The most accurate measure is Publicly-Traded Bitcoin Miners Holdings, which sees it rise in the period -6 months before halving and +6 months after.
Last cycle
Topic: Bitcoin’s long-term investors own over 76% of all BTC for the first time - page 2. (Read 392 times)
October 21, 2023, 07:09:08 PM
People are holding for a specific time and for a specific reason. In the end, he wants to keep the Bitcoin to sell it later. Otherwise, he would have sent it to the address proving the burning. There will be a golden opportunity every four years to sell Bitcoin at the highest possible price and buy it at the lowest possible price. Therefore, expect that each holding will sell a percentage during this period and will buy a percentage when The price drops again, and relying on any statistics that tell you that this can be predicted will not give accurate results.
The most accurate measure is Publicly-Traded Bitcoin Miners Holdings, which sees it rise in the period -6 months before halving and +6 months after.
Last cycle
The most accurate measure is Publicly-Traded Bitcoin Miners Holdings, which sees it rise in the period -6 months before halving and +6 months after.
Last cycle
October 21, 2023, 06:09:39 PM
This is according to Glassnode and I saw it on the news
https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:b63b789df094b:0-hodling-hard-bitcoin-s-long-term-investors-own-over-76-of-all-btc-for-the-first-time/
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-long-term-investors-own-76-percent-btc
If people are not selling 76% of bitcoin that are in circulation, it means people are holding it and you know what this could mean for the next halving and the approval of spot bitcoin ETF by the US SEC.
HODL
https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:b63b789df094b:0-hodling-hard-bitcoin-s-long-term-investors-own-over-76-of-all-btc-for-the-first-time/
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-long-term-investors-own-76-percent-btc
If people are not selling 76% of bitcoin that are in circulation, it means people are holding it and you know what this could mean for the next halving and the approval of spot bitcoin ETF by the US SEC.
HODL
If you are an investor, then you don't want stress and pressure. What others say is right: you should hold long-term. This is a good strategy, especially as we are getting closer to Bitcoin halving, and we know very well that there will be a rise in Bitcoin in the market.
So for others out there who want to keep up with the short-term and then you know yourself that your knowledge is not enough, don't expect that you will get a good profit in the short-term because the risk is high.
October 21, 2023, 03:23:47 PM
Yeah, that's what we expect to see people buying and selling but holding as well, the market remain favourable to its holders, as the halving us gradually approaching, new bitcoin will be mined and the value will be added to the supply stream while people will be buying the more and also selling the more because of the high volatile market following every halving, many Institutional holders would also have released to acquire more while the value increases together with the corresponding demands.
I the demand for Bitcoin is on the increase and at that, anyone buying Bitcoin at this point is directly contributing to the current condition and state of the market, and still be on time because until Bitcoin recover back to above 40k price, any price below 40k is still a discount price altogether.
October 21, 2023, 09:58:50 AM
This is according to Glassnode and I saw it on the news
https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:b63b789df094b:0-hodling-hard-bitcoin-s-long-term-investors-own-over-76-of-all-btc-for-the-first-time/
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-long-term-investors-own-76-percent-btc
If people are not selling 76% of bitcoin that are in circulation, it means people are holding it and you know what this could mean for the next halving and the approval of spot bitcoin ETF by the US SEC.
HODL
https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:b63b789df094b:0-hodling-hard-bitcoin-s-long-term-investors-own-over-76-of-all-btc-for-the-first-time/
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-long-term-investors-own-76-percent-btc
If people are not selling 76% of bitcoin that are in circulation, it means people are holding it and you know what this could mean for the next halving and the approval of spot bitcoin ETF by the US SEC.
HODL
Yeah, that's what we expect to see people buying and selling but holding as well, the market remain favourable to its holders, as the halving us gradually approaching, new bitcoin will be mined and the value will be added to the supply stream while people will be buying the more and also selling the more because of the high volatile market following every halving, many Institutional holders would also have released to acquire more while the value increases together with the corresponding demands.
October 21, 2023, 09:19:12 AM
It is difficult to say something meaningful about the figures presented because I did not want to go into the methodology of how they concluded that it was 76%, but if it is something similar to those studies that concluded that we irretrievably lost about 4 million BTC because no one transferred them 4 or 5 years, then these are just simple guesses and nothing more.
From my point of view, it somehow does not seem very realistic that 3/4 of all BTC in circulation (which is about 14.6 million BTC) is not for sale, and at the same time the price of those on the market is not much higher than it is currently. Although this may show how small the market really is and how little demand really is.
When I just remember those stories about how there won't be enough BTC for everyone who wants it, and from 46 million millionaires a couple of years ago, today we have reached the number of some 60 million people who can be called that. If only 10% of them wanted to buy 1 BTC, all this that is supposedly for sale today would not be enough
From my point of view, it somehow does not seem very realistic that 3/4 of all BTC in circulation (which is about 14.6 million BTC) is not for sale, and at the same time the price of those on the market is not much higher than it is currently. Although this may show how small the market really is and how little demand really is.
When I just remember those stories about how there won't be enough BTC for everyone who wants it, and from 46 million millionaires a couple of years ago, today we have reached the number of some 60 million people who can be called that. If only 10% of them wanted to buy 1 BTC, all this that is supposedly for sale today would not be enough
October 21, 2023, 07:22:49 AM
Like I always say, the decision for the price is based on the market, not the rest. So even there is just 1 bitcoin left in the market, then whoever owns that 1 bitcoin and puts it up for sale will end up deciding the price of bitcoin.
If you own bitcoin then you are not deciding the price, it is in your wallet and you are not selling it, how could that change the market price of it, it would not and it would not cause the price to move at all. So, the holders are not the ones that decide on the price of bitcoin, sure they buy at one time to hold it first, and that is good idea and sure it may have made it go up, but since it's long term, it is just one purchase and not really a big deal.
I believe that we are going to see it go up more in the future but that is based on traders who sell and that will make all the difference. I get that it may not all that simple for the time being, but we need to end up being a lot more hyped about it to buy more and make it go up.
If you own bitcoin then you are not deciding the price, it is in your wallet and you are not selling it, how could that change the market price of it, it would not and it would not cause the price to move at all. So, the holders are not the ones that decide on the price of bitcoin, sure they buy at one time to hold it first, and that is good idea and sure it may have made it go up, but since it's long term, it is just one purchase and not really a big deal.
I believe that we are going to see it go up more in the future but that is based on traders who sell and that will make all the difference. I get that it may not all that simple for the time being, but we need to end up being a lot more hyped about it to buy more and make it go up.
and
Just to balance the potential over-bullishness, these "long-term investors" can just as easily dump their holdings at any time they want. Not because they're currently holding, doesn't automatically mean they're waiting for new all-time highs.
Are both part of the Dynamics happening.
Investors have seen the :
2013 runup followed by the 2014 crash
2017 runup followed by the 2018 crash
2021 runup followed by the 2022 crash.
so many of us my self included are prepping and hoping for a repeat of history.
October 21, 2023, 07:19:50 AM
If people are not selling 76% of bitcoin that are in circulation, it means people are holding it and you know what this could mean for the next halving and the approval of spot bitcoin ETF by the US SEC.
HODL
Investors who are still holding today are already in a profitable position if they release the amount of Bitcoin they own. In making a decision to sell or continue holding, investors have other considerations that can delay the decision to sell and continue in a holding position even though long-term investors can release their Bitcoin holdings at any time as mk4 said.HODL
The consideration of delaying and continuing to hold may be due to waiting for the next halving and to me that is a reasonable consideration.
October 21, 2023, 06:35:29 AM
This has to be. I mean they know what Bitcoins are capable of. They are investing and trusting in Bitcoins. So definitely they have to own a large amount of total supply. Moreover, they have achieved this number, due to the regular accumulation of Bitcoins. As they have planned for long term, so they regularly buy or collect Bitcoins and sell in very few occasions. So if you ask me, then yes I am not surprised at all by seeing the numbers.
Yes, and for sure they know what's coming and that's why they continue to hold and accumulate, and again it's only Bitcoin that can we can really trust, as compare to thousands of altcoins. Yeah, they can yield more than Bitcoin in the bull run, nevertheless, it's very hard to put our faith in them as any time then can do a rug pull.
So that is a huge numbers in my opinion, and I believed that it's mostly retails investors, just like rest of us. For institutions, I will not be surprised that they are going to stock pile. But for us, we should also do the same and be ready for the upcoming bull run next year. Plenty of time for us to accumulate.
October 21, 2023, 05:29:44 AM
Thanks for sharing, but for me, I would need more facts before believing all these guys calling figures, and statistics calling are not facts until proven as such. I know there are heavy long-term hodlers and investors which could explain why Bitcoin could hold some liquidity in hundreds of billions without blinking, but not that much.
Come to think of it, in 2021 at the AHT, Bitcoin hit a market capitalization of $1.28 trillion but later reached lower levels and was even lower in December last year judging by the price attained (I can't remember the cap then) before growing steadily again over time. And now, also with the help of the recent buying, it is at $581.5 billion according to Coinmarketcap.
If you plus, divide, multiply and subtract you would naturally know that 76% is not feasible since a drop from the ATH is way more than 50%. How could over 24% (100-76)% drop the market in liquidity as much as that if truly 76% ardent long-term holders are in for the entire coin in circulation?
Come to think of it, in 2021 at the AHT, Bitcoin hit a market capitalization of $1.28 trillion but later reached lower levels and was even lower in December last year judging by the price attained (I can't remember the cap then) before growing steadily again over time. And now, also with the help of the recent buying, it is at $581.5 billion according to Coinmarketcap.
If you plus, divide, multiply and subtract you would naturally know that 76% is not feasible since a drop from the ATH is way more than 50%. How could over 24% (100-76)% drop the market in liquidity as much as that if truly 76% ardent long-term holders are in for the entire coin in circulation?
October 20, 2023, 07:45:32 AM
This has to be. I mean they know what Bitcoins are capable of. They are investing and trusting in Bitcoins. So definitely they have to own a large amount of total supply. Moreover, they have achieved this number, due to the regular accumulation of Bitcoins. As they have planned for long term, so they regularly buy or collect Bitcoins and sell in very few occasions. So if you ask me, then yes I am not surprised at all by seeing the numbers.
October 20, 2023, 07:07:20 AM
Even though almost 80% are holding their coins there are still lots on exchanges which can be sold and unless we get real adoption it will be tough to create a supply shortage of bitcoin.
The number of coins on exchanges is the lowest it's been in years (around 2018) and consistently declining since 2020. We've certainly had a supply shortage since then. The reality is having a low supply available on exchanges is meaningless without there being a demand higher than the currently available supply. Once there is increased demand there it will be easy to see a supply shock.
Also the higher bitcoin goes the more people will deposit back into the exchange to sell for fiat. This happened in 2021 where the higher we went the more of the long term coins started to move.
This is precisely the dynamics of a bull market - long-term holders selling - as we've seen in each previous bull market. Ironically the fact long-term holders are continuing to increase isn't confirmation of a bull market, in fact the opposite is true, it means Bitcoin isn't in a bull market what so ever. But it does mean - or should mean - that once a bull market starts there will be much less supply available initially.
You can see this more clearly from the 1Y-2Y holders who having been selling since 2022 despite 2Y+ holders continuing to hold. They've slowed down but still selling after going from 20% to around 12%.
October 20, 2023, 05:19:35 AM
Yup, it's what's happening now. Most of the holders aren't willing to sell at any point now especially since the halving is approaching. We can just say that the majority are just waiting for the major push but this doesn't mean that there's not that much in circulation, there's still a lot but if you ask each individual, most of us just don't want to sell when we're not optimistic of doing so. We're just trying to be wiser the second time around and waiting for the right time after the halving.
October 20, 2023, 12:17:18 AM
Even though almost 80% are holding their coins there are still lots on exchanges which can be sold and unless we get real adoption it will be tough to create a supply shortage of bitcoin.
Also the higher bitcoin goes the more people will deposit back into the exchange to sell for fiat. This happened in 2021 where the higher we went the more of the long term coins started to move.
Also the higher bitcoin goes the more people will deposit back into the exchange to sell for fiat. This happened in 2021 where the higher we went the more of the long term coins started to move.
October 19, 2023, 08:42:36 PM
A big percentage of Bitcoin's overall supply must be kept by their owners, but it doesn't mean that since 76% of the Bitcoin that is in circulation are not being sold, they are hodled. I think a considerable portion of these coins that are not moving are either lost or forgotten. Satoshi himself has more than a million coins that are dormant. And then there are those old coins that are permanently inaccessible because of lost keys. There are also coins that aren't moving because they're kept by custodians.
But still I believe many are eagerly waiting for the bull run that follows the halving. So they're not selling.
But still I believe many are eagerly waiting for the bull run that follows the halving. So they're not selling.
October 19, 2023, 07:53:53 PM
(.....)
If people are not selling 76% of bitcoin that are in circulation, it means people are holding it and you know what this could mean for the next halving and the approval of spot bitcoin ETF by the US SEC.
(....)
It seems everyone is ready for the Bitcoin block halving. It's more likely the Bitcoin block halving is their indicator of why they are not selling.If people are not selling 76% of bitcoin that are in circulation, it means people are holding it and you know what this could mean for the next halving and the approval of spot bitcoin ETF by the US SEC.
(....)
With the current price of Bitcoin, I remember the pre-bull run last 2017-2018. Which months before Bitcoin block halving, you will see how the price of Bitcoin started to climb.
October 19, 2023, 06:20:15 PM
I am not entirely sure how good this is, I mean the number doesn't mean anything to me because there is nothing to compare, sure its the highest ever but is it a good things highest ever or a bad thing? While its good that there are a lot of people who would like to buy and hold, its also bad that the market is getting lesser and lesser liquid, and that could cause some trouble. Imagine if you owned all the bitcoins in the world, and you charge a million dollars per bitcoin, what happens if nobody wants it? Maybe people give up saying you are the only one and think its too centralized? At the end this is something that looks good, but only good if people keep on demanding and buying, as we can see its not even over 30k right now, so it doesn't seem to have good impact yet.
October 19, 2023, 04:27:57 PM
Most probably those hodler bought their Bitcoin at a cheaper price and they are just waiting for the next bull run before taking profit. This could be a good study about Bitcoin adaption as well and I’m also part of it since most of my holdings are with Bitcoin right now. The next hull market will be a big thing, let’s hope that whales will not take profit at the early part of the bull market so we can still see the real peak with Bitcoin.
October 19, 2023, 02:51:51 PM
I wonder if that would be to indicate saturation in buying at all, if they already have so much have we much left in reserve to buy more. However the action recently has been to close above the 200 day average and generally it seems we can move far closer to 30k then the prior 20k orbit we had been holding after losing prior gains in this year. Obviously the wild rumors back and forth dont add clarity, its much required that we iron out all these fears and bullish trends to find one that can last longer then a month or so.
October 19, 2023, 12:29:15 PM
Signaling that investors are ready for the upcoming HODL, perhaps with these two news [Halving and Spot ETF] to be approved by the SEC makes a lot of confidence from them to stay HODL in preparation.
It would not be surprising if some of them missed the previous ATH train and now they have started to hold back for the next cycle in addition to the news of the ETF by the SEC this clearly can affect everything they believe in maybe with more than 70% holders it is something positive that can indicate they are ready to look forward to bullish.
It would not be surprising if some of them missed the previous ATH train and now they have started to hold back for the next cycle in addition to the news of the ETF by the SEC this clearly can affect everything they believe in maybe with more than 70% holders it is something positive that can indicate they are ready to look forward to bullish.
October 19, 2023, 11:59:16 AM
It's appears that people are getting more prepared for this coming halving than we have ever had in the past. Many are concerned about holding what they have and looking for means to add more to it, which increases the number of buyers in the market, and there are fewer people willing to sell at this point.
I don't know if this is just the amount of faith and belief people have in this coming halving or if this also has something to do with ETF having a higher chance of getting approved, which will bring about positive growth in the market.
Everyone seems to really be preparing themselves and doesn't want to be taken by surprise. If people can continue holding and no one is willing to sell, we might likely experience a bull run even before the halving time when there is scarcity. There is only one thing that could come afterward, which is an increase in price.
I don't know if this is just the amount of faith and belief people have in this coming halving or if this also has something to do with ETF having a higher chance of getting approved, which will bring about positive growth in the market.
Everyone seems to really be preparing themselves and doesn't want to be taken by surprise. If people can continue holding and no one is willing to sell, we might likely experience a bull run even before the halving time when there is scarcity. There is only one thing that could come afterward, which is an increase in price.
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