) very high. So how exactly does bitcoin fit into that? (At least, from Bernanke's point of view. Assuming he has even given it much thought.) 

One does exclude the other, in my opinion. Dollar/Fiat and Bitcoin can coexist since they each serve a different purpose. Nevertheless, I presume the exact opposite. That is; the BTC-Banks bond getting stronger with banks fulfilling the "escrow" side of things.

Chances are they already at it (it was reported at the senate hearing). I have mentioned it previously in the troll-thread (urm... I mean wall observer ) that there's a strong possibility men like Bernanke are using BTC to absorb a part (or the whole) of the inflation around the world.

If they succeed, BTC has an enormous crash and everyone stays away for about 100 years. If they fail, BTC gets its throne as the primary international coin around the globe. Win-Win situation... It's an extreme scenario; but yet one that we cannot rule out.