Two days past the biggest one-week crash in Bitcoin history. What have we learned? What should we expect next?
Two important things we learned: one, Bitcoin isn't really stable yet, and two, a bubble will pop as soon as everyone stops calling it a bubble. But is the bubble done?
In my opinion, yes. A glance at Bitcoin's brief history reveals that at no time did the correction from a rally to all-time heights, bubble or not, dip below the high from before the rally. That is, the only rallies that were smaller than their corrections were rallies that are corrections themselves.
Normally, there would be months of downtrend after a new all-time high (even more if the rally was big). However, the record-breaking crash of late happened to shave off almost the last month of growth. And that last month of growth started from $32—the point where the previous all-time high rested.
My claim is that the rally did not start until one month ago when $32 was broken—everything before that was a correction from $2. If history holds, this bubble's popping will not overtake the rally that caused it. And if the rally started at $32, then it looks like the bubble has finished its popping.
I'm not saying that we will have an easy path to $200 by any chance. If the last bubble was any indication, it could be years until we reach $260 again, even though there's less ground to be made up this time. But I will claim it's easier to get to $260 than it is to $40, which at the current price means the price is likely to recover.
So let us wait and see.
we only dropped from 200 whatever because of a dodgey exchange. This event has given great impetus for other exchanges to open and, the market will be come more resiliant
