Topic: bitcommon - BTC/USD - Technical Analysis. (Read 5549 times)

12/20/13 BAR/Session - Starting 12/19/13 18:00 CST through 12/20/13 18:00 CST

12/18/13 was meant to start a break out move, except that it ended up from a lower low below the earlier Cycle low of 12/6 which held so far.

For the week starting 12/16/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 1700 before the month is out (reducing from 2440). The breakout move should start this week no later than 12/18/13

For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/20/13 session
STOPS & TARGETS to be evaluated on print of HOURLY CLOSES below/above these S/R (Support/Resistance) Pivots
S=690/665.51 (a daily close below 464 may mean the BTC story is over for a while). The actual print on 12/18/13 was 455 and the close was at 541
R=762.23/847/883/936.08

Likely 12/20 range - 690 - 883 and polarity of day should be low to high. Also the key resistance to overcome to negate the downside pressure is 936.08.

Cycles wise, BTC is likely to move higher into 12/21/13 3am CST. Let us see how 12/20 BAR plays out.

If the "Likely range" is breached you should look in the S/R rows for the next target down/up.
If S/R target is breached/conquered on an HOURLY CLOSE - high likelihood of achieving next S/R target in the list above.

Hello Thanks :-)

I am thick skinned and have been in this profession for decades. I am not intimidated at all and won't be. Just got busy nothing else.

One challenge I do have is that I don't have all hourly data for BTC/USD since inception - and the model development can take some time to gain accuracy with the limited historical data I have on HOURLIES. I do have the DAILIES data and the model but that doesn't tell me much on intraday behavior for which I need to code based on maximum possible hourlies data to extract various cycles. I am getting close and have been publishing whatever the model says as is and objectively. Folks have a choice to take it or leave it or produce something better.

With that said, real quick the Cycles are roughly up into 12/21/13 3-4 am CST. Potential target by then? 1103? Recall 1191 SELL hold was there so we continued lower and it hit the MOB (make or break) number that I had listed at 464 and closed above it. Alternate, scenario would be 754 keeps holding into the above time pivot, in which case we can head back lower (less preferred alternate). Hopefully, I will have my website ready in January 2013 and I can graphically show what the near term patterns may be.

I did make some progress on catching the nerves of underlying Cycles for BTC/USD in the past couple of days and hopefully the accuracy for intraday trading may go up from here. We will see if I get the next pivot on 12/21/13 3-4am CST right or PRICE hit. For those who understand trading - it is in essence alternation between PRICE & TIME (SPACE/TIME continuum).

I won't go away but at times life gets super busy that is all.

bitcommon - don't get trolled by these trolls, just keep doing what you do if you believe in it.

Yep...just stop.

You are damaging your reputation with this chaff.

12/18/13 BAR/Session - Starting 12/17/13 18:00 CST through 12/18/13 18:00 CST

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for the current BAR/Session so keep those in mind always if you are hell bent on trading BTC/USD short-term.

For the week starting 12/16/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out. The breakout move should start this week no later than 12/18/13

For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/17/13 session
HOURLY CLOSES
S=678.48/666/605.58 (below 464 BTC story may be over for a while)
R=762.23/847/891/936.08

Likely 12/17 range - 678.47 - 781.55 and polarity of day should be low to high, with 12-11am CST key turn

If the "Likely range" is breached you should look in the S/R rows for the next target down/up.
If S/R target is breached/conquered on an HOURLY CLOSE - high likelihood of achieving next S/R target in the list above.

12/17/13 BAR/Session - Starting 12/16/13 18:00 CST through 12/17/13 18:00 CST

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for the current BAR/Session so keep those in mind always if you are hell bent on trading BTC/USD short-term.

For the week starting 12/16/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out. The breakout move should start this week no later than 12/18/13

For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/17/13 session
HOURLY CLOSES
S=720/666/517/464 (below 464 BTC story may be over for a while)
R=810/847/936.08

Likely 12/17 range - 666 - 810 and polarity of day should be low to high, with 10-11pm CST key turn, then 8-9am CST key turn

If the "Likely range" is breached you should look in the S/R rows for the next target down/up. If S/R target is breached/conquered on an HOURLY CLOSE - high likelihood of achieving next S/R target in the list above.

Your predictions have been way too high each time.

12/16/13 BAR/Session - Starting 12/15/13 18:00 CST through 12/16/13 18:00 CST

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for the current BAR/Session so keep those in mind always if you are hell bent on trading BTC/USD short-term.

For the week starting 12/16/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out. The breakout move should start this week no later than 12/18/13

For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/16/13 session
HOURLY CLOSES
S=891.14/847/760
R=936.08/990.67/1030.96/1129.53/1150.33/1191/1229.83 (1229.93 strong R and likely cap for this week that causes a turn down)

Likely 12/16 range - (891.14) - (990.67-1013) and polarity of day should be mixed with a rise into 1am CST, then decline into 8am CST then higher into close. Below 847, something really went wrong on models another quick wash out to last week's lows but not break 760 on HOURLY CLOSES, and above 1013 - a move towards 1171 could build up this week.

If the "Likely range" is breached you should look in the S/R rows for the next target down/up. If S/R target is breached/conquered on an HOURLY CLOSE - high likelihood of achieving next S/R target in the list above.

Yes, as in the post

Trend is up and . STOPS in the post as well.

the trendlines are signaling a convergence and a possible upswing, if you ignore the quick sell off on the China news. especially on the 4h chart. are you seeing this with your analysis?

12/15/13 BAR/Session - Starting 12/14/13 18:00 CST through 12/15/13 18:00 CST

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for the current BAR/Session so keep those in mind always if you are hell bent on trading BTC/USD short-term.

For the week starting 12/9/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out. The breakout move should start this week no later than 12/18/13

For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/15/13 session
HOURLY CLOSES
S=889/832/801.96
R=936.08/990/1030.96/1129.53/1150.33/1191/1229.83 (1229.93 strong R and likely cap for this week that causes a turn down)

Likely 12/15 range - (832) - (959-1010) and polarity of day should be L to H. Below 832, something really went wrong on models another quick wash out to last week's lows but not break 760 on HOURLY CLOSES, and above 1010 - a move towards 1171 could build up next week.

If the "Likely range" is breached you should look in the S/R rows for the next target down/up. If S/R target is breached/conquered on an HOURLY CLOSE - high likelihood of achieving next S/R target in the list above.

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for 12/14 BAR so keep those in mind always if you are hell bent on trading BTC/USD short-term.

For the week starting 12/9/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out.
For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/14 session
S=889/841/801.96
R=959.9/1035/1085/1119/1150.33/1191/1229.83 (1229.93 strong R and likely cap for this week that causes a turn down)

Likely 12/14 range - (889) - (1035-1085) and give back into close possible at 6pm CST. Below 841, something really went wrong on models another quick wash out to last week's lows but not break 810.96 on HOURLY CLOSES, and above 1035 - a move towards 1171 could build up next week. As always, if the likely range numbers are breached you should look in the S/R rows for the next target down/up. If S/R target is breached/conquered on an HOURLY CLOSE - high likelihood of achieving next S/R target in the list above.

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for 12/13 BAR so keep those in mind always if you are hell bent on trading BTC/USD short-term.

For the week starting 12/9/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out.
For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/13 session
S=889/841/801.96
R=959.9/1068/1119/1150.33/1191/1229.83 (1229.93 strong R and likely cap for this week that causes a turn down)

Likely 12/13 range - (889) - (1068). Below 801.96, something really went wrong on models another quick wash out to last week's lows but not break 760 on HOURLY CLOSES, and above 1068 - a move towards 1171 could build up this week. As always, if the likely range numbers are breached you should look in the S/R rows for the next target down/up. If S/R target is breached/conquered on an HOURLY CLOSE - high likelihood of achieving next S/R target in the list above.

I think the gentleman was alluding to this statement in my objective analysis report

Lowest forecasted Hourly CLOSE for 12/12 BAR was 860 and actual is 870.01. Upper target is a miss and 801.96 still holds.

Maybe he could, but I'm not too sure myself, but I'm sure there is something going on here.

Could you be any more vague?

There is something really wrong going on here. And now.

I couldn't get on to the site all evening! But here we go for 12/12 session

BTC/USD Cycles studies had shown that 12/6 could be an important low, the actual low occurred right at the end of 12/6 at about 1:45 am CST on 12/7. This low is likely to hold for rest of the December 2013. STOPS are mentioned below for 12/12 BAR so keep those in mind always if you are hell bent on trading BTC/USD short-term.

For the week starting 12/9/13,
December 2013 remains pointed up with a likely target of 2440 before the month is out.
For this target to come into light > 1191 weekly close is required and > 1423.15 print will send BTC into warp speed higher for the month of December 2013.

Until then,
SELL hold is at @ 1191

For 12/12 session
S=860/841/801.96
R=1006/1068/1119/1171/1191/1229.83 (1229.93 strong R and likely cap for this week that causes a turn down)

Likely 12/12 range - (860) - (1068). Below 801.96, something really went wrong on models another quick wash out to last week's lows but not break them, and above 1068 - a move towards 1171 could build up this week. As always, if the likely range numbers are breached you should look in the S/R rows for the next target down/up.

Sell hold is where the last SELL occurred in BTC/USD that caused the down leg to 576.

S=Support
R=Resistance

HTH