Thanks @jackg @Tytanowy Janusz
Good explanation by @mikeywithm, given me new things inside Bitcoins, so thanks.
Topic: Bitcoins in 2030 - page 2. (Read 409 times)
Well currently average price for bitcoin transfer is like 3$ and like 3-4k transaction can be put in one block. It means that 9-12k $ in fees goes to miners. With further segwit adoption, implementing new segwit-like updates (f.e Taproot and Schnorr), lightning network we can double or triple this. I think that in next 10 years it might cover lower rewards. Price should also increase since even now bitcoin can be considered as deflationary coin (production - lost coins annually - wrong transfer, lost wallets, sudden death of wallet owners without passing key to family).
1.5625 BTC as rewards for those who run the nudesnodes.
Running a bitcoin "node" doesn't earn you anything, the mining rewards go to "mining nodes" and given the current nature of mining, at least 90% of the rewards go to people who don't even know how to run a node.
Now back to your question, exactly a year back I posted this thread called "For how long can we actually mine", I tried to evaluate the future of mining and what should bitcoin be worth in order to
Quote
1- Mining to be as profitable as it is today.
2- The incentives for mining remains the same.
3- Mining decentralization does not fade away.
4- 51% attack cost / difficulty does not decrease.
2- The incentives for mining remains the same.
3- Mining decentralization does not fade away.
4- 51% attack cost / difficulty does not decrease.
And this came out:
This ignores the "unknown" block fees (So the "required" price is less than what shows in that table) because we don't know how will bitcoin be 10 or 20 years from now, are you going to increase block size to meet mass adoption on-chain or are we just going to keep the blockchain exclusive for huge final-settlements that are worth hundreds of thousands of dollars in order to fuel the mining incentives with a small block size?
I tend to agree that the second theory will be more likely, I also seem to prefer that approach (for reasons that are off-topic), but all in all, Bitcoin price is essential to its existence or at least to its securty and reliability.
I was here when the block reward was 25. Proportionally a drop to 6.25 from 25 is the same as a drop from 6.25 to 1.5625.
If we're still going after the next two halving, the block reward will be able to stay at that price and the value of the coin will just increase with it - like it has done.
Alternatively, a country with cheap electricity supplies can assist with the mining if they wish as it would still be profitible for them (for example i think some nordic countries are paying 0.05 cents per wkh and Canada is similar). A lot of countries moving to renewable energy also means there may be points when electricity is more redundant than necessary (with things like wind) which can also be channelled into mining.
Hobbyistic miners will also remain a thing and keep growing too...
If we're still going after the next two halving, the block reward will be able to stay at that price and the value of the coin will just increase with it - like it has done.
Alternatively, a country with cheap electricity supplies can assist with the mining if they wish as it would still be profitible for them (for example i think some nordic countries are paying 0.05 cents per wkh and Canada is similar). A lot of countries moving to renewable energy also means there may be points when electricity is more redundant than necessary (with things like wind) which can also be channelled into mining.
Hobbyistic miners will also remain a thing and keep growing too...
Bearing thread What's with this odd generation?
On the thread Satoshi said :
So I'm trying to get table for halving period to period with expected :
Date | Block Reward |
.... | .... |
2028 | 1.5625 |
.... | .... |
Based expected table above... that is for next 20 years((around).
1.5625 BTC as rewards for those who run the nodes.
Theymos had questions about could that's be profitability for those running the nude? and Satoshi no reply the post anymore.
Based on developments(10 years), does bitcoins went good so far? I mean does bitcoins had good new tech, BIP (Bitcoin Improvement Proposals), cost of electricity or else services period to period?
Does anyone want to sharing about predict for 10 years in new tech... or cost electricity ?
Keys for Bitcoins keep standing is miners, so it's will be talking about they must on side profitable.
If you're have calculator or formula for prices Bitcoins supposed ?
I'm glad to hear/reads your wild predictions. cause it's like one point to predict Bitcoins will be.
On the thread Satoshi said :
Right. Otherwise we couldn't have a finite limit of 21 million coins, because there would always need to be some minimum reward for generating. In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for nodes. I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
They're discuss about fee/rewards for miners.. but I could assume Satoshi has little doubt for it(I can see through Satoshi edit the post), yea it's quite hard to predict for next 20 years.So I'm trying to get table for halving period to period with expected :
Date | Block Reward |
.... | .... |
2028 | 1.5625 |
.... | .... |
Based expected table above... that is for next 20 years((around).
1.5625 BTC as rewards for those who run the nodes.
Theymos had questions about could that's be profitability for those running the nude? and Satoshi no reply the post anymore.
Based on developments(10 years), does bitcoins went good so far? I mean does bitcoins had good new tech, BIP (Bitcoin Improvement Proposals), cost of electricity or else services period to period?
Does anyone want to sharing about predict for 10 years in new tech... or cost electricity ?
Keys for Bitcoins keep standing is miners, so it's will be talking about they must on side profitable.
If you're have calculator or formula for prices Bitcoins supposed ?
I'm glad to hear/reads your wild predictions. cause it's like one point to predict Bitcoins will be.
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