Bitcoin's Market Performance During the Christmas Period

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Quote from: Relonage on December 25, 2023, 01:40:55 AM

Bitcoin's market performance during the Christmas period over the past several years has been as follows:

- 2022: Decrease of 2.7%
- 2021: Decrease of 11.9%
- 2020: Increase of 22.3%
- 2019: Decrease of 1.1%
- 2018: Decrease of 5.3%
- 2017: Increase of 4.1%

Performance like that can still be said to be good and very normal because Bitcoin is very different from other cryptocurrencies on the market so its performance is always different from the others. And now everyone can also see how it performs after Christmas because the improvement can still be seen even though it still hasn't surpassed the $45K price tag.

Quote from: kotajikikox on December 27, 2023, 11:16:49 PM

not bad performance for the past Decembers but what we have now is different because we are nearing closing the year it has a good run and still running good so maybe this year will be different from those passed Decembers and the good indications that History not just repeating itself.

Obviously that is not a bad performance and now this is also the case where Bitcoin's performance itself is still quite good and has not experienced a significant decline. And if a major increase still doesn't happen by the end of this year, perhaps the closing price for the year will still be at a little over $44K or still below $45K for Bitcoin.

kryptqnick

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I agree with those asking the op to share more information about the calculations. While it makes sense that some people cash out near Christmas because they want to buy presents for their families and friends, there are very different ways to calculate the price increase/decrease. If it's a 24-hour change, I think it's way too short. If it's a 7-day change, that's a different story. But let's also not forget that in many countries the New Year is a bigger holiday than Christmas, so perhaps the whole period between Christmas and the New Year should count as a period of interest.
I also want to point out that while the op's results show a decrease in 4 out of 6 cases, only once the decrease is significant (in 2021). Minor decreases or increases don't really matter, in my opinion, because they happen all the time.

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Quote from: deathcode on December 27, 2023, 10:27:25 PM

Quote from: DapanasFruit on December 27, 2023, 10:07:19 PM

The holiday season is usually the time when the crypto market can be doing some decrease in activities and also the time when a good number of people may turn their crypto holdings into cash...hence Bitcoin is inclined to be bearish though we still have to see the final number for 2023 since there are still remaining days of the year but what I understand is that this year Bitcoin is actually not doing so bad and it is due to the excitement coming from the offing ETF approval and the halving in 2024.

Bitcoin is still quite strong at the moment. Maybe what you say is true because of some of the news you mentioned. and not many holders are releasing their Bitcoins for holiday purposes.
but the impact of high transaction fees may also influence some holders not to sell their Bitcoins. especially those who hold Bitcoins in their wallets and have to send them to an exchange, as that requires quite high fees.

Looking at market price movements this year, it doesn't seem too bad for Bitcoin, even though most people think that many people need cash during the Christmas and New Year holidays, but with the news about the Bitcoin halving in 2024, most people assume that Bitcoin will The price has increased so that the option to store Bitcoin is increasingly being implemented nowadays, some are even using it to increase their investment assets in Bitcoin.

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Quote from: MusaMohamed on December 25, 2023, 01:45:30 AM

But a more important point is Bitcoin halving will happen in April 2024, even if SEC. refuse all Bitcoin Spot ETF applications, 4 more months will be enough for Bitcoin to recover.

Honestly, I'm skeptical about a recovery during the halving. Looking back at last year, Bitcoin had this super exciting bull run about a year after the halving. Yeah, it might take some more time before we see Bitcoin heading to the moon.

I'm still unsure about the ETF, so in the near future, Bitcoin might experience a bit of a price shake-up. It could go bearish, maybe down to around $40k or even $38k (worst-case scenario). This isn't really a prediction, but gearing up for the worst-case scenario isn't a bad idea.

Imo, short-term = hard to promise, cause ETF
mid-term = looks a bit favorable for the Bitcoin market due to the halving,
long run = I still believe in Bitcoin,

kotajikikox

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Quote from: Relonage on December 25, 2023, 01:40:55 AM

Bitcoin's market performance during the Christmas period over the past several years has been as follows:

- 2022: Decrease of 2.7%
- 2021: Decrease of 11.9%
- 2020: Increase of 22.3%
- 2019: Decrease of 1.1%
- 2018: Decrease of 5.3%
- 2017: Increase of 4.1%

not bad performance for the past Decembers but what we have now is different because we are nearing closing the year it has a good run and still running good so maybe this year will be different from those passed Decembers and the good indications that History not just repeating itself.

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Quote from: deathcode on December 27, 2023, 10:27:25 PM

Quote from: DapanasFruit on December 27, 2023, 10:07:19 PM

The holiday season is usually the time when the crypto market can be doing some decrease in activities and also the time when a good number of people may turn their crypto holdings into cash...hence Bitcoin is inclined to be bearish though we still have to see the final number for 2023 since there are still remaining days of the year but what I understand is that this year Bitcoin is actually not doing so bad and it is due to the excitement coming from the offing ETF approval and the halving in 2024.

Bitcoin is still quite strong at the moment. Maybe what you say is true because of some of the news you mentioned. and not many holders are releasing their Bitcoins for holiday purposes.
but the impact of high transaction fees may also influence some holders not to sell their Bitcoins. especially those who hold Bitcoins in their wallets and have to send them to an exchange, as that requires quite high fees.

The reasons you both give make sense for bitcoin's price movement in recent days, but we shouldn't be too surprised when things don't move as usual. Because the future is unpredictable and we cannot expect history to always repeat itself exactly. The demand for bitcoin is different each year so there will be different movements, it doesn't have to be close to major holidays or at the end of the year people will always sell their bitcoins for cash. Especially when the Halving is coming closer than ever and selling bitcoin at this time is very sensitive and risky. I think everyone knows this, so a lot of people didn't sell their bitcoins over the past Christmases, and I also believe they won't sell their bitcoins as we head into the new year.

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Quote from: DapanasFruit on December 27, 2023, 10:07:19 PM

The holiday season is usually the time when the crypto market can be doing some decrease in activities and also the time when a good number of people may turn their crypto holdings into cash...hence Bitcoin is inclined to be bearish though we still have to see the final number for 2023 since there are still remaining days of the year but what I understand is that this year Bitcoin is actually not doing so bad and it is due to the excitement coming from the offing ETF approval and the halving in 2024.

Bitcoin is still quite strong at the moment. Maybe what you say is true because of some of the news you mentioned. and not many holders are releasing their Bitcoins for holiday purposes.
but the impact of high transaction fees may also influence some holders not to sell their Bitcoins. especially those who hold Bitcoins in their wallets and have to send them to an exchange, as that requires quite high fees.

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The holiday season is usually the time when the crypto market can be doing some decrease in activities and also the time when a good number of people may turn their crypto holdings into cash...hence Bitcoin is inclined to be bearish though we still have to see the final number for 2023 since there are still remaining days of the year but what I understand is that this year Bitcoin is actually not doing so bad and it is due to the excitement coming from the offing ETF approval and the halving in 2024.

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I’m actually surprised to find that on most Christmases there’s actually been a downturn instead of and up tick. I would think since the topic of bitcoin tends to come up a lot during family Christmas get together, that more people would be buying based off that, but as you point out that’s typically not such the case. I wonder how January tends to perform ..

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Quote from: Relonage on December 25, 2023, 01:40:55 AM

However, past performance is not indicative of future results, and various factors can influence Bitcoin's price movement beyond historical patterns.

Thanks for sharing the stats but what is the source of these stats, did you take them from some site if yes then please mention the reference as well for authenticity or did you calculate them manually?

I was also thinking/observing that in the Christmas market can fluctuate under the shadow of current sentiments about ETF's results being announced on 10th January. I concluded that the market will be very volatile in the first days of January. And besides all that, I all thought the market might be highly volatile in the last 10 days of December but so far it is doing good and keeping the support of $43k.

You provided stats, showing a pattern that is very easy to detect and that is, in 2017 the price increased and after then for two years it decreased and then it increased in 2020 and it then decreased for the next two years and now the third year 2023 it might increase as per pattern. And the funny thing is price is increasing and not following the previous two years's trend or average trend either.

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Quote from: Relonage on December 25, 2023, 01:40:55 AM

Bitcoin's market performance during the Christmas period over the past several years has been as follows:

- 2022: Decrease of 2.7%
- 2021: Decrease of 11.9%
- 2020: Increase of 22.3%
- 2019: Decrease of 1.1%
- 2018: Decrease of 5.3%
- 2017: Increase of 4.1%

Since 2017, over the seven days following Christmas, the probability of a price decrease has been over 66%. This trend indicates a prevalent likelihood of a decline in Bitcoin's value during this particular period. It's noticeable that the market sentiment during Christmas for Bitcoin hasn't exhibited consistent bullish behavior, as evidenced by the majority of the years showing a decline in value or a relatively modest increase.

However, past performance is not indicative of future results, and various factors can influence Bitcoin's price movement beyond historical patterns.

Based on the information you have shared, it doesn't seem like there is much chance for the Bitcoin price to go up on Christmas. It is also easy to predict that the price may either remain stable, or there will be a higher chance of a downward trend. Apart from history, the reason for this is that people often go on vacation at Christmas, and because of the vacation, they often spend more time with their families. Majority of people exit the cryptocurrency market, due to which trading is negligible, and this will definitely have an impact on the market.

when the capital does not come in then the market price may go down instead of up. However, I don't think we can see any significant increase in the price of Bitcoin this Christmas. Different factors can influence each time.There is no specific period at which various factors may affect the market a lot.However, many experts are thinking that the last week of the year may be bearish in the market.

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Quote from: crwth on December 26, 2023, 04:16:30 AM

The primary thing about the changes in prices is the market. I think the following, on Christmas day, is different each time because of the investor's actions. Like how they would be in the holidays? Maybe in 2020, since there are no vacations or the pandemic is still rampant, it has increased in price because the money has nowhere to go. For 2021 however, the biggest decrease, probably because a lot of people already wanted to go on vacation or some sort. I believe that's the case and cannot classify how the investors are during the times.

Christmas is when people go with holidays, hang out with friends, meet their family members and it's special time each year. They will be less actively on cryptocurrency market even they can do it with mobile devices and Internet connection.

Whales and market makers will take advantage of Christmas and other holidays to dump the market. Usually they will go dumping the market than pumping it but this year is special and it raises a very uncertain big question.

Will the market be dumped or will it be pumped because of SEC decision on Bitcoin Spot ETF applications in next 2 weeks?

If it is in another year, I bet on dump but this year, even I think there are many reasons for Bitcoin to be dumped, SEC decision is a big uncertainty.

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The primary thing about the changes in prices is the market. I think the following, on Christmas day, is different each time because of the investor's actions. Like how they would be in the holidays? Maybe in 2020, since there are no vacations or the pandemic is still rampant, it has increased in price because the money has nowhere to go. For 2021 however, the biggest decrease, probably because a lot of people already wanted to go on vacation or some sort. I believe that's the case and cannot classify how the investors are during the times.

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Quote from: Relonage on December 25, 2023, 01:40:55 AM

Bitcoin's market performance during the Christmas period over the past several years has been as follows:

- 2022: Decrease of 2.7%
- 2021: Decrease of 11.9%
- 2020: Increase of 22.3%
- 2019: Decrease of 1.1%
- 2018: Decrease of 5.3%
- 2017: Increase of 4.1%

Since 2017, over the seven days following Christmas, the probability of a price decrease has been over 66%. This trend indicates a prevalent likelihood of a decline in Bitcoin's value during this particular period. It's noticeable that the market sentiment during Christmas for Bitcoin hasn't exhibited consistent bullish behavior, as evidenced by the majority of the years showing a decline in value or a relatively modest increase.

However, past performance is not indicative of future results, and various factors can influence Bitcoin's price movement beyond historical patterns.

I don't think that 7 days is enough to evaluate the price and comparison will come
because there is a need for certain time to make it successful in having a list,

and besides it is normal for the market to drop in the early end of December because
the season is ending so as the investors are taking their profits at least for a year , but what is
important is that we have mostly climbing from October to December things that we must be
thankful then.

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That's really nice
I wish you will update and add this year's Christmas performance to the list as well.

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Quote from: KingsDen on December 26, 2023, 02:43:07 AM

The few Christmas I witnessed in this forum(2021 and 2022), there's one thing that is common among them and that is price decrease in the Christmas day. I understood that it is because of some sell pressure by people who wants to enjoy their Christmas day with friends and loved ones. Currently, the reduction in price during yesterday Christmas was expected but it was moderate as the bitcoin price is currently still in the range of $$42, slightly off the $43 range.

If this Christmas didn't reduce the bitcoin price much, it shows that the bullish market is very much around. This is another evidence. Meanwhile, I will go and check what really happened the past years after the Christmas day. It can give me the clue of what I will be expecting this time.

Not only during the Christmas period, there is a decrease in prices in Consumer Behavior, this is also seen during holidays, especially Saturdays and Sundays. Some of them will sell a number of bitcoins to meet their shopping needs and enjoy a relaxing week with family and friends, although on the other hand it also has an impact on the market, causing a little pressure and I think currently this is not too much of a problem if we pay attention.

For long-term purchases, a decline is a good decision, but we have to make sure by looking at the existing data so that when we buy there won't be another decline after the decline with tips, combining several tools will give us the best signal with less risk. This means that we will easily know the direction of the next market trend and prepare to accumulate it again.

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Quote from: Relonage on December 25, 2023, 01:40:55 AM

Bitcoin's market performance during the Christmas period over the past several years has been as follows:

- 2022: Decrease of 2.7%
- 2021: Decrease of 11.9%
- 2020: Increase of 22.3%
- 2019: Decrease of 1.1%
- 2018: Decrease of 5.3%
- 2017: Increase of 4.1%

The few Christmas I witnessed in this forum(2021 and 2022), there's one thing that is common among them and that is price decrease in the Christmas day. I understood that it is because of some sell pressure by people who wants to enjoy their Christmas day with friends and loved ones. Currently, the reduction in price during yesterday Christmas was expected but it was moderate as the bitcoin price is currently still in the range of $$42, slightly off the $43 range.

If this Christmas didn't reduce the bitcoin price much, it shows that the bullish market is very much around. This is another evidence. Meanwhile, I will go and check what really happened the past years after the Christmas day. It can give me the clue of what I will be expecting this time.

This ought to be in reputation board.

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What is the drive to Bitcoin? A lot of person are positive about the ETF and also Halving by the side. Notwithstanding the decrement you are seeing is for a short term as the market is finding a resting position before it takes another major move.

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Quote from: YUriy1991 on December 25, 2023, 11:07:48 PM

Quote from: hugeblack on December 25, 2023, 08:44:33 PM

The only benefit is the rapid growth of Bitcoin, which is starting to slow down.

This part is quite easy to understand why this is so. It slows down because people are confused and currently many people need faster payments while still in the festive period and the New Year moment and have to look for brokers who offer urgent settlement options for fast transfers as late as we can wait until the next 1 working days.

Of course, people now need more cash at the end of the year. They may sell their assets to enjoy the turn of the year, which will result in crypto prices experiencing a correction.
We can only hope that the correction that occurs will not cause the price to decline too deeply.
The decline in the price of bitcoin will provide an opportunity for investors to increase the amount of bitcoin. They will start buying bitcoin at a low price and continue buying it even if the price of bitcoin continues to decline and could remain at a low price for some time.
But if we can't buy it yet, we must stay calm and wait for when we can buy bitcoin again.

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Quote from: hugeblack on December 25, 2023, 08:44:33 PM

The only benefit is the rapid growth of Bitcoin, which is starting to slow down.

This part is quite easy to understand why this is so. It slows down because people are confused and currently many people need faster payments while still in the festive period and the New Year moment and have to look for brokers who offer urgent settlement options for fast transfers as late as we can wait until the next 1 working days.

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