While many analysts and experts expect the inevitable explosive growth of cryptocurrencies, at least one person stands alone and does not rule out that the price of bitcoin will continue to decline. In his latest forecast CEO BitMEX Arthur Hayes mentions the mark of $ 2000-it is to this level, he suggests, may fall the first cryptocurrency.
This forecast was announced by the head of the popular derivatives exchange on Friday, November 2, in the next issue of the crypto trader Digest
Earlier this week, Hayes said that bearish sentiment in the market could last for another year and a half.
Specific price framework in the forecast, he did not name, but in the subsequent letter to the investor, the head of BitMEX already calls the direct numbers.
According to him, while studying charts traders often consider the beginning of the bearish market the moment when the asset falls below the cyclic peak, a more preferable strategy is to start counting from the moment when the bitcoin price falls below the 200-day moving average (DMA).
Based on this methodology, bitcoin entered bearish territory on March 12, when its price was $9152.
Since then, falling below the level of 200 DMA, bitcoin has lost only 37% in value. However, taking into account the previous performance of the first cryptocurrency, when it fell significantly lower, Hayes believes that before the end of the bearish cycle is still very far – according to him, before the initiative goes to the bulls, the price of the cryptocurrency could potentially drop to $2000.
"How deep can we go? A 75% drop from $9152 will bring us to $2000. So the range between $2000 – $3000 is my new active point. Just do not tell Michelle Lee," wrote Arthur Hayes, referring in the last sentence to the leading CNBC, which took him a recent interview.
As other reasons supporting his forecast, the head of BitMEX called the current low volatility of bitcoin.
"Contrary to popular belief, bitcoin needs volatility if it wants to gain widespread acceptance. The price of bitcoin is the best and most transparent way to determine the health of an ecosystem. It [volatility] shows the world that something is happening-whether it's good or bad," says Hayes.
Therefore, he argues, if volatility remains at the current low levels, the price will gradually decline.
According to him, the best thing that traders can do is to try to predict when the bottom will really be, however, as Hayes somewhat sarcastically remarks, they probably will not have the courage for serious actions at this point.
"You will know when the bottom has come. But, most likely, you will be too afraid to press this terrible button "to Buy", — Hayes added.
